Optimal Plays: James, Davis (DK), Brunson, Edwards (FD), Murray, Hart, Porter, Hartenstein (DK), Anunoby, Isaac
GPP Plays: Jokic, Edwards (DK), Banchero, Gobert, Gordon, Conley, Suggs, Caldwell-Pope
Top Game Stacks: LAL/DEN, PHI/NYK
Pending Injury News: Embiid (Q), James (P), Davis (P)
We’ve got a four-game playoff slate this Saturday that is spread out throughout the day on both sites. All of the games are projected to be relatively close with the highest spread being -7.5 in the Lakers/Nuggets matchup. The pricing is much tighter on FanDuel as we’ll see a theme of large discrepancies in pricing, so it’ll be a bit tougher to build over there compared to DraftKings. Let’s get rolling!
ORL/CLE
This matchup features two of the slowest teams in the league in terms of pace and both have been great defensively throughout the season. This is the lowest total of the slate at 207.5 points with the Cavs listed as 4.5-point favorites. We’ll start with the Orlando side of this game as they find themselves as 4.5-point dogs in this one. This team led by Paolo Banchero has had a great season having outperformed expectations greatly, as many didn’t expect them to be in this position so soon. The young star leads the Magic in usage at 29.9% and is averaging over 22 PPG on the season. Banchero gets one of the few good matchups that this team will have as the Cavs are below average against opposing 4’s. Paulo is at a reasonable price on both sites, but is even better on DK where he’s $600 cheaper. He has legit 50+ fantasy point upside which would slot him for around 6X of his price. He can be considered in all formats on DK and GPPs on FD. Franz Wagner is the clear 2nd option on this team as he’s second in usage at 25.9% and is averaging a shade under 20 PPG. Wagner’s matchup is also much better than the guards and he’s at a great price on DraftKings specifically where’s just above 6K and is $1,300 cheaper than on FD. Wagner also has 6-7X upside at his price on DraftKings and can be considered for all formats on DK. The Center position for the Magic is going to be very volatile as we get a feel for how they’re going to distribute the minutes and if the rotations remain consistent. It’s worth stating that Wendell Carter Jr. did not start in his last outing as he’s been dealing with a nagging back injury, which could impact his role in game one. As a result, Jonathan Isaac saw an uptick in minutes and looked solid with the starting five in his last outing. Isaac becomes a great value if he ends up starting over Carter again as he’s around 1K cheaper than Carter on each site. Mo Wagner had a nice finish to the season, but it’s unlikely that he sees enough minutes to make him relevant in this series. Next, we have Jalen Suggs who finished the season strong and scored at least 18 points in four of the last five games. Suggs is one of the cheaper pieces on this slate that can provide some viable value as he’s displayed 35+ fantasy points upside recently. Lastly, we have Cole Anthony who can be considered as a deep dart GPP play as his minutes are too volatile. Anthony likely won’t see a ton of minutes unless he comes out hot in his first rotation. He’s at a similar price to Suggs and he just doesn’t have the same guarantee for minutes and opportunity. There’s legit upside if he comes out scoring the ball, as we’ve seen him double his minutes and approach 8-10X when he’s scoring at an efficient level, but it’s a super risky play.
The Cavaliers are hosting in this one and are listed as 4.5-point favorites. The Cavs are looking to bounce back from a disappointing exit to the Knicks in last year’s postseason. This feels like a similar spot as last year as the Magic are young, defensive-minded, and scrappy as well. Cleveland is led by Donovan Mitchell who leads the team in usage and PPG on the season. Spida gets a tough matchup against a Magic team that is elite against opposing guards, but his price on DK still makes him enticing regardless of the matchup and low total. Mitchell is at a much more reasonable price on DK where he’s $1,400 cheaper, he can be considered for GPPs on DraftKings and should only be reserved for deep GPPs on FanDuel. He has 50+ fantasy point upside like Banchero and a pretty safe floor at his current price. Next, we have Darius Garland who was second on this team in usage and PPG on the year. He is one of the few that has a similar price on both sites which makes him a really good option on FanDuel as he’s underpriced compared to those around him. His price is solid on DraftKings, he’ll just command less ownership which makes him enticing in GPPs. The upside is nice, but the floor isn’t very steady as he’s gone below 30 fantasy points on a few occasions over the last couple of weeks. However, when looking into those games, it seems that Darius scaled back his aggressiveness in those games. He got up less than 12 shots in those three outings and two of them were single-digit shot attempt games. It’s unlikely that Garland is tentative in a playoff environment today. He makes for a solid option to differentiate your lineups on DK in GPPs and can be considered (but not prioritized) in the mid-range in cash formats on FD. The last viable Cavs are Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen who both don’t really project well. This is a tough matchup for the bigs and much of the scoring production will likely come from the Cleveland guards, so there’s not a ton to love here unless you’re committing to a full game stack. We prefer Allen of the two as he’s flashed more upside and consistency than Mobley has.
