Optimal: SVG, Bell, Byron, Reddick, Briscoe, Hocevar, Gragson
GPP: Chastain, Suarez, Cindric, Bowman, Gibbs, Blaney, Preece, Gilliland
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to uncharted territory this weekend with the inaugural Viva México 250 at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez. While the race is only 100 laps, dominator points will be minimal, but you’ll almost certainly need the winner. With that in mind, Shane van Gisbergen (SVG) stands out as the top option. He’s the best road course driver in the field and has already proven his ability to win in the Cup Series. Ty Gibbs and Ross Chastain are strong pivots with winning upside as well, but I wouldn’t use more than one of these three in a single lineup. If one wins, you’ll likely need them, but multiple won’t hit their ceilings together with so few laps to lead.
Place differential is where the slate will likely be decided. Christopher Bell is about as close to a lock as you can get. He’s a COTA winner, has top 10 speed in practice, and is starting deep enough to offer huge upside. William Byron is starting 27th and remains one of the most consistent road racers in the series. He rarely wrecks and often moves forward, making him a high-floor play with sneaky top 10 potential. Carson Hocevar continues to impress, finishing 13th or better in three straight road races. His aggressive style fits this layout well. Ryan Blaney looks like a road course discount that doesn’t make much sense. His recent results have been unlucky, but his actual pace in the laps he ran in practice was encouraging, and he has plenty of past success on this type of track. Chase Briscoe rounds out the group. Way too good at road courses for his price, and he brings legitimate top 10 potential that’s not being priced in.
There are some clear fades this week, starting with Brad Keselowski. He’s projecting for nearly 30 percent ownership because of his name and salary, but he’s one of the worst road course drivers in the field. Since the start of last season, his average finish on road courses is 21.33, and that number lines up with the eye test. Even a top 20 finish would be a surprise here. Then there’s the group of Bubba Wallace, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., and John Hunter Nemechek. These guys are often in play on ovals when starting deep, but this is a road course, a completely different animal, and none of them have shown the skill or results to warrant playing. Ownership will likely be low, but the floor is bottom five and the ceiling isn’t much better.
One last thing to consider: stage point racing. A few drivers may choose to stay out for stage points, which almost always hurts their overall finish with how strategy plays out on road courses. There’s no real way to predict who will go for it, but it’s something to keep in mind when breaking ties or building lineups. Drivers like Kyle Busch, Ryan Preece, Alex Bowman, Chris Buescher, Chase Briscoe, and Bubba Wallace could all fall into this category. It doesn’t mean you can’t play them, but you should be careful about stacking too many guys who might punt finishing position for stage results.
Builds with SVG and Bell will require at least one value play that is cheaper than everyone we have listed. The option with the highest floor is Noah Gragson. He is not a great road course driver, but he starts super deep and is in solid equipment. He is the safe option, but being a good road course driver takes focus, mental toughness, and patience — and knowing Gragson personally, he lacks that. It always seems inevitable that he will wreck on these tracks due to a lazy mistake. The GPP options here are Ryan Preece and Todd Gilliland. Both of these guys were top 6 in practice, with Gilliland being arguably the fastest in the second practice run. If either of these guys are able to keep it in the top 10, they would pay off their salary and surely score more than Gragson. Their starting position gives them a very low floor, but I think they can keep it towards the front.