Optimal: SVG, Buescher, Busch, Cindric, Suarez, Logano, Wallace, Gilliland
GPP: Larson, McDowell, Allmendinger, Hocevar, Gragson, A. Dillon, Jones
We’re heading to wine country for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma, and it’s shaping up to be another high-variance slate with a mix of road course ringers, elite talent, and a repaved track that’s made things faster and less punishing on tires. That alone should tweak your DFS approach—less tire falloff means fewer comers and goers during long runs, which tightens strategy windows and might reward track position more than usual. Oh, and let’s not ignore the elephant on the pole: Shane van Gisbergen. He’s done nothing but dominate every time he touches a road course, and he flat-out dominated qualifying. He’s fast, starting P1, and the field knows it. That said, he’s also priced way up and will be the highest-owned play on the slate. In tournaments, fading SVG isn’t crazy if you’re looking for leverage, but understand the risk—if he wins wire-to-wire or controls a chunk of laps, you’re instantly behind.
I’d rather lean into Kyle Larson this week if you want a dominator who’s still got a bit more ownership relief. He’s been elite at Sonoma for years, and has the ideal mix of raw speed and track history to trust. The repave may reduce some of the tire edge he’s exploited in the past, but he’s still the safest high-priced play if you want a piece of the win equity without leaning on chalk. Right there with him is AJ Allmendinger, who showed the best raw speed in practice and is in a points scenario that likely puts him on the optimal pit strategy. Sonoma has always rewarded smart strategy over raw aggression, and AJ’s in a perfect setup to capitalize. Michael McDowell is in that same camp—another playoff bubble driver who should be on an aggressive strategy and also offers a bit more place differential upside than Allmendinger. He’s a road course specialist and fits a ton of builds from a pricing standpoint.
Kyle Busch is another guy I have circled this week, especially if you’re building for strategy variance. He’s projected to be on the optimal cycle and typically plays the long game well at road courses. His results have been shaky, but this track suits his rhythm-based driving style more than some of the more chaotic layouts we’ve seen lately. If things stay relatively clean and green, he could quietly grind out a top-eight finish and hit value with minimal ownership.
For value, Austin Cindric and Daniel Suárez both stand out. Cindric comes in with momentum, solid road pedigree, and showed respectable one-lap and long-run speed in practice. He won’t carry a ton of ownership but has real potential to finish top ten. Suárez is simply too cheap for his upside. He’s had success at Sonoma before, is a strong road racer when the setup is right, and looks sharp on speed charts. He’s also popping as a slight favorite in some matchup markets, which tells me the books are giving him more respect than his salary implies. In the back, most of the drivers are pretty weak on road courses, so you have to tread lightly. But if you’re looking for a dart throw with actual upside, Noah Gragson is probably your best bet. He’s not elite at road racing by any stretch, but he’s shown more competence than others in that range and should at least have a shot to move forward and clean up a few spots with attrition.
This slate is going to hinge on how aggressive you want to be with SVG and how much risk you’re willing to stomach on value plays. With limited laps and a repaved surface keeping things tighter, I think the move is to build for finishing position and correlation over raw dominator hunting. Play smart, differentiate where it counts, and don’t be afraid to lean into strategy-based pivots like Allmendinger, McDowell, and Busch. You’ll need to get weird somewhere to take something down this week.