Optimal Plays: Doncic (FD), Embiid (DK), Haliburton, Siakam, Maxey (DK), Middleton (DK), Portis, Hart (FD), Harris (FD), Beverley, McDaniels (FD), McConnell
GPP Plays: Doncic (DK), Embiid (FD), Brunson, Edwards, Harden (FD), Hart (DK), Turner, Beal, Lopez, Zubac, Alexander-Walker, Nembhard (DK)
Top Game Stacks: MIL/IND (Optimal), MIN/PHX, LAL/DAL, NY/PHI
Pending Injury News: Doncic (Q), Antetokounmpo (D), Embiid (Q), Lillard (D), Leonard (Q), Allen (Q), Robinson (Q), Hardaway Jr. (D), Anderson (Q)
We have another big playoff slate of 4 games on tap this Sunday! The big thing shaping the slate will be the Bucks and their injury status, as both Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo are listed as doubtful, and are unlikely to play. That will be our optimal game for the day, but there are plenty of other good GPP situations in our other games, so let’s get to it!
MIL/IND
The game between the Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers has a larger spread for a playoff game at -9.5 points but still has our highest total at 216.5. As we’ve seen though, teams don’t sit guys very fast in the playoffs even if it is a blowout, with limited in-game time available to them and not wanting to screw around and let a comeback happen. On the Pacers’ side, Tyrese Haliburton is coming off of a triple-double, although a lot of that was boosted by overtime and the Bucks’ inability to grab defensive rebounds. He still shot terribly (1-12 on 3-pointers) and doesn’t look great, but at least took 22 shots. His willingness to bomb away is going to create a higher ceiling for him, and if those start going in, we could see a blow-up game for him. Myles Turner continues to see a ton of minutes, as Carlisle doesn’t seem to trust either Jalen Smith or Isaiah Jackson in this series with minutes. He’s shooting 40% from 3 so far this series with over 8 attempts a game and is still too cheap on DK at $6.8k, where he’s a much stronger play. Pascal Siakam came back to earth and stopped shooting 60% in game 3, as Milwaukee went to a lot of zone to take away the inside game he was killing them with previously. We’ve seen his ceiling though and the games he is capable of. Aaron Nesmith is still just shooting 20% on wide-open 3s this series on 5 attempts a game, and you have to think he’s going to get on the right side of variance eventually. He’s played at least 36 minutes a game in this series, and had two games over 30 DK points, so he’s got the chance to explode if those shots start dropping. Andrew Nembhard has been very efficient with his scoring in game 2 and game 3, which is what’s led to his nice games. He is still viable specifically on DK with only a $4.4k price tag, but his floor is lower than we’ve seen in the last couple of games. Obi Toppin has been the only Pacers bench guy getting enough usage to be useful in this series and is still in play to save some salary with the way he’s rebounding.
For the Bucks, the biggest decision will be if we expect the game to stay close. If you’re building for a closer game, you can get up to four Bucks on your roster. If you want to build more for a blowout, you can cut it down to as few as two, but you will want some of this team in all formats. Khris Middleton and Bobby Portis should get all the usage they can handle. There’s not much to say about them other than the ceilings will be huge and they will be popular, but if this game stays close it’s because both of them are having big games. Patrick Beverley should be the primary ball handler with Lillard out, and even with his price starting to come up, won’t be priced for the bigger role he’ll have. Brook Lopez might see a few more shots trickle down to him and will be a leverage play from the Bucks as he’s not getting much projected ownership, but he will still be a better cash game play than GPP. Malik Beasley has seen his minutes get cut way back since the second half of Game 2, but if he starts that’s a sign they coming back to him and he can be played on both sites at his lower price. We think Pat Connaughton might start in Lillard’s absence though. He’s just not a very productive fantasy player at this stage of his career, but if he sees 30+ minutes, could just fall into 20-22 fantasy points. For those two guys specifically, we’d say the one who starts can be played, and the other one should just be avoided. The rest of the bench guys for the Bucks will probably mix and match, but we think none of them are likely to see over 16-18 minutes. The starters will probably all be at 32 minutes or higher as Doc just tries to ride what he feels are his five best guys as they try to get through this game.
