Optimal: Hamlin, Larson, Byron, Logano, Reddick, Gragson, Nemechek, Custer
GPP: Bell, Blaney, Elliott, Chastain, Buescher
NASCAR heads to Bristol today for 500 laps of intense racing, tire wear, and strategic chaos. Practice sessions have made it crystal clear: tires are degrading quickly, wearing down to the cords. This will put a premium on drivers who excel at tire management, typically veterans with proven skill in these scenarios. Expect the race to be somewhat unpredictable, adding volatility and opportunities for DFS players.
Dominators are critical at a short track like Bristol due to the 500 laps available. Denny Hamlin, starting 4th, is our top dominator target. His elite practice speeds and strong Bristol history make him an ideal candidate to lead significant laps early. Kyle Larson, starting 3rd, should also be a core dominator play due to his excellent long-run speed and proven ability to maintain tires over extended runs. Playing both of them is undoubtedly tough, but if they both dominate (which I think is very possible), they will both find their ways into the optimal lineup, even if it means having a complete scrub included as well. Christopher Bell, starting slightly further back in 7th, has potential but is more suited as a secondary option after Hamlin or Larson.
Alex Bowman starts on the pole and has the most optimal path to leading laps. However, with the expected tire wear, I am hesitant to eat the ownership on Bowman, who is definitely worse than the trio above. There is way too much variance expected today for me to play the pole sitter when he is the 6th or 7th fastest car at best.
Place differential plays are headlined by William Byron, who starts 26th. Byron is expensive but brings massive upside with the potential to climb into the top 5. Lock him in, especially in cash games and single-entry tournaments. Joey Logano is similarly appealing, starting deep in 38th. While I do not believe he has the same top 5 potential as Byron, the sheer number of positions he can gain makes him a key building block in most lineups. These two drivers represent safe floors with huge scoring potential, but I would prioritize Byron if choosing between the two. Logano will for sure improve his starting position, but I do not believe he can outscore a correctly picked dominator at Bristol.
Value picks require careful selection today if we choose to jam dominators. John Hunter Nemechek and Cole Custer look like phenomenal cheap plays. JHN was blazing fast in practice and has way too good of a hot-rod to fade when starting 32nd. Custer impressed in practice, and also fits that veteran mold that may be able to manage his tires. Finally, Noah Gragson looks like an optimal value piece to finish off your lineups. He has historically performed well at Bristol and has expressed confidence entering this weekend. If chaos ensues due to tire wear, Gragson could capitalize for a strong finish and DFS performance.
Overall, your ideal build should feature at least two clear dominators (Hamlin, Larson, Bell, Blaney, Byron), strong place differential options (Byron, Logano, Chastain), and targeted value plays (JHN, Custer, Gragson). Keep tire wear in mind throughout your lineup decisions—prioritize drivers who can manage their equipment and navigate today’s potential chaos.
Good luck, and let’s take down those tournaments!