Cash: Johnson (MH), Ribovics, Makhachev, Orolbai, Robertson, Fernandez, Luque
GPP: Ribovics, D. Johnson, Dern, Turner, Abdul-Malik, Fernando, Chapolin, Magny
Value: C. Johnson, Luque, Garry, Fernandez (cash), Robertson (cash), Njokuani
Welcome to another UFC card as we have a fun PPV on our hands! Unlike last week where favorites went 11-1, we have some fun values that can make for some fun building because we believe the underdogs are live to win.
The main event gives us Islam Makhachev and Ian Machado Garry in a fun matchup. Right off the bat, we are going to side with the value in Garry. This matchup is going to be all about the takedown defense. We want to make it known that Ian Garry will surely be taken down considering Makhachev is one of the best wrestlers in UFC history. The question is whether Makhachev can consistently take Garry down over the course of five rounds and keep him there. That’s where the stand resides because we believe Garry will be able to fend off takedowns more times than not. We believe in his takedown defense and his ability to scramble. If takedowns are being defended, then the fight will be had on the feet where Garry has a clear edge. It won’t be pretty, but we believe Garry can squeak out a win by winning the striking exchanges and defending over half of Makhachev’s takedown attempts. Give us the value to kick off this writeup, in a fight expected to go 5 full rounds which provides much more benefit to the underdog in terms of DFS value. In cash games, you want to play Mak because in 5 rounds he’s likely to put up a solid floor score even if things don’t really go his way. In GPPs, if Garry is stuffing the takedowns we absolutely see a path to Mak not being optimal at his high price tag even with 5 rounds to work.
Next up is the Women’s title match between Mackenzie Dern and Gillian Robertson. The trap value of the slate is easily Gillian Robertson at her price tag. People will fall in love with her as a value because she’s cheap and can wrestle. We expect Mackenzie Dern to handle business here though considering she’s better everywhere. We believe Dern is the better grappler and has a slight edge in striking. While the edge in striking may be slight, it’s the leg kicks that can separate her as she wears out the legs of Robertson. Lastly, with the cardio edge going to Dern that is the cherry on top for us because she is built up for five round fights, unlike Robertson who will likely be unable to wrestle over the course of five rounds. Give us Mackenzie Dern as a solid stud to consider in your lineups. The only downside is that the title fights typically attract more ownership than they really deserve based on projections, so fading the fight is also viable in GPPs. In cash, you need to play Robertson because she’s expected to get 5 rounds and is only about +180, which is really good for her price. She will be super chalky in all formats, and you just don’t fade a play like this in cash, but you certainly can in GPPs. I do want to point out once again that most people will think they have to play a side in the title fights, but you really don’t. It could easily not produce an optimal score despite the possibility of 5 rounds.
Next up we have the return of a rejuvenated Jalin Turner against Kaue Fernandez. We love Jalin Turner in this spot who is being severely underestimated while Fernandez is being overrated. This fight is nearing pick’em odds and we think that is so off. This is a major step up in competition for Fernandez. Jalin Turner has insane speed, which is lethal considering the power he carries behind his strikes. Fernandez does utilize leg kicks well but we believe Turner will be able to counter those in this fight. This is a spot where we believe Turner can find a finish and continue his resurgence against an unproven opponent. The only downside to using him in GPPs is that he’s more expensive than Fernandez by a decent margin, but doesn’t project to be that low owned because he’s quite popular, so lots of people will believe in him like we do. That makes it a tricky spot for DFS, but an easy decision when it comes to betting his ML. Fernandez is cash viable simply because he’s pretty cheap in a matchup that Vegas has priced as a coin clip.
One of the top studs on this slate is Mansur Abdul–Malik as he takes on Dustin Soltzfus. Abdul-Malik is simply better in every aspect of MMA. He has the bigger power, a speed advantage, and the striking advantage. In addition, he can utilize his wrestling if necessary, which gives us extra reassurance in terms of paying a steep price for Abdul-Malik. Soltzfus is prone to being finished so we expect one of our top studs of the slate to get the finish early on. He’s priced just a little high for his projection, which should help keep his ownership in check in GPPs.
