Dominators: Blaney, Hamlin, Logano
GPP: McDowell, Bell, Reddick, Gibbs, Chastain, Keselowski, Cindric
Place Differential: Truex Jr., Suarez, Buescher, Berry
Value: Gilliland, Smith, Stenhouse, Hoecvar,
Fade: Busch, Hendricks cars đź‘€
Today we are racing at the WWTR formerly known as Gateway. This is only the 3rd race here for the Cup guys and this track doesn’t really fit the mold of any others. It is a 1.25 mile flat track, so it doesn’t fall into the cookie cutter 1.5’s but isn’t necessarily a short track either. To make it even more challenging to predict, NASCAR uses the intermediate package here. Thankfully we did get practice this week so at least we will have that to go by. With that being said, let’s dive in:
It looks like we may finally have a Penske sighting this week as we are finally not at a 1.5 track. Joey Logano was 1st in the 5 and 10 lap and 3rd in the 15. Ryan Blaney was 2nd in the 5, 3rd in the 10 and 1st in the 15. Even Austin Cindric was 3rd, 2nd and 4th in those categories respectively. Micheal McDowell (Penske alliance) is on the pole, Cindric is starting 2nd and Blaney 3rd. Also add in the fact Logano won one of the two previous races here and top 5 the other. So yes…we are very much in on Penske this week. 1a and 1b would be Blaney and Logano. McDowell would be our next choice and then Cindric last. With Logano starting in 12th we like the idea of starting your lineups with him and one of Blaney or McDowell. While you could play Blaney and McDowell it will be very risky and only in GPPs. McDowell will work if he can lead some early laps and stay in the top 8-10.
The other cars that looked really good this week were the Joe Gibbs Toyotas. Christopher Bell, Ty Gibbs, Bubba Wallace (23×11), Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr were the 4th – 8th in practice respectively. Tyler Reddick was 10th but his car looked great on the long run. Hamlin is the most expensive and starts in that no man’s land position of 6th where he probably won’t be the early dom but also not much PD upside. At the same time Denny has been the best driver in the series and came in 2nd here last year and seemed to have figured it out. If you play Hamlin he needs to be one of your doms. Bell and Gibbs both look pretty similar today with Bell having a little more Dom upside but Gibbs has a few more PD positions available and the stronger pit crew which is important here. Truex may be a guy to key in on as he didn’t make a long run and starts back in 19th. We love using him, Joey and an early Dom in lineups.
Ross Chastain is really the only Chevy we like today. He was top 10 across the board in practice and seems to like his car. Chris Buescher starts back in 26th, if he keeps up the heater he is on this could be a smash play but he didn’t seem to have the right set up this week so it’s a little more risky. Finally, Stewart Haas is a dumpster fire right now after announcing they are shutting down operations after this year. Josh Berry and Noah Gragson have nice PD upside but we advise staying away unless making multiple lineups. Berry would be our favorite.
For value it’s not a great week to “dumpster dive” so to speak. If you use McDowell or Cindric they are priced back here which helps. Daniel Suarez rates out as our best Pt/$ value driver if you have the money to get to him. Other than that, we lean more towards the guys like Carson Hoecvar and Ricky Stenhouse. They are more risky than typical though, as backmarkers haven’t fared as well here, and with it being hard to pass, cars seem to run about where their speed shows unless involved in an accident. The two “safer” cheap guys we like this week are Todd Gilliland and Zane Smith. Gilliland is teammates with McDowell and so is also in the semi-alliance with Penske. It’s possible they get some good notes and can make some big swings to his car for todays race. Smith actually showed some decent speed in practice and has good history here in the trucks. He has struggled quite a bit this year but we like taking a chance on him today.
Finally when it comes to fades we are taking a pretty big stand today. Kyle Busch has finished 1st and 2nd here in the two races. He led the most laps and dominated from the pole last year. He was somebody we watched closely in practice and didn’t seem to be in love with his car, which is a big key for him. RCR has been awful to put it nicely this year and we don’t see how they turn it around. The history and popularity of Rowdy could give us a nice leverage spot. Plus even if he rides towards the front you can almost guarantee he will speed in the pits today at least once. The Hendrick cars unloaded awful this week and it looks like they just completely missed. It is always scary to fade guys like Kyle Larson and William Byron, but their prices are just too high if they don’t have Dom potential. Larson would be the one we would recommend if you really want to play a Hendrick car but at his price he could easily ruin your day.Â