Optimal: Blaney, Elliott, Bell, Hamlin, Keselowski, Preece, Wallace, Hocevar, Gilliland
GPP: Larson, Byron, Logano, Briscoe, Gibbs, Gragson, Allmendinger, SVG, Custer, Herbst
NASCAR heads up to Martinsville this weekend for the Cook Out 400. Martinsville is the shortest and flattest track on the circuit, which means there will be plenty of dominator points up for grabs. There has been a lot of talk about rain all week, and NASCAR does have damp weather tires which would surely shake things up if they are used. Fortunately, the forecast this morning now looks promising, so I will be ignoring the rain for now. If anything changes, I will be sure to update in Discord.
Track position is key at Martinsville since it is hard to pass, so guys who can get out front early should stay there for a good while. This brings us to the biggest dilemma of the race, which is whether to start your lineup with Christopher Bell or Chase Elliott. Bell was inferior in practice, and he looks to not have a winning car this weekend. However, being able to control the opening restart will be a huge advantage. Elliott on the other hand looks to be the car to beat this week. He will have his work cut out for him to gain the early lead, but he is certainly capable of doing so. I will personally side with Elliott as he has the best shot to lead 100+ laps in this race. Another viable strategy that may be more suited in cash games would be to play both Elliott and Bell, so that you can be sure to gain those early dominator points.
If Elliott does not end up being the car to beat, then there is a good chance that it is Denny Hamlin. Hamlin is blazing fast, and so far he has had the 2nd best pit crew in the series, which could be a huge factor today to gain track position. Denny is our preferred 2nd dominator this afternoon. Next for us would be Bubba Wallace. Bubba was high on most radars this week, but after a strong qualifying effort, some people will jump off him as they do not view him as a dominator. They are dead wrong, as Bubba was the best car in practice, and short flat tracks are always his best tracks, which dates back to his roots of racing short flat tracks in High School. We have dominator potential at a very cheap price tag, and we would prefer to play Bubba than an average mid-priced guy starting mid pack at a track that is hard to pass at.
Other dominators you can keep in your player pool this evening would be Kyle Larson, Chase Briscoe, and Joey Logano, but we would stick to the core above for optimal lineups.
Moving onto the place differential options, which is headlined by Ryan Blaney. Blaney looked great in the long run in practice, but unfortunately drew the bad straw and had to qualify super early in the session, when not as much rubber was on the track and it was much slower. This race is long enough for him to get to the front and contend for the win. We love Blaney this week and would lock him into all of your lineups.
The next tier of PD plays includes Ryan Preece, Brad Keselowski, and Carson Hocevar. Martinsville suits Preece’s driving style, as he has a long history of racing flat tracks in the Modified series. I always like to target Preece at these tracks and am hopeful that him starting a few spots further up will keep his ownership the lowest of this trio. Keselowski also looks promising, as he looks to have a Top 15-ish car. The issue with Brad is he is becoming hard to trust. I am not sure if they are constantly making unneeded adjustments or what, but the car they put on the track on Sunday’s has performed much differently than what they sent out for practice on Saturday. I prefer Preece for $400 cheaper on DK, but Brad has a nice ceiling in his own right as well. Lastly we have Hocevar who will roll off 29th and is super cheap. These types of tracks are not Hocevar’s strong suit, but this team has shown way too much speed this season to be this cheap. I fully expect Hocevar to improve his starting position by 10-12 spots and have a great chance of being in the optimal lineup.
As far as value comes, we can expect Todd Gilliland to be pretty chalky. This is chalk that I do not mind fading, as they have been pretty slow to start the season. He does have a strong history at Martinsville, but they also came in for adjustments more than anyone else in practice, which tells me he was not happy with his car. I would vastly prefer AJ Allmendinger or Shane Van Gisbergen, or take a shot on Herbst starting 35th. When considering this bunch, Allmedinger would have the best chance at a Top 10, which makes him a great GPP play in the value range. Cole Custer also produced an impressive practice session, where he showcased a Top 10 car. He is a similar play to Allmendinger, and I like getting exposure to both in tournaments. Track position is key, so their starting spots being slightly higher could play into their favor and help them surprise the field with a Top 10 run.
Lastly, Noah Gragson is a great GPP play as well, as he is a potential pivot off the chalkier Hocevar or Suarez in that range. Noah was decent in practice, and ranked 13th in total speed here in the Fall of last year. I also talked to Noah earlier this week, and he seemed confident that this could be one of their better weeks. Granted this was before he had even sat in the seat of this week’s car, but I could tell this is a week they have circled on the calendar.
Best of luck everyone!