Edson Barbosa and Esteban Ribovics kick off the main card in a striker’s delight. Ribovics is one of our favorite studs of the slate because the finishing upside here is incredible. Barbosa may have good leg kicks but his speed has slowed down significantly and he is vulnerable to being finished as his chin is starting to feel the wear and tear of all the battles over the years. Ribovics brings fantastic combinations to go along with massive volume. It is likely that the volume of Ribovics overwhelms Barbosa and he finds a finish in the later rounds. Ribovics is our optimal stud as he leads all studs in PT/$ but is only 5th in projected ownership, which is rare to see.
The prelims are headlined by Chidi Njokuani and Joel Alvarez in another fun striker’s delight. The path to beating Njokuani is by taking him down and holding him there. We don’t believe Joel Alvarez will make a constant effort to take it to the mat though considering his game is in the striking department. The key thing here is that we rate both men about even in the striking department, which makes us side with the value. It’s also easy to side with the value in Njokuani when he has the reach advantage in this spot. We like this value to squeak out a victory in what we anticipate to be a closer fight than the odds indicate. On a slate with a few easy value clicks based on Vegas odds, we should see all the rest of the values lower owned, Njokuani included. Alvarez is a bit overowned for his projection, and we believe that he’s being overprojected in this matchup, so he’s an easy fade.
This next fight needs very little analysis since there is a price mistake. Charles Johnson is easily the best value on the slate priced as a punt play. His original opponent withdrew from the fight so now he is a favorite against the short notice replacement Eduardo Chapolin. In addition, we do believe that Charles Johnson would be the rightful pick anyway since we give him the striking edge in this fight. Chapolin is a viable pivot since Johnson will carry massive ownership if you want to get unique. He’s priced correctly, or even a little underpriced himself if you don’t think Johnson deserves to be the small favorite. Johnson has fought down to the level of his competition before, so it’s not out of the realm of possibilities he loses and looks terrible. We do feel that Johnson does have the experience and striking edge necessary to win this fight, so we’d rather back him at a much lower price, but it’s hard to ignore the upside of taking a reasonably priced fighter opposing massive chalk at near even odds. A full stack of this fight is also viable as it’s likely to go the distance and Johnson could be optimal even in a loss at his price. That’s asking a lot to go right though, so again the preferred path is to eat the Johnson chalk and move on.
The next value we like is Vicente Luque as he takes on Tresean Gore. There is a lot to like about Luque and the experience is certainly beneficial here. Gore does have power but he doesn’t have the technical striking to make use of it. Luque also has power and Gore has been prone to getting finished via strikes. Gore loves to wrestle but going down that route is far from ideal considering the submission credentials of Luque. With a cardio and volume edge, siding with Luque as the value is easy for us to do.
The next value we like is Neil Magny as he takes on Ramiz Brahimaj. We simply don’t rate Brahimaj to be a good fighter at all. He is pretty much average at everything and we don’t believe he has the power to knockout Magny. An experienced fighter like Neil Magny will be able to make his time in the ring productive, being able to throw more volume and take this fight to the ground if necessary. This is one of the easier GPP values to side with considering we don’t fear the other side of the fight, but Magny should certainly be the lower owned option.
The highest priced stud on the slate is Myktybek Orolbai as he takes on Jeremiah Wells. This is a fantastic spend up option because Orolbai will put up a pace that Wells likely cannot handle. In addition, Orolbai has the punching power and submission skills to finish this fight however he likes. Jeremiah Wells is a very mediocre fighter so it wouldn’t surprise us to see Orolbai get a quick finish with the elite skills he brings to the table. The only downside here is just the ownership and price, and the fact that using him costs you other studs that could also put up a huge score.
One of our favorite midrange plays of the slate is Donte Johnson as he takes on Eric McConico. The reason we like Johnson is because of the power he carries in his strikes. He carries the kind of power that can easily end this fight early. McConico is known for having a glass chin, which makes this matchup a nightmare for him. We expect Donte Johnson to dominate this fight and give McConico a third loss via KO/TKO.
The last fight to discuss is a matchup between Rafael Tobias and Lucas Fernando. Someday someone will eventually expose the poor takedown defense of Fernando, but that day will likely not be today. Lucas Fernando is an excellent stud to consider because he is a fantastic striker with immense power in his punches. Rafael Tobias looked terrible in his last fight against Nurgozhay. If he can’t keep up with Nurgozhay in the striking department, then he certainly will have no answer for the power and overwhelming pressure that Fernando will give him. We expect Fernando to find the knockout finish at some point in this fight.