PHX/MIN
The Phoenix Suns vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves is one of the most intriguing first-round matchups this year with a Minnesota team that has surprised many with a great season. This game has a low total of 214.5 and a spread of just 2.5 with the Wolves favored. We’ll start with the Phoenix side of things in this one. The top guys like Kevin Durant and Devin Booker aren’t projecting for much ownership in this tough matchup which makes them interesting GPP options. Bradley Beal is at a massive price discrepancy as he’s $1,500 cheaper on DK and is in the mid-range pricing there, he’s a worthy option in all formats at his price. Grayson Allen is at a solid price on both sites and should carry some ownership on both DK and FD as he provides some value. He’s a solid option in that 5K range as Phoenix will need his scoring in this one.
As far as the Wolves go, they are led by Anthony Edwards who will be key in deciding how far this team can go. He moved up to a true Alpha role this year with KAT sidelined. His numbers towards the end of the year tailed off just a bit, but we think that was mostly due to illness, rest, etc. He is a GPP option we have our eyes on today, in hopes he can get back to that 1.25 DK points per minute he averages normally or even more. Mike Conley actually is showing as the best value today for the T-Wolves. He can provide some nice salary relief in lineups and his role is rock solid. He averages right at a point per minute and he was actually their best player in the reg season finale loss to Phoenix. These are the only two plays we are really looking at from Minnesota.
PHI/NYK
This is another projected defensive battle as the total is at just 208.5 points which is just a point higher than the lowest total (ORL/CLE). The 76ers find themselves in the best spot they could’ve hoped for with a matchup against the Knicks as Joel Embiid tries to get healthier by day. He’s the second highest-priced player on the slate behind only Nikola Jokic and for good reason. Embiid really started to find his stride to close out the regular season as he averaged 65+ fantasy points in the final two games. He struggled against the Heat, but he had a monster fourth quarter that almost made up for a rough first half. He makes for an interesting GPP pivot off of Jokic if you’re wanting to pay up at the top, his upside is similar but the floor is shakier with the injured knee. He can be considered in-game stacks and as a standalone in GPPs on both sites. Tyrese Maxey is going to have to play a big part in this offense if the 76ers want to get past the Knicks this year. From a DFS perspective, Maxey’s peripheral stats have been down lately which has led to some down games. He’s simply too expensive of an option when guys like Banchero, Murray, and Mitchell hover around his price. You can make the case for him if you’re expecting a tight game that surpasses the total as either Embiid or Maxey will likely be playing a big part. The problem is, there’s just not much upside for Maxey here unless he goes for 50 or has a near triple-double which feels very unlikely in this spot. You can chase the upside in deep GPPs, but we don’t love it in other formats on either site. Kelly Oubre saw big minutes against the Heat as he registered 37 and will likely see a similar dose today. Oubre has flashed upside throughout the season, but his floor has also not been steady. He’s also priced around guys that are much better options, so he’s best reserved as a pivot to be more unique as he won’t possess ownership beyond the teens on either site. Next we have Tobias Harris who is a better option on DK where he’s $1,100 cheaper and just a hair above 6K. He has solid upside and a solid floor at his price on DK, but should only be considered in-game stacks or as a GPP option to differentiate your lineups. Lastly, Kyle Lowry and Nicolas Batum saw an uptick in minutes in the Heat game as they played a big part in the victory. We wouldn’t chase those performances as that just hasn’t been a consistent output from either of those guys and there are better options when looking for value on this slate.
