Optimal: Larson, Byron, Chastain, Busch, Bowman, Berry, Keselowski, Allmendinger, DIllon
GPP: Blaney, Reddick, Bubba, Buescher, However, Stenhouse, Love
Kyle Larson’s the clear top dominator today—he’s got the speed, the long-run pace, and he’s starting up front. He’s been dialed in all weekend and this track suits his style perfectly. He has 100+ point upside and we recommend locking him into your lineups.
If you’re looking to pair another dominator with Larson, William Byron and Tyler Reddick are your best bets. These two and Larson appear to be in a tier of their own. Byron’s been consistently fast at these track types and can take over a race in clean air. Reddick’s got the high-line speed and raw upside to lead big chunks if things break his way. Both bring legit dominator potential, but it’s worth noting that this has the potential to be a race where Larson just dominates from start to finish. In that scenario, we would want to bypass a second dominator and focus on the plethora of elite mid-range options we have today.
Moving on to place differential plays, where Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, and Josh Berry are top-tier options. Keselowski starts 36th, Busch 35th, and Berry 38th, all due to issues during qualifying . Keselowski is at his lowest salary point of the season and finally showed up with speed, posting a top-5 single-lap time in practice . Busch also had strong pace off the truck, ranking 3rd in 20-lap averages before hitting the wall in qualifying . Berry’s starting deep, but he’s shown he can move forward, especially with his recent win at Las Vegas . All three offer solid upside from the back, with Keselowski and Busch having real top 10 potential.
A couple other mid-range options are Alex Bowman and Bubba Wallace. Both of these drivers continue to bring speed to the track every week and run inside the top 10. Both of them are victims of crashes last week that were not their fault, which resulted in them qualifying early in the session when track conditions were slower. We expect both of them to compete for a top-10 or higher this weekend, with a slight lean to Bowman.
Lastly, the value plays for today. AJ Allmendinger and Ty Dillon stand out. Allmendinger starts 33rd and, while his practice speeds weren’t stellar, he has the experience to navigate through the field and has been solid on intermediates all season. Dillon, starting 29th, showed decent pace in practice, ranking 9th in 10-lap averages, suggesting he has the potential to move up during the race. Both drivers are budget-friendly options with the upside to gain positions and deliver solid returns.
Best of luck today!