High Priced: Truex, Reddick, Hamlin, Gibbs, Larson (GPP), Byron (GPP), Bell (GPP), Elliott (GPP)
Mid Priced: Allmendinger, Buescher, Chastain, McDowell, Cindric, Busch, Logano (GPP), Keselowski
Punts: Briscoe, Gragson, Smith, Haley, Stenhouse, Nemechek, Jones
NASCAR is heading to wine country today as they take on the road course at Sonoma in the Toyota/Save Mart 350. If you’re not familiar with road course racing, it takes an entirely different skill set than what we regularly see each weekend. Think of it more similarly to IndyCar or F1. They will go left, right, up and down elevation changes, and all sorts of twists and turns for 2 miles. With that being said…let’s dive in.
Due to the length of the track there are nowhere near as many dominator points as usual. Instead we focus more on PD upside and just who can finish in the top 10 at the end. You can have one driver ruin your day in a heartbeat, since if they spin out there usually won’t be a caution and they will tumble down through the field. This year NASCAR has added back stage breaks to RC’s, so some guys will pit prior to the break and flip the stages to gain track position, while some will stay out to garner stage points, but will ultimately lose track position. It is hard to predict which driver will use which strategy, but the optimal strategy for DFS will be prioritizing track position. Sonoma was also repaved since the last time here. With there being some unpredictability we like to really look at RC history and PD upside for the race today.
The way qualifying and the pricing lined up this week we HIGHLY prefer going more balanced this week in your lines as there are lots of great options in the mid-range. It’s also hard to want to pay up for somebody when dominator points aren’t as existent. For this reason the breakdown is a little different this week. Martin Truex Jr is the highest priced driver today, and he has great history here winning 3 of the last 5 and provides a ton of PD upside starting 21st. However last time he started 20th or worse here he finished out the top 15 and he didn’t look to have a car to beat in practice. This is where we prefer taking Kyle Busch, Chris Buescher, or Denny Hamlin and save the salary for the rest of the lineup. Not saying Truex is a bad play per say and he can be used, we just see numerous ways he won’t be in the optimal line today.
We really want to hammer the mid range cars and avoid as many cheap plays as possible. Once we get past Keselowski, it gets really shaky as far as plays go. They are going to all grade out ok in projections as they have the PD upside, however they all tend to struggle on RC’s and will probably ride around in the back and be the ones continually spinning out and losing spots. One guy that is priced too cheap is Ross Chastain. Ross has a great chance to finish up front, thanks to his #1 ranked 10-lap average in practice. Ross has a good history on RCs and is one of our top plays today. Another similar play to Ross is AJ Allmendinger. Dinger is one of the best RC racers in the series and since he is not a full-time points driver, we are confident that he will use the previously mentioned optimal strategy of flipping the stages for track position. He starts just behind Ross, and while we prefer Ross from a speed standpoint, we are not 100% sure on what his strategy will be, which makes Dinger slightly safer. Another guy from this starting range we like is Ty Gibbs, who will roll off 10th. Gibbs is a superb play and should run up near the front, but he is the most expensive of this trio. The last guy to mention from this starting range is Michael McDowell. McDowell is a great RC driver, and he even won at the Indy RC last year. McDowell also is way behind in points, so his ticket into the playoffs can likely only be obtained by getting a win. Like Allmendinger, we expect him to be on the optimal strategy here today. We like prioritizing at least one of these drivers in your lineups today, if not two.
Starting deeper in the field, we have Austin Cindric and Brad Keselowski. Cindric is a good RC driver and his Penske teammates look to have great speed this week. We expect Cindric to make the right adjustments and move up from his starting position. Keselowski has struggled recently on RCs, but this team is firing on all cylinders right now and he was a good RC driver when he raced for Penske. We do not expect a huge fantasy point performance from Kes, but he is very safe and should move forward.
Will Brown is worth noting, due to his third fastest practice speed. However, he tweeted that they are now only running at 75% power and they are trying to diagnose the problem. For now, he is too risky to play, but if we get word that the car is fixed, he is an elite GPP play starting 24th. His Supercar background will help him tremendously, just like we have seen it help SVG. If anything changes with this situation, we will update in Discord.
In GPPs, you can mix in some of the race favorites who start up front. Just know they come with more risk than all the other plays, and you likely need them to win the race to be optimal. Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, and William Byron are the drivers that fit this criteria.