What’s convenient about the Knicks and Thibs is that he was basically already playing his guys playoff minutes, so there’s not much of a difference here. It’s worth noting that the Knicks have a few guys that’ll be on the chalkier side of things. We’ll start with Jalen Brunson who had a fantastic season and was the main reason this team finished as the two seed. He leads this team in usage by a mile, especially since Randle’s injury. Brunson has elite upside as he’s gone for 59+ fantasy points in five of the last seven games. He’s simply too cheap for that kind of production and should be considered in all formats on both sites. Josh Hart was another pivotal piece for this Knicks team that maintained momentum despite losing Julius Randle. We saw his role transcend into a guy who routinely flirted with triple-doubles and was their best rebounder to close the season out. Hart is also a bit too cheap and presents a good combination of upside and security at his price on both sites. He can be considered in all formats on both DK and FD. Donte DiVincenzo is another guy who saw his role increase after the trade deadline and Randle’s injury. DiVincenzo should see massive minutes in this one and will be the second scoring option behind Brunson. There’s less safety here as Donte is heavily reliant on his scoring for DFS production. However, he still presents good upside at his current price on both sites. Isaiah Hartenstein is the next Knick that looks great on both sites as he’s one of the best pt/$ plays on the slate on DK. We like him on DK only as he’s $2,400 cheaper than on FD. This flat-out just feels like a mispricing on DraftKings as he’s surpassed 30+ fantasy points in five of the last 6 games. We wouldn’t overthink playing him on DK in all formats. Lastly, we have OG Anunoby who is also a bit underpriced, but on both sites. He should see massive minutes and is at just 5K on DK and sub 6K on FanDuel. The peripherals haven’t been great for OG lately, but he’s so cheap that the floor performances recently keep him around 5X. He has solid upside, but I’d certainly prioritize some of the other Knicks. We’d rank them: Hartenstein, Brunson, Hart, Anunoby, DiVincenzo.
LAL/DEN
The late-night hammer tonight is probably the optimal game to attack today. The game has the highest total of the night by far, and while it technically has the largest spread, it’s only a 6.5 pt spread so nothing that scares us away. We will start with the reigning champs, the Denver Nuggets. Nikola Jokic is our highest projected scorer and it’s not particularly close. We have him projected for almost 10 more points than the 2nd highest scorer on the slate. The fact that he is over 11k and still rates out as a top 5 Pt/$ play is pretty crazy and tells you all you need to know. Joker has had 15 straight double-doubles with 4 triple-doubles included in that span. He has also owned the Lakers this year, averaging over 63 fantasy points and one assist shy of averaging a triple-double! Jamal Murray is also a great play in this game. He ranks as our top Pt/$ play for the slate. He will benefit from the biggest pace boost as the Lakers are towards the top of the league in pace. He has been playing at a borderline elite 1.61 DK points per minute in his last 5 full games. He has been playing limited minutes towards the end of the year but we fully expect Playoff Murray to emerge again and his price tag is just too cheap for the player he is. The Nuggets love-fest doesn’t stop there, we like their entire starting lineup. Michael Porter and Aaron Gordon both rank in our top 10 in Pt/$ as well. The aforementioned pace boost helps these guys. Porter has scored in double digits in his past 20 games and averaged 1.01 fantasy points per minute. Gordon averages 1.07 fantasy points per game. His solid floor and cheap price tag make him a great play. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a solid value option as he will get plenty of run and take plenty of shots. In fact in his only game against his former team this year he scored over 30 fantasy points!
The Lakers side starts with Lebron James and Anthony Davis, per usual. It’s the playoffs and we expect both to be good to go. All signs point towards AD’s back being ok for now. Both of these stars are in our top 10 for pts/$ today. Lebron continues to have that Tom Brady secret of beating Father Time and the few days of extra rest will help. He has averaged an impressive 1.44 fantasy points per game, and that is as the oldest man in the league who has to pick and choose his spots. We fully expect LeBron to try and turn back the clock and carry his team today and steal one in Denver early if they are gonna have any shot of upsetting the Champs. AD has been just as good as Bron when he has been available. We have his projections a touch higher due to his high rebound rates. He has averaged slightly more fantasy points against the Nuggs this year than his average. Another great trend is that he has actually been better in the last 12 full games and moved his average from 1.49 to 1.56 per minute. They are both great plays if you believe in the Lakers. The other 3 starters for the Lake show are all playable but not priorities. The “other 3” for the Nuggets rate out better than the Lakers. Austin Reaves would be our favorite of the others as he offers multiple positionality and is slightly cheaper the Russell. He also doesn’t need the ball in his hands as much as Russell so seems to go off more than Russell when Bron and AD are both in. D’Angelo Russell will likely have to deal with KCP, and in last year’s series, that didn’t go well for him, so he is a play we aren’t too fond of in this otherwise great game.