Optimal: Hernandez, Rodrigues, Wint, Douglas,
GPP: Jones, Barbosa, Judice, Gaziev, Young
Value: Padilla, Nzechukwu, Spivac, Schultz, Dolidze, Rodriguez, Mederos, Emmers, Reed
Welcome to another UFC Fight Night. We have some fun fights to discuss on this card!
The main event gives us Anthony Hernandez against Gregory Rodriguez. We are going to side with the hometown favorite in Fluffy Hernandez here. We want to make it known that Rodriguez is viable as a value due to his one shot knockout power, and we have seen Hernandez crumble against powerful fighters before. We want to disregard the last matchup against Strickland though because he was facing one of the best the division has to offer who carries solid takedown defense. Hernandez won’t face the same problems here considering this is a significant step down in competition for him. Hernandez loves to chain wrestle and we believe he can do that here with success. He has solid enough striking to make his faints believable and to also hold his own if this stays on the feet. He has the cardio advantage here and the wrestling will only zap the power of Rodriguez. We can see a submission finish or a very decisive decision win via wrestling. Robocop will almost certainly need a knockout to be optimal.
The Co-Main event gives us our first value as we side with Serghei Spivac over Vitor Petrino. We will say, we were super impressed with the striking and volume of Petrino against what we felt was a better striker in Asplund. We don’t expect that same success to be had here though as Spivac can take that away real quick. We like Spivac because he has a gameplan to wrestle and he does a great job of sticking to it. We envision Spivac being able to initiate the clinch very easily and work on getting the takedown from there. Petrino doesn’t have the greatest of gas tanks so even if a takedown doesn’t transpire right away, Spivac will still be able to wear on the cardio of Petrino. Once Spivac gets the takedown, he knows how to maintain tremendous top control, which we can see him being able to do for at least 2 of the 3 rounds. Give us Serghei Spivac to win this fight by decision with his wrestling chops.
This is a matchup where we simply have no interest siding with Reinier De Ridder at his price over Roman Dolidze. We believe that Roman Dolidze is a viable value that is live to win this fight. We are taking the better striker here with power that can end this fight and make RDR quit. We understand that RDR can have success with wrestling, but he has poor cardio so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that takedowns will be harder to come by in the later rounds. We can easily see Dolidze losing round one and being able to find his moments and shift the momentum in rounds 2 and 3. We would rather side with the value who has various paths to victory here with either a decision or knockout win as the better striker, so that is the route we will take with a low owned value play in Roman Dolidze.
The first stud we like on this slate is Mason Jones as he takes on Marquel Mederos. The problem here for Mederos is that he doesn’t have the power to cause problems for Mason Jones. Without the worry of power coming his way, Jones will be able to initiate his constant pressure and overwhelm him with his incredible volume. We love Mason Jones because he has a massive cardio advantage and will be able to use his wrestling in the later rounds as well. This is also a significant step down from his last opponent so we expect Jones to put up a better score than the one he did against Sola and extend his win streak to four.
The GPP stud of this slate is going to be Carli Judice as she takes on Jeisla Chavez. The problem here is that a decision will likely not be optimal for Judice compared to the studs in her range. She does have fantastic striking and a power advantage to find the finish in the later rounds. The only reason she makes for an interesting pivot is because she has the volume to pair with the knockdown potential to be able to rack up an optimal score with a finish. Carli Judice is an interesting low owned option to consider, but the fight is slightly favored to go the distance.
The highest priced stud on this slate is Anthony Wint against Terrance Chatman. We believe there is an extremely high chance that Chatman dies within the first minute. If you can somehow afford his insanely lofty price, there is a live chance for Wint to get 125+ in this matchup and break the slate. You can certainly expect a safe 100+ score on DK at minimum because this will likely not get out of the first round.
