Dominators: Larson, Hamlin, Gibbs, Truex, Byron (GPP), Blaney, Chastain (GPP)
Place Differential: Buescher, Keselowski, Jones, Gilliland, Gragson, Stenhouse Jr.
It’s a slam packed day of racing, with the Indy 500 kicking things off, and the Coke 600 at Charlotte rounding things out in the evening. We actually have one of NASCAR’s own, Kyle Larson, attempting to “do the double” today and run both races. The weather in Indy is not looking good, so Larson may end up having to make a decision on which race he runs. We rarely have news to watch for in NASCAR, but you are going to want to keep up to date with Larson’s status, as he is a top play on the slate if he makes it to Charlotte in time.
This race is a 600 mile race, which means dominator points will be plentiful and are needed to cash. It feels like we could just start copying and pasting at this point, but Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin have been in a world of their own this season in terms of speed. They both once again had great speed in practice, and are your top dominator candidates. As mentioned we need to keep an eye on Larson’s status, and there is slight concern if he is to make it to Charlotte, does he have the mental fortitude to race 600 miles after such a long day. Hamlin actually piques our interest in GPPs quite a bit, and is not projected to be super chalky.
Ty Gibbs has undoubtedly unloaded a rocket-ship off the truck this week, topping the practice charts and qualifying on the pole. We have a 100 lap first stage and Gibbs has the best chance to lead those laps. Gibbs is also cheap enough that he can still be a great play, even if he does not dominate, but hangs in the top 5. We however, do think he will lead laps today and is a core play for us.
Our next tier of dominators is headlined by Martin Truex. Truex has great history here at the Coke 600, as he is one of the best at managing his equipment, and making the necessary adjustments as the race transitions from day to night. Truex has been strong at all the other similar tracks, and given his history here, he is rightfully the second favorite (behind Larson) to win this race. He is cheaper than Larson & Hamlin, and is getting talked about around the industry, so we do expect him to be pretty highly owned. Truex checks all the boxes and is a top candidate to lead laps and potentially win the race.
In GPPs, we want to highlight William Byron. Byron hardly ran any practice laps, which is keeping him off some lap average charts completely. Typically, when a driver does not run many practice laps, it is because he is super happy with his car. Byron proceeded to qualify second, showing he has a strong car. Byron may be forgotten about today, and is a very strong play in GPPs.
Ryan Blaney did not show blazing speed in practice, but he looked solid. Blaney had a breakout race here last year, as he was struggling until he came out and dominated this race for his first win of the season. Blaney has great track history here and starts 16th, giving him PD upside, while also being a dominator candidate late in the race. He also is a great GPP play with a huge ceiling.
Lastly, in GPPs we have interest in Ross Chastain. Chastain topped his group in practice speed, and was in the group that had slightly slower track conditions. It is a mystery where he would rank if he was in the other group, but we believe he has a top 5-7 car. Ross is very strong at 1.5 mile tracks and is not one to be phased by long races. At a cheap price tag compared to our other dominators, and projected low ownership, we like taking a flier on Chastain to dominate in large field tournaments.
When it comes to todays strategy we recommend focusing on nailing dominators vs paying up for PD. Since we like paying up for guys like Larson and Hamlin we get a little bit of built in PD from those doms. The first big 3 and decisions we have to make are Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, and Chris Buescher. Buescher will be the chalk of all chalk at his price and starting basically dead last. In cash he is a lock button and on GPPs we still love him here. He has been a top 5-8 car the last few weeks if not better and we see no real reason to fade him. Speaking of fade that is what we lean towards when it comes to Joey. Do I think he will move up and be a 13-15th place car, yes but see no domination potential here. We are hoping people will look at how dominate he was last week and reach for the PD. Brad is an ok play, but we prefer using the salary on Doms and looking cheaper. He would be in the mix in making multiple lineups.
Looking into cheaper PD plays we like Eric Jones and Todd Gilliland, however so will the field. Just pay attention to ownership and try to get a little diff if use one of these guys with a Buescher for example. One tournament pivot we like is Noah Gragson. Gragson had quickly became the banner driver for Stewart Haas Racing and has had some great results. He starts far enough back and had good practice times so we find him intriguing. One other driver we look to in GPPs in Ricky Stenhouse Jr., and not just because of that awesome haymaker he hit Kyle Busch with last week. He looked fast in practice and this is the track type he pulls off his surprise good runs (along with plate races). We don’t think he will be trying to wreck Kyle and that may give us an ownership discount.
If having to fully dumpster dive (which you should be if making multiple lines) we recommend using a combo of John Hunter Nemecheck, Corey Lajoie, Justin Haley, Harrison Burton, and Shane Van Gisbergen. If you have to go lower our pick would be Ty Dillon or Kaz Grala. We understand this is a bunch of names but they all grade out similar. JHN, Lajoie and Haley come with more risk starting a little higher but have showed greater upside so far this season. Burton and SVG start far enough back that if they survive th race they could work on pure attrition but that’s probably the only way. The other two are just the best of the 💩 box cars today. Good luck!!