Cash: Mingyang, Pavlovich, Yadong, Dias
GPP: Haddon, Matthews, Asakura, Tsuruya, Meng
Value: Lookboonmee, Kangjie, Sumudaerji, Hill, Souza, Lee, Gurule, Menifield, Aoriqileng
Welcome to an early MMA slate as we travel to China to showcase its fighters!
The main event features Song Yadong against Deiveson Figueiredo, and we’re siding with the heavy favorite. At this point in his career, Figueiredo appears to be past his prime and doesn’t bring much to the table. The attributes that once made him dangerous just aren’t there anymore, and we expect him to get finished at some point in this fight. Yadong brings sneaky power to go along with advantages in both the striking and grappling departments. This is an excellent option to start your lineups with.
One of our favorite plays on this slate is Zhang Mingyang as he takes on Alonzo Menifield. He had a horrific performance in front of his home crowd last time out, but we expect a bounce-back performance here. Menifield’s power isn’t as intimidating as it seems, and he tends to gas out after just a few minutes. Mingyang has both the power and striking edge here, and we like him to use his aggression to find an early finish.
The stud version of Mingyang is Sergei Pavlovich, who takes on Tallison Teixeira. Pavlovich has the power edge here, which is all we need. Teixeira is coming off a poor performance in which he showed that when he’s met with aggression from a fighter with significant power, he crumbles. That’s exactly what we have here, and we expect Pavlovich to be the aggressor and find a finish with the power he possesses.
Kai Asakura finally gets a favorable matchup after being matched up with grappling specialists. He takes on Cameron Smotherman, who will be happy to strike with him. The problem for Smotherman is that Asakura boasts significant advantages in both speed and striking. He’ll be able to put together fantastic combinations while avoiding incoming strikes. In addition, he carries power of his own, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him find a finish against a fighter who hasn’t faced power like his.
Jake Matthews takes on Carlston Harris in our next matchup. We’re siding with the favorite in Matthews because this feels like his fight to lose. Harris doesn’t present much danger that concerns us. He has a reach advantage, but he doesn’t do much with it. Matthews is a grappler who should have his way here, and he understands how to win rounds minute by minute. He has solid cardio, and with the speed advantage, he should be effective defensively, which is why Harris’s reach advantage doesn’t worry us. He is a solid stud to consider in GPPs.
Our first value play is Sumudaerji, who takes on Alex Perez. The reason we like Sumudaerji is because he is the significantly better striker here. He holds advantages in speed, volume, and power. Perez is going to want to wrestle, but we feel that Sumudaerji can stuff enough takedowns to keep this fight standing. If the fight remains on the feet, Sumudaerji can impose his will, and there’s upside for a finish in the later rounds.
We have a similar matchup in our next fight as Luis Felipe Diaz takes on Yisak Lee. We love Diaz in this spot because he is a solid wrestler, and Lee likely won’t be able to offer much resistance to the takedowns. Lee is primarily a striker, but not an especially dangerous one, so we aren’t overly concerned when this fight is standing. Diaz can take his time setting up takedowns because he won’t be worried about absorbing significant damage. This is one of the better mid-range options on the slate.
Ding Meng is another fantastic mid-range option as he takes on Jose Souza. The reason we like this play is because Souza struggles when he’s forced onto the back foot and pressured aggressively. That’s exactly what he’ll get here against Meng, who is known for his aggression and power on the feet. We believe Meng will put together impressive combinations and deliver a dominant striking performance in this matchup.
Another stud we like on this slate is Cody Haddon in his matchup against Aoriqileng. One man’s strength is another man’s weakness, as we have a grappling specialist facing an average striker. There is a major gap between these two because Aoriqileng struggles tremendously with takedown defense and is also prone to submissions. In fact, he has been submitted in every round throughout his career, which gives us confidence that Haddon can find a submission finish at some point in this fight.
The next fighter we like is Rei Tsuruya as he takes on Luis Gurule. We don’t think much of Gurule, who is fairly average across the board. The way to beat Tsuruya is with both power and volume, and Gurule simply doesn’t possess either of those qualities. We expect Tsuruya to secure takedowns with ease and control Gurule for extended periods. Gurule doesn’t scramble particularly well either, so this projects as a dominant wrestling performance from Tsuruya.
We have two women’s fights coming up, and we’re siding with the value plays in both since these matchups are projected to be competitive. The first is Angela Hill versus Xiong Jingnan. This is a fantastic value opportunity because Hill typically struggles when opponents can consistently take her down. That shouldn’t be the case here, as Jingnan is a striker who prefers to keep the fight standing. That’s good news for Hill, whose experience should shine in this type of matchup. She’s seen it all and has consistently performed well against strikers. For us, it comes down to volume, and we believe Hill has the edge in that department. We also like that Hill can mix in takedowns to keep Jingnan guessing. Hill is a solid value option who can help you spend up elsewhere.
The next value play we like is Loma Lookboonmee over Jaqueline Amorim. Amorim is a one-dimensional fighter who wants to wrestle and offers very little on the feet. That’s fine with us because Lookboonmee can counter-wrestle and secure takedowns of her own. If this fight stays standing, Lookboonmee holds a significant striking advantage. With judges prioritizing damage in close fights, we believe Lookboonmee is the rightful pick here.
The final fight on this slate features Zhu Kangjie and Rodrigo Vera. We’re siding with the value in Kangjie, who offers the higher upside in this matchup. He is a talented striker who carries power in both his individual shots and combinations, making a finish a realistic possibility. Vera, on the other hand, is an average striker who lacks significant power, which is a concern. His lack of power often causes opponents not to respect his offense, encouraging them to fight more aggressively. We like Zhu Kangjie to put on an impressive striking performance in front of his home crowd.