Cash plays: Saint-Denis, Cutelaba, Charriere, Sy,
GPP plays: Brito, Klein, Lapilus, Cavalcanti, Oki
Value: Altamirano, Allen, Jousset, Zhelezynkova, Frevola
After UFC held a PPV at the sphere they are heading across the country for a fight night card in Paris, France! We have a whopping 14 fights on this slate so we will try to make this breakdown shorter so you can have some quick builds on a jam packed day!
We start off with our main event in Benoit Saint Denis vs. Renato Moicano. We will be siding with the home favorite in Denis because of the upside he has to post a huge score. Both of these fighters are elite grapplers but BSD’s strength over Moicano should provide the slight edge in that department. When it comes to striking, BSD has the clear edge, Moicano does not want this fight on the feet nor does he have to chin to keep it there.
Our next matchup is Brendan Allen vs. Nassourdine Imavov and we will quickly take the underdog shot with Allen here. The reason we like Allen here in this spot is because Imavov has not faced a grappler like Allen who has fixed up a lot of flaws in his game. We have to give credit to Brendan Allen because his cardio was what hurt him the most in fights. As a grappler he would attempt to put on a pace that he simply couldn’t keep. That is no longer an issue and he has displayed excellent cardio in his recent fights. Now he faces Imavov who has faced nothing but strikers recently, and we expect Allen to be able to maintain a pace and give Imavov problems with the grappling that he hasn’t previously encountered with his past opponents.
We have a fight that we feel the odds should be bigger towards the favorite in Joanderson Brito who takes on William Gomis. The biggest flaw on Gomis is that he is a low volume fighter that can’t put combinations together. Joanderson Brito on the other hand may be low volume as well, but what makes the difference here is that he is an aggressive fighter that will constantly put on the pressure. Not only is he the aggressive fighter, but he is the stronger fighter that will have the bigger shots and put on more damage to Gomis. In addition, Brito can take this fight to the ground if he wanted to as well so it becomes hard not like the Brito side when Gomis does not present a threat whatsoever.
Now we have an exciting fighter in Bryan Battle who takes on Kevin Jousset. We love this spot here because this is a really sneaky spot to get leverage over the exciting striker people want to play. Bryan Battle doesn’t have the clear striking edge here that people think he may have though. Battle has also gotten by his fights not needing to showcase his takedown defense. We expect Jousset to test that takedown defense and he likely will be able to takedown Battle to the ground because he has yet to show us he can defend against grapplers. Jousset also isn’t a dud on the feet either, while Battle may be a solid striker, this is likely a 50/50 fight in a striking affair. Take the value here with Kevin Jousset.
This brings us to our next fight with Morgan Charriere vs. Gabriel Miranda where the heavy favorite in Charriere is the side we will take. We will try to keep the breakdowns short for heavy favorites, and Charriere is a heavy favorite because he has the power and grappling advantage over Miranda. It really is as simple as that and is the reason he is one of the highest priced fighters on this slate.
Our next matchup is a 50/50 spot with Fares Ziam taking on Matt Frevola. Matt Frevola has a problem, but we like him still in this spot. Matt Frevola’s problem is that he has a questionable chin. The only reason he gets away with it in this matchup is because Fares Ziam is not a power puncher and I am confident he can’t knock any of us out. My point here is that Frevola will not fear a KO here, and we expect that he will be able to initiate his grappling game plan here and make this a scrappy fight that Ziam does not want.
We are right back to another 50/50 spot on this card as Ion Cutelaba takes on Ivan Erslan. We know what Cutelaba is, he is a ferocious grappler that’s very strong but he has horrific fight IQ and a poor gas tank. If Cutelaba doesn’t take out his opponent in round 1, he becomes an extremely sweaty fighter to back. With that being said , we still like Cutelaba which goes to show how much we dislike Erslan. The reason we dislike Erslan is because of his poor durability which just doesn’t matchup well with the round 1 aggression of Cutelaba.
We return to a shorter breakdown as undefeated Oumar Sy is the heavy favorite against Da Woon Jung. This is a showcase matchup for Sy in front of his home crowd as he has the advantage in both the striking and grappling department. The hype is real on this prospect as he has fight ending power to pair with his elite grappling and submission skills. We really love the upside that Sy brings to the table in this spot.
Ludovit Klein is the biggest favorite on the card against Roosevelt Roberts. We clearly side with Klein and the reason we do is because of his elite striking that will be a nightmare for his opponent who has durability issues. In addition, Klein has shown his range using wrestling so we have that to like about him as well.
Taylor Lapilus is the next winning fighter we discuss as he takes on Vince Morales. The one way to beat Lapilus is by taking him down, but Morales does not have the good grappling necessary to do so. Therefore, this fight will likely be won by Lapilus because he has the striking edge but is a GPP play due to his inability to finish his opponents.
We were already skeptical of Ailin Perez as there are red flags in her game such as her striking game. One factor we usually don’t take into account unless it’s that bad is the weigh-ins. Not only did Perez miss weight but she looked horrific on the scales, shaking on her way out. We feel that the weight cut went really bad and it may be a nightmare scenario for one fighter that plays into the hands of the other fighter in Dariya Zheleznykova. We expect Dariya to stuff Perez’s takedowns and to simply win a 15 minute striking affair and land the better damage that the judges are looking for in this fight.
Another 50/50 fight is what we got here between Victor Altamirano and Daniel Barez. We give the slight edge to Victor Altamirano because he has the solid and cardio we are looking for in this matchup vs. Barez. Daniel Barez is a fighter that uses up his gas tank in the first round before significantly falling off in rounds 1-2. We expect Victor to lose round one then pick apart Barez on the feet with his volume striking while Barez deals with his cardio issues not being able to match Altamirano’s pace and striking volume. Fantastic live betting spot to look at if you are able to bet on it with Barez most likely winning round 1.
This will be a short breakdown due to the GPP nature of this fight. We side with Jacqueline Cavalcanti against Nora Cornolle because her elite striking and tremendous volume is what wins her this fight. This fight is heavily favored to go over 2.5 rounds so that tells you the upside on this fight isn’t good enough to make an optimal lineup.
Our last fight to discuss brings us Bolaji Oki who takes on Chris Duncan. The difference in this is if Dunan’s chin can hold up because he tends to have poor durability when faced with power. We don’t think his chin will hold up though because Oki has the fight-ending power to not only win this fight, but post a high score with his constant search for the KO.