Dominators (1-2): Hamlin, Larson, Reddick (GPP), Blaney (GPP), Byron (GPP), Elliott (GPP), Chastain
Place Differential: Truex, Keselowski, Buescher, Bowman, Gibbs, Gragson, Jones, Stenhouse, Allmendinger, Hemric
After a chaotic ending to the race at Richmond last week, NASCAR takes its drivers to Michigan this week for the FireKeepers Casino 400. Michigan is a large 2-mile track with minimal tire wear. We were able to get roughly half of a practice session in on Saturday before being interrupted by rain. We will dig into speed charts, performance at other high-speed intermediate tracks this season, and track history. Qualifying was also rained out, so the starting lineup was set by NASCARs performance metric. Let’s get started!
Our top two optimal dominators are once again Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson. Hamlin was not the strongest in practice, but he and Larson are tied for 1st in total speed ranking at high-speed tracks this year. Hamlin is also a two-time winner at Michigan and has an average finish of 3.5 here in the next-gen era, never finishing worse than sixth. Due to the metric, Hamlin will get the benefit of starting on the pole, and is the top candidate to lead the early laps.
Kyle Larson on the other hand was very sharp in practice (2nd in 5-lap and 10-lap averages), is tied for first in total speed ranking at high-speed tracks, and also has great track history at Michigan. Larson also has averaged 107 laps led per race at high-speed tracks this season. Larson is our favorite car this week, and would be our pick to win the race. Hamlin does have an easier path to leading early laps starting from the pole, but Larson is our top choice to lead the bulk of the race.
Starting between Hamlin and Larson, and also with the benefit of starting on the front row will be Tyler Reddick. Reddick ranks 4th in total-speed at high-speed tracks this season, and had the 4th best 10-lap average in practice. The recent track history for Reddick could scare some people off him, but he was running in 2nd and 9th in the last two Michigan races before he had uncontrollable issues. Reddick is a viable GPP pivot off of Hamlin, in hopes Reddick snags the early lead.
Another GPP dominator that is worth getting some exposure to is Ryan Blaney. Michigan is a track that Ford always performs very well on. Usually when the Fords all hit on their set-ups, we see Blaney contend for a win and be the top-dog out of the Ford camp. Blaney won at Pocono, and arguably should’ve won at Indy, two very large tracks that require pure speed. These races were also relatively recent, which makes us trust these results even more. Blaney is finally priced up with the other studs, as he should be. For this reason, we expect him to come in very low-owned, and is worth some GPP exposure.
The Hendrick Motorsports duo of William Byron and Chase Elliott will also roll off from inside the top 10 and have top 5 upside with an outside chance to dominate. Byron said he really liked his car and ranked 3rd in the 5-lap average in practice. He has had some rough luck lately at Michigan but has had a top 10 car in each of the last two races here before getting caught up in trouble. Elliott on the other hand ranked just behind Byron in practice’s 5-lap average (4th), and has a win this season at Texas, a decent track comparison for Michigan. Elliott also has the best average finish at high-speed tracks this season. Elliott has struggled at Michigan in the next-gen era, but the whole #9 team is having a resurgent year and Elliott looks to have a strong hot-rod this week.
Our last dominator that we love for multiple reasons is Ross Chastain. Ross came in during practice, made some adjustments, and immediately topped the single-lap speed charts just before the rain came. Now it’s certainly possible someone else would have topped him if practice went the full length, but Ross is atop that chart for now. Ross also had the 5th best 5-lap average and said his car feels “fast”. The chance that Ross actually leads laps are slimmer than all of the guys noted above, but at his ridiculous cheap price on both sites, a top 5 finish would be phenomenal, and any laps led would be an added bonus. We love Ross in all formats as he fights for a playoff spot.
Moving onto our place differential plays, where Martin Truex is the optimal choice. Truex topped the 5-lap and 10-lap charts in practice, and could potentially have the best car Sunday afternoon. While we still want to make sure we shoot for some dominator points, this week it is significantly less important than last week, where we had 400 laps compared to just 200 this week. Truex even has the potential to get to the front and lead laps in the second half of the race. The only reason to fade him would be to avoid the high ownership and hope he finds trouble. Truex has the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate and should be a priority in your lineups.
We also love the RFK racing duo of Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher. Brad has finished 2nd in two of the high-speed tracks this season, and finished 4th here last season. Who won that race you may ask? Oh, that’s right, Brad’s teammate Chris Buescher. Buescher has had his ups and downs at high-speed tracks this season, but flashed his upside with a strong showing at Kansas where he finished 2nd and led 54 laps. We slightly prefer Brad, mainly due to Buescher and his team’s inconsistencies at similar tracks. Both are strong options in all formats.
Alex Bowman stands out as a strong play in the mid-range. He has had a top 10 car in his last two showings at Michigan, and finished top 10 at Kansas and Charlotte, two comparable tracks. He showed top-10 speed in practice and we think he can be a top 10 contender. Starting back in 22nd, he is viable in all formats.
Another guy rolling off deeper than he would like is Ty Gibbs, who will start 19th. Gibbs ranks 3rd in total speed at high-speed tracks, which is phenomenal. The issue with Gibbs is that he has finished outside the top 15 in 7 of the last 8 races, and did not look fast in practice. The recent performance has us pumping the brakes on Gibbs just a tad. This is the first high-speed track we will visit after the mid-season break, so it’s possible Gibbs and his team will find their groove again. Gibbs is a viable play, but we prefer Bowman at a cheaper price and lower ownership.
Lastly, our top value-plays include, AJ Allmendinger, Erik Jones, Daniel Hemric, Ricky Stenhouse, and Noah Gragson. Allmedinger starts way back in 35th, and we expect him to have a 20-25th place car and is super cheap. Jones returns to his home track where he has been successful, as he has a 9th place average finish at Michigan in the next-gen era. They have seemed to unload this week with decent speed and he has plenty of positions to gain as he starts back in 28th. Hemric is more of a wild-card, but we cannot ignore his multiple top 20 finishes at high-speed tracks this season. Hemric looks to have competitive speed as well this week based on practice times. The issue that’s preventing us from touting Hemric as an elite value play is his 32nd total speed rank at high-speed tracks this season. He still makes for a solid salary-saver nonetheless. Stenhouse and Gragson are both guys that have the potential to move up 7-10 spots and make for solid salary savers as well.