LAC/DAL
The game between the LA Clippers and Dallas Mavericks has the Mavs as 6-point favorites, in a game with a 209 total. On the Clippers side, it’s clear Kawhi Leonard just isn’t himself. He’s been playing limited minutes, which has hurt in fantasy, not just because we can’t count on him, but also because it is eating into others’ opportunities. James Harden is still playing a ton of minutes though, and has enough ceiling to consider, especially on DK where he’s priced under $8k. Paul George can bounce back and have a great game, but he’s struggled with the defense of Washington and Jones in this series. The man who isn’t struggling is Ivica Zubac, who the Mavs continue to have no answer for. He currently has less than 5% projected ownership on FD, 8% on DK, and has shown this is a matchup he can go for 40 fantasy points. Norman Powell usually relies on scoring for his production, so we don’t like to play him with higher ownership projections with not much of a floor game. As long as he’s under 20% projected ownership like he is now, he can be someone we look to for a bit of salary relief, as he got going last game and they need his scoring.
On the Dallas side, they come in as 5.5-point favorites and look to put this series in a stranglehold. Luka Doncic hasn’t had to be extraordinary (for his standards) in this series yet, but he’s still posted an average of 57.34 FPPG to start the series. He possesses the highest floor and upside of anyone on this slate and should be a staple for many of your lineups on both sites. He won’t be ultra chalk as many will elect to be more balanced with a lack of value on this slate or they’ll pivot to Embiid. Kyrie Irving had a big start to the series, but he’s since cooled off a bit from a DFS perspective. He’s still been just short of 5X in the last two games, so the floor has been steady. He can be considered in GPPs on both sites as he has good upside at his current price. Dallas seems to have found their enforcer in PJ Washington. He’s averaged over 35 minutes in this series and has been around 5X in each. He’s a solid play, but the upside just hasn’t been there to start the series. Gafford, Jones, and Lively are solid options within the game stack, but we’d limit to choosing a max of two of those guys if you’re not playing Washington. Otherwise, they kind of all cannibalize each other and don’t have much upside together.
MIN/PHX
The Minnesota Timberwolves are looking to complete the sweep of the Phoenix Suns in this Game 4. They are favored to do so, sitting as 1.5 favorites in a game featuring a 212-point spread. For Minnesota, Anthony Edwards has been fabulous in two of the three games this series. He’s averaging 28 points a game on 49/37/91 percentage splits so far and was a perfect 11-11 from the line in Game 3. While there’s no way to predict or quantify something like this, we think it means a lot to this team to sweep Phoenix after all the noise of what a terrible matchup this would be heading into the series, and Antman has shown that killer instinct before. He’s not projected for much ownership on either site and could be a great GPP play. Rudy Gobert has been excellent in this series as well, and not just defensively. He’s been incredibly efficient this series, at 16-22 from the field and 19-22 from the free throw line. He is starting to attract some projected ownership, particularly on DK where he’s $7.2k, but not enough to scare us off of using him. Mike Conley has found his 3-point stroke in the last 2 games and has put up scores of over 30 DK points. He’s usually a cash game type and not one we use as much in GPPs, but on these short playoff slates, he can be used in those as well. Karl Anthony-Towns still can’t avoid dumb fouls, which has cut into his ceiling this series while guarding KD a lot. He still hasn’t killed you in two games this series, but just isn’t providing a ceiling that we’d like to see when we click on his name. If he ever stops fouling, the ceiling is there for sure. Jaden McDaniels came back to earth after his out-of-body experience in Game 2. He’s going to be on the floor a ton still and isn’t super expensive, but the fantasy floor is so scary we prefer going elsewhere. His teammate Nickeil Alexander-Walker would be one of those other places. He’s been huge this series, averaging over 30 minutes a game and a very productive 14.7/2.7/4 line in that time. His price has crept up a bit, but still isn’t seeing the projected ownership we’d expect.