The next stud we like is Lerryan Douglas as he takes on Jamall Emmers. People will say the resumé of Douglas is suspect and we agree it is. The problem is that Emmers isn’t the fighter to expose him. Lerryan Douglas is still a very talented striker with massive power to end this fight quite easily. Emmers looked good in his last fight because he took on an irresponsible brawler. That will not be the case here as Douglas is a technical striker that will make Emmers pay with his counter striking. Emmers can be prone to being finished by the right striker and we believe Douglas is the right striker to get the finish here. Douglas is in a tough spot though as far as the slate is concerned because he doesn’t project quite as well as other studs, but will be chalky because he’s a bit easier to build with. He’s a solid cash play because of how he fits builds, and he’s viable in GPPs but just consider that some of the ownership will come from convenience fitting in builds rather than truly being the optimal play.
This next fight is such an ugly one as we have two untrustworthy fighters with Shamil Gaziev taking on Kennedy Nzechukwu. Gaziev has been knocked out two times in a row and for that reason, we will take the value shot with Nzechukwu. We aren’t siding with Nzechukwu because we believe he will definitely find the knockout. We are siding with him because we believe he is taking on a timid Gaziev. Being knocked out three times in the UFC, especially two times in a row, might force Gaziev to approach this fight in a more shy way to avoid a third knockout loss. If that happens to be the case, Nzechukwu can win this fight utilizing his massive reach and pile up the volume over the course of three rounds. We believe Nzechukwu will have the cardio advantage so he will only look better the longer this fight goes. Fair warning, Nzechukwu is live to get knocked out at any point in this fight, which makes siding with him an insane sweat. He is also live to be the third straight person to knockout Gaziev. There are multiple paths to victory here for Nzechukwu, making him a viable underdog pick. We think the winner of this fight has a pretty good shot at being optimal, making Gaziev GPP viable as well.
The next matchup is the 50/50 fight and we will be siding with the value in Chris Padilla over Nasrat Haqparast. Chris Padilla has continued to make improvements that we are super encouraged by and frankly he should be on a five fight winning streak if the judges didn’t screw him over. Nasrat Haqparast on the other hand got completely flatlined by Salkilld and comes into this fight with the same worries we feel Gaziev has. We like Chris Padilla because he has various paths to victory. We don’t believe Haqparast will be able to get into a striking rhythm because Padilla has the power to put him away. In addition, we love that Padilla has solid wrestling to take this fight to the ground if he needs to. We believe we have two fighters on different trajectories and we want to side with Chris Padilla who has looked better and better with every fight he has taken.
The second highest priced fighter of the slate is Marcio Barbosa who looks extremely good against Ryan Ruse so we will keep this breakdown short. We love Marcio Barbosa to get a knockout because he is a technical striker with massive power. That kind of fighter is gonna prove to be bad news for Ryan Ruse who is an aggressive fighter. We like aggression but the problem is that he’s going to be walking into power shots he has yet to encounter in his MMA career. We believe Barbosa will get the knockout early on and makes for an interesting payup option, although we’re a bit more confident in Rint.
This next fight feels like an auto-fade for us as Shanelle Dyer takes on Elise Reed. Dyer easily has the advantages everywhere with the striking, power, speed and cardio. The problem here is that Dyer is way too expensive and that we believe Reed can survive at least a round. A finish is very much on the table as Reed has been finished in rounds 2-3 in her last 4 losses. By that point, we don’t believe that Dyer has the volume necessary to put up a score similar to her stud counterparts. She is worth a dart throw if you are playing 20+ entries, otherwise you can fade this fight.
We get another value we like as Wes Schultz takes on Jackson McVey. We believe the odds are factoring in the durability issues of Schultz but he has been knocked out by absolute power monsters. We don’t believe McVey is a power monster. In addition, the one thing Schultz can do well is grab submissions and McVey has a weakness with those, being submitted in his first two losses. We love taking the shot with Schultz as he knows his clear path to victory and will try to initiate the clinch early to avoid any potential power McVey may have early on that could pose a problem. We expect an uncomfortable sweat that ends in a good score for Schultz.
The last fight to discuss is between Gauge Young and Stan Dorsainvil. We are going to give the slight edge to Young here due to having the better takedown defense. Both men can strike and wrestle pretty decently. The problem is that we don’t think the wrestling will be as available for Dorsainvil due to Young having solid takedown defense. We believe Gauge Young will be able to mix things up to win on the scorecards and a cardio edge solidifies this play for us in what looks to be a competitive fight.