Optimal Plays: Brunson, Hart, Towns (DK), Turner, Porter Jr., Gordon (FD), Conley, Nesmith, Caldwell-Pope (FD)
GPP Plays: Jokic, Edwards (DK), J.Murray, McDaniels, Reid, Nembhard, Alexander-Walker
Pending Injury News: Haliburton, Murray, Gobert
We’ve got a two-game slate tonight with the second round starting across the board now. On a two-game slate, we’ll have to be creative in differentiating from the field, so we’ll be digging into those opportunities. Let’s get to it!
IND/NY
We’ve got a classic rivalry matchup between the Pacers and Knicks with two teams that have contrasting styles of play. The total in this one is at 217.5 points which is nine points above the other game. The Pacers side of the game stack will be less appealing as most of them are already priced up from last series. This makes for a good opportunity to commit to both sides of the stack and gain some leverage on the field. We’ll start with Tyrese Haliburton who will go lower owned as he’s sandwiched between Hart and Edwards. Haliburton’s upside was limited against the Bucks as he eclipsed 50 fantasy points in only one game. His price is the cheapest we’ve seen since early on in the regular season, so we know he has upside at this price and maybe a new matchup unlocks that upside for him. He should only be played in GPPs within a gamestack as it makes more sense to save some salary and play Hart or pay up to Edwards or Brunson. Pascal Siakam is also sandwiched in the same price range as Haliburton and will go low-owned (for a two-game slate) as well. He cooled off after a massive start to the series in which he went for back-to-back 60+ fantasy point outbursts. Evidently, Siakam has the upside to break a slate, but he’s been inconsistent ever since game two and hasn’t been viable. He can be played in GPPs within a game stack and can gain you massive leverage with a ceiling performance, but there is risk. Myles Turner is projected to see lots of ownership on both sites. Turner had a great series against the Bucks, but he finished with two back-to-back clunkers to close the series out. He’s at a great price on both sites and should be primed for a bounceback. Turner is a great play in all formats on both sites and in all formats. A fade is viable because of the tough matchup against the Knicks, but he’s too cheap for the upside he carries. Aaron Nesmith will provide us with some value as he’s at $5K on FanDuel and sub $5K on DK. He saw at least 30 minutes in five of the six games in round one and saw at least 36 in four of the six games. His floor games haven’t killed you at his price and the upside has been nice, so he’s great in all formats on both sites tonight. Andrew Nembhard is in a similar boat to Nesmith as he saw a healthy dose of minutes in the first round and is close in price. He’s $800 cheaper on DraftKings, so he rates out much better over there. Nembhard has similar upside and higher floor than Nesmith but is projected for half the ownership, so he makes for a great play in GPPs on DraftKings. He should only be reserved for deep GPPs within the gamestack on FanDuel. Lastly, McConnell and Toppin should only be considered as deep GPP options within a gamestack or if you’re playing for a blowout.
The Knicks come in as 5.5-point favorites at home and look poised to continue their postseason run. They’ll be led by Jalen Brunson who was spectacular in the first round for them and is averaging 64.15 FPPG in the last four games. He’s still too cheap for the upside and floo we saw from him to close out the latter half of the series. He now gets a pace-up matchup against a defense that isn’t as good as the 76ers were. He makes for a great play on both sites and in all formats. The only reason you wouldn’t be playing Brunson is because you’re paying up for Jokic or Ant in GPPs as they’ll be lower-owned. Josh Hart will also see a healthy amount of ownership, and for good reason. He had a 15+ point double-double in four of the six games in the series and never dipped below 36 fantasy points in the entire series which is 5X of his current price. He’ll get a better matchup as well and is at his cheapest since game two of the first round. Hart is a great play in all formats on both sites and should be a staple for most of your lineups. We wouldn’t overthink fading him unless he doesn’t fit the construction of a lineup you love. OG Anunoby started to find a scoring rhythm in the last four games of the first round as he averaged 17.25 PPG in that stretch. He also flashed his ceiling in the rebounding department in a couple of those games as he had a 14-rebound outing and a 9-rebound game, both of those totals hadn’t been reached by him since mid-March. OG will continue to see massive minutes and makes for a solid play in cash games, but he lacks the upside to justify going overweight on the field in GPPs on a two-game slate. Donte