For Phoenix, it continues to be about their Big 3 of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal. All have had their moments (good and bad) in this series, but none of them have stepped up and taken on any sort of alpha role. With the prices they are at, they’ve been tough to play as they all have nice, but not great games (with the exception being Beal in Game 3). We would put Beal as our favorite play of these three for today since he was getting more aggressive in the last game and they seemed to realize he’s getting the softest defensive matchup, which they need to exploit and make Minnesota re-think some coverages. The other two are just tough at their current prices, as Minnesota has locked them up. Jusuf Nurkic needs to come up huge on the boards for them to have any chance, but he disappeared in Game 3 after a nice Game 2. We’d look elsewhere for your center options. Eric Gordon has been reliable off the bench, and he’s in play if Grayson Allen misses again. He’s outplaying Royce O’Neale this series, who just has been too unproductive in this matchup to count on.
NY/PHI
The 76ers slot in as 5.5-point favorites and look to even the series here in a big Game 4.
This game has a total of 208.5 points which is an uptick from the previous totals as Game 3 was a high-scoring affair. We’ll start with the Knicks’ side of things as they look to get things back on track in Game 4. Jalen Brunson is coming off of a massive performance in which he went for 60+ fantasy points as he had a 39-point triple-double. The big difference in Game 3 was the Knicks weren’t in control of the pace of the game and NY found themselves down for much of the game. In these types of environments, Brunson really tries to take over the offense, which ends up being great for DFS. Regardless of the game environment, he’s at the same price as the last slate on DK and a similar price on FD which is still too cheap. His floor is still around 5X and if this game remains competitive with the 76ers leading throughout, Brunson has legit upside. He can be considered for GPPs on both sites to pair with Doncic/Embiid or he can also be a starting point for your GPP lineups to differentiate from the popular builds. Josh Hart had another solid game and once again found a way to be viable and hit over 5X of his price. He didn’t have a huge game rebounding, but he was able to score efficiently and he racked up six assists as well. Hart’s ability to rack up peripheral stats and also consistently be a second or third-scoring option on this offense makes him a great play once again. OG Anunoby continues to see massive minutes and had a nice outing in Game 3. We mentioned this in the last write-up, but OG is a guy that’ll have to rely on his scoring for a high-upside game. He just doesn’t rack up the peripherals enough, so his high-upside games typically occur when he’s shooting the ball well from three. He’s a decent play on DK only where he’s $1,100 cheaper, but his ceiling is realistically around 6X of his price on DraftKings. DiVincenzo and Hartenstein should only be reserved for multi-entry GPPs or within the game stack only.
As mentioned, the 76ers are 5.5-point favorites and look to even the series at home. Joel Embiid had a massive game as he went for 50 points on a very efficient night as he shot over 90% from the line and over 65% from the field. Embiid has a knack for playing big when his team needs him and he did just that in Game 3. His price has gone up a few hundred dollars from then, but he’s still too cheap for the massive upside he has. He’s heavily preferred on DraftKings where he’s $1,200 cheaper than on FanDuel. He’s also $1,300 cheaper than Luka on DK while he’s just $500 cheaper than Luka on FD. The discrepancy in pricing does open up an opportunity to take a stand on FanDuel in GPPs and play Embiid over Luka as many will just try to find the $500 to get up to Doncic. Tyrese Maxey also had a nice game as he had 25 points and went for 45+ fantasy points on Thursday night. Maxey is too cheap on DraftKings for the production we’ve seen to start the series as he remains at $8K over there. He’s $1,300 cheaper on FanDuel, so he should be considered in GPPs over there. Tobias Harris is once again carrying some ownership, but this is a full fade here. The guy has continued to be as inconsistent as they come and the ceiling isn’t worth the risk that comes with playing him. Oubre and Batum are deep dart options within the game stack only as they can be viable in a Sixers win like the last game.