Dominators: Larson, Truex, Hamlin, Byron, Logano, Blaney, Elliot (GPP), Wallace (GPP) Chastain (Deep GPP/MME Sprinkle)
Place Differential: Bell, Briscoe, Keselowski, Mcdowell, Berry, Gragson (GPP), Hocevar (GPP Value)
Happy Easter everyone! NASCAR travels to Richmond tonight for a race under the lights. This is a 400 lap race which means there are plenty of dominator points up for grabs. The one thing to keep an eye on throughout the day is the weather. There is a chance they begin this race on wet weather tires, with rain forecasted throughout the day. This could ultimately shake up the entire field as we likely see many teams on different strategies. I will update in Discord with my thoughts if this is the case, as we will likely attempt to get more contrarian. This writeup will be under the impression that we start the race dry, so let’s take the green flag.
As mentioned above, there are 400 laps tonight, so we need to pinpoint those dominators. Our top option is arguably the best driver in the world, Kyle Larson. Larson will start from the pole tonight and had a very strong car in practice. Larson makes for the most likely option to lead the early portion of this race. After Larson, we are eyeing Martin Truex to find his way to the front. Truex is very good at Richmond and is notorious for succeeding when the sun goes down and track conditions begin to change. The Joe Gibbs Toyotas have been strong on short tracks this season, and Truex had a better practice session than his teammate Denny Hamlin, who we like, but we prefer Truex to Hamlin straight up. These three will likely be the highest owned potential dominators.
As far as low owned dominators go, there are a couple guys strongly on our radar. William Byron seems to be getting overlooked as he practiced in group B which had worse track conditions. Starting in 13th, Byron provides us with PD upside and can be a dominator. Byron ranks 4th in total speed rankings at Richmond in the next-gen era, including having the best car in this exact race last year. Byron’s team is firing on all cylinders right now and is a great option in GPPs. Jumping over the Ford camp, Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney both could be GPP winning plays. Blaney has been hit or miss at Richmond over the past two years, while Logano has been hit or miss in general lately. The uncertainty around these two are keeping their ownership a little lower than it should be. Joey Logano is arguably our favorite GPP play, as we believe he is the best pt/$ play on the slate, outside of maybe Chase Briscoe, who we will touch on next. Logano is always a threat on short flat tracks, and he should be a contender tonight. Chris Buescher is also a Ford that can make some hay throughout this race. His practice times were right behind Larsons and he ranks 3rd in average speed in the next-gen era. Bubba Wallace will roll off 5th and arguably had the best group B practice times. He is cheap, so dominator potential at that price definitely makes him viable in GPPs. Chase Elliott and Ross Chastain are large field GPP options at best. Elliott will start on the front row, and is very good on short flat tracks. His practice effort was underwhelming, but with that comes very low ownership. Taking the lead from Larson will be super difficult, but it could be a huge leverage play if it works out. Chastain is worth a small amount of shares in MME formats. His practice effort ranked dead last but he likely was fighting some issue, as he then turned in a 3rd place qualifying effort. His team is going to need to find some extra firepower to dominate this race, but never count out an aggressive driver like Chastain.
As we dive into the place differential plays, we have to address Christopher Bell. Bell starts way back in 29th, and is a very safe play. However, sitting him in with the likes of Larson, Truex, Hamlin, or Byron is difficult. You need to prioritize dominators on this slate so Bell is viable in lineups where you fade the top trio of dominators and play someone like Logano or Elliott as your main dominators. Bell is a great play, so fit him in if you can, but prioritize your dominators first. Our favorite PD play is Chase Briscoe. Briscoe has been good on short flat tracks in his career, and this season is looking to be one of his best seasons in his young career. So far this week, he has not shown a lot of speed, but we believe he will succeed throughout the race. Brad Keselowski is also a great option, as Richmond has been one of his best tracks since taking over as a Driver/Owner at RFK Racing. He ranks 7th in average speed during that span, and showed great speed in practice. Get Brad in your lineups if salary allows you to after your dominators. Michael Mcdowell is a very interesting play, as his track history here in the next-gen era is not very good. However he displayed blazing speed in practice, topping the charts in group B. He is an excellent play at his starting position. Lastly, we are interested in Josh Berry. Berry, like his teammate Briscoe, does not appear to have speed straight off the truck. However, Berry came up through the ranks by succeeding on short flat tracks, and a track like Richmond fits his driving style. He will be the lowest owned of this group, and we like him in GPPs. Noah Gragson is another GPP option from Stewart Hass Racing. He had really good long run speed in group B practice, the group that is going overlooked because of the slower track conditions. The last guy to hit on is Carson Hocevar. Hocevar could be that cheap piece we need to make some lineups work. He finished 15th at Phoenix which is similar to Richmond, and he has won at Richmond in the past in lower series. Hocevar has the talent to move forward and we expect him to throughout the race.