DiVincenzo finally got out of his shooting slump and exploded for 50+ fantasy points to close out the 76ers. His price is down $1000+ since the playoffs started and that’s far too cheap if he’s out of the slump and we see anything close to his Game 6 performance. He has big upside at his price and should be an option in the mid-range on both sites in GPPs. We’d avoid him in cash until we start to see some consistency in his output and minutes again. Miles McBride saw his minutes reduced greatly in Game Six and it was largely due to DiVincenzo playing well again. McBride also struggled in his first rotation minutes, so that surely didn’t help the cause either. Thibs will likely ride the hot hand again with more leniency towards DiVincenzo because of the role he played throughout the regular season. McBride’s price is enticing as he offers some much-needed value, but the minutes are unpredictable given DiVincenzo’s resurgence and the way Thibs distributes minutes. Isaiah Hartenstein gets a good matchup here against a Pacers team that struggles in the paint. He’s coming off of a 30+ fantasy point outing in game six in which he saw 30 minutes. He’s a solid play on both sites, but lacks upside for GPPs so a fade is viable. Lastly, we have Mitchell Robinson who is a viable value piece as he saw at least 18 minutes in four of the five games he was available for in round one. It’s worth noting that the Knicks needed to have a 5 against Embiid and the Sixers at all times. This series could change the need for a 5 on the floor at all times which would hurt Robinson and Hartenstein and likely elevate Precious Achiuwa. As of right now, Robinson is a value option in GPPs, but there’s risk for a reduction in minutes. Precious Achiuwa is a shot in the dark, but he did see heavy minutes in the regular season and is someone Thibs relied on defensively. He’s best reserved for multi-entry GPPs as a dart play until we see how the rotations play out and if he gets any run at all.
MIN/DEN
The second game of the night is between the Denver Nuggets and the Minnesota Timberwolves and features the lower total (208.5) of the two games on the slate. The news of the day is Rudy Gobert has been listed as questionable due to personal reasons. If Gobert is able to suit up he would make for an excellent option in your lineups. He is a key piece to what Minnesota does defensively, including a nice defensive play where he took away the patented Jokic to Gordon lob late in the 4th quarter. Gobert should be able to rack up the defensive stats as well as rebounds again in this one, and he should once again play heavy minutes. Gobert finished with 35 DK points in Game 1 and he only had 6 actual points, showing he can have a great fantasy score without scoring the ball. If Gobert does not suit up, we should see more Naz Reid who had an excellent 4th quarter in Game 1. He scored 14 points in the final frame, helping to put away the Nuggets in Denver and seal the win for the Wolves. Reid would quickly become one of the best (if not the best) value options on the slate should Gobert eventually be ruled out. Reid is still more than viable should Gobert suit up, and would become a near lock if Gobert is out. Gobert’s partner in the Minnesota frontcourt, Karl-Anthony Towns, had a solid Game 1, though he once again had some issues with fouls. He shot the ball pretty efficiently but did not contribute much with peripheral stats, finishing with only 4 rebounds and 3 assists. He did play 31 minutes in Game 1 and we have him projected for similar minutes in Game 2, and he has a pretty attractive price on DraftKings. When Towns has it going and is locked in he has a ceiling that can reach the mid to high 40’s in fantasy points. Towns is a high-upside option in the midrange and is an excellent option to consider in all formats. Now we get to the star of the Minnesota Timberwolves Anthony Edwards who has been arguably the best player this postseason. Edwards closed out the Phoneix Suns in round 1 with 40 points and 68 DK points and had a repeat performance in Game 1 against the Nuggets where he finished with 43 points and 63 DK points. He has been incredible to say the least and he actually isn’t projected for heavy ownership. Edwards is currently projected for under 20% ownership and if this holds up we would be ecstatic to play him at this ownership in GPPs. Mike Conley had his best game of this postseason in Game 1 finishing with 14 points and 10 assists, leading to 37 fantasy points. He should play around 31 minutes again in Game 2 and the Wolves need his playmaking. He feels underpriced for the type of ceiling he can offer in this series, and it looks like ownership could follow that. Still, he makes for a solid option in the mid-range and he could very well have a repeat performance in Game 2. Jaden McDaniels played a huge 39 minutes in Game 1