Dominators: Hamlin, Reddick, Buescher, Larson, Byron
Place Differential: Bell, Chastain, Elliott (GPP), Bowman (GPP), Keselowski, Suarez, Gragson, Stenhouse, Nemechek
This week’s dominator pool is pretty clear to me, with Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, and Chris Buescher standing out as the top three.
Denny Hamlin gets the slight edge as my number one dominator. He looked great in practice, and while Reddick may have had a slight edge in raw speed, Hamlin’s starting position gives him the early track position to dominate stages. Michigan is a momentum track, and Hamlin should be able to get out front early and stay there.
Tyler Reddick is a close second. He was arguably the best in practice overall, showing speed on both short and long runs. He’ll need to work a little harder from his starting spot, but his car is absolutely capable of getting to the front and leading a chunk of this race. He also offers a bit of leverage if the field goes heavier on Byron and Larson.
Chris Buescher ranked first in my practice model for both short-run and long-run speed. While he isn’t typically viewed as a dominator, we’ve seen him do it before at intermediate tracks. He’s starting up front, which could scare people off, but I’m really interested in him in GPPs. I trust Hamlin and Reddick more in terms of raw dominance, but Buescher has a massive ceiling at a lower salary and should come in under-owned.
Kyle Larson and William Byron are always capable of dominating, and I wouldn’t be shocked if either of them takes over the race at some point. That said, they’re likely to be two of the highest-rostered drivers on the slate based on name value alone, and I’d rather load up on the guys who looked better in practice and carry slightly lower ownership.
Moving onto place differential plays, where Christopher Bell is probably the most optimal play on the slate. He’s starting way too deep for how good his car is, and he’s live to not only pass a bunch of cars but also contend for the win. His track history at Michigan is solid, and the practice speed backs it up. He’s going to be chalk, but he’s chalk for a reason. I still slightly prefer starting my builds with Hamlin or Reddick, but Bell is probably the second guy in your core if you’re playing optimally.
Brad Keselowski is another strong PD play. It’s his home track, and he’s been excellent here lately with back-to-back top 5s. He had a top 10 car in practice and offers big upside from where he’s rolling off. Should be a popular play, but deservedly so.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is my favorite value in tournaments. He’s starting 30th, had a top 15 car in practice, and has historically performed well at larger intermediate tracks. Ownership projections aren’t showing much love, which makes him super interesting as a GPP play. He offers similar PD upside to some of the chalkier guys, but at a fraction of the ownership.
Noah Gragson and Daniel Suarez are both starting deep and offer similar profiles to Stenhouse. They have strong ceilings for their price and can absolutely pay off if this race gets chaotic or they hit the setup right. I like both of them, but I still prefer Stenhouse straight up and think he’s the sharper leverage play.