Optimal: Larson, Hamlin, Blaney, Elliott, Hocevar, Wallace, Stenhouse, Gragson
GPP: Byron, Bell, Briscoe, Bowman, Cindric, Preece, Berry, Jones, Smith, Herbst
The Monster Mile brings 400 laps of DFS gold, and with qualifying rained out and a brand-new tire compound in play, there’s plenty of uncertainty on how things unfold. Dover is high-banked, concrete, and punishing—meaning you need 2-3 dominators in every lineup, and stacking the right ones will decide this slate. We’ve seen tracks like Nashville, Kansas, and Charlotte serve as strong comps in the Next Gen era, but make no mistake—Dover has its own personality, and it usually rewards drivers who can adapt to the groove shifting as the rubber builds up and the track slickens.
It starts with the front row: Chase Elliott vs. Chase Briscoe. Elliott is going to carry more ownership and is the safer play with strong Dover history—removing his two DNFs, his average finish here is 4.7. But I’m siding with Briscoe in GPPs. He’s inheriting the No. 19 car that Truex dominated here with for years, and just last week at Sonoma he drove it to a P2 finish. Add in the fact that Briscoe fits the “wheelman” archetype that tends to thrive when the groove is changing and grip is at a premium, and you’ve got the higher-ceiling play at lower ownership. If either of these guys leads 100+ laps—and it’s very possible one does—they’ll be a slate breaker, but you should absolutely not be pairing them together. One or the other, not both.
William Byron is arguably the cleanest dominator on the slate. He starts closer to the front than the other big guns, is cheaper than Hamlin, and carries real Dover pedigree—leading the most laps here two years ago and running second in Stage 2 last year before getting taken out. He’s also likely to come in at a modest ownership discount with people prioritizing Blaney, Hamlin and Larson for place differential, making Byron one of the more elite GPP plays on the slate.
Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson round out the other half of the elite tier, but they’re both stuck deeper in the field due to the rainout. They have the upside to dominate, of course—but they’ll need a flawless path to the front and likely a good pit cycle or two along the way. Hamlin’s had speed everywhere and has been arguably the fastest car in 2025, but at this salary and ownership, there’s merit to going underweight. Larson is in a similar spot—still one of the best raw drivers in the field, but starting outside the top 15 and on a weekend with an untested tire, his place differential might be more realistic than his dominator chances. Of the two, I prefer Larson just slightly because he bridges both categories—he’s capable of scoring through laps led or by moving through the field, and his ability to pass when the track changes conditions is as good as anyone’s.
Now we move into the value and PD range, and it begins with Ryan Blaney, who might be the most popular play on the slate. Starting 31st with a relatively modest salary among the top-tier drivers, he’s a near-lock for positive differential unless something goes horribly wrong. But it’s worth pointing out that I do not have him projected for meaningful dominator points, and if he stalls out in dirty air or can’t crack the top 10, his ceiling may disappoint at chalk ownership. That’s why builds that include Blaney but fade both Chases are intriguing tournament pivots. In that same vein, Noah Gragson is your optimal salary saver. He starts 36th and has a top-10 finish here last year, plus solid runs at comparable tracks. He’s not just a punt—he’s viable as a core value.
Alex Bowman is one of the more under-discussed plays this week. He’s priced in the mid-range and starts 16th, which feels like a dead zone for ownership, but his Dover history is absolutely elite. Over the last seven races here, he’s posted five top-five finishes, a win, and a runner-up. He’s also coming in with sneaky form and should benefit from the early track position relative to the deeper-starting studs. He’s exactly the kind of “middle” play that fits beautifully in three-dominator builds where you need one driver under $9K to pop.
Josh Berry is a track-specific play who might go underappreciated by the field. He’s had nothing but success here in Xfinity—finishing second, first, and second—and has quietly posted finishes of 10th and 14th in Cup the last two years despite sub-par equipment with SHR. He’s now in the Wood Brothers 21, which benefits from the Penske alliance, and that step up in gear combined with his Dover comfort level puts him firmly in play for a top-10 finish. It is no suprise that Berry is good here since it is a concrete track; the track type he grew up racing Late Models on. He starts just outside the top 10, so he’ll need to move forward and avoid getting stuck in the dirty air mid-pack, but the ceiling is there, especially if the optimal line keeps shifting and driver skill plays a bigger role.
Ryan Preece is another sneaky value option that fits well in balanced builds or as a low-owned pivot in tournaments. He starts 14th, which means there’s not much place differential built in, but he’s been consistently solid on comparable tracks this year. At four of the five most relevant ovals this season, he’s finished inside the top 10, and last year at the fifth, he brought it home fourth. Like Berry, his success is no surprise, as these are all comparable tracks that he dominated racing Modifieds on early in his career. He doesn’t carry the upside of a dominator, but if this race plays out with early chaos or missteps from popular PD plays, a clean run from Preece could be exactly what you need. He and Berry are negatively correlated to a degree since they’re both gunning for that 8th–12th place range, but picking the right one could be the difference between cashing and cracking the optimal.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is your final value consideration and possibly the most volatile. He starts 34th and is priced in the low $6K range, which makes him extremely viable on paper. He finished second here just three years ago, and even last year he was running inside the top 10 in both stages before wrecking out late. The upside is clearly there if he keeps it clean, but you’re betting on survival as much as skill. That said, Dover is one of his better tracks, and his ceiling projection compared to similarly priced punts makes him worth the risk in GPPs—especially if you’re going stars-and-scrubs and need to squeeze in a third dominator.
Lastly, with no practice or qualifying, it is viable in tournaments to fade the drivers that everyone is “assuming” is going to have speed this weekend. Carson Hocevar for example is projecting for nearly 40% ownership, but we have no reason to believe he is going to be fast here. This is just an assumption by the field based on his overall speed this year, but remember, Dover is a unique track so there is no guarantee that the same guys that have been fast all year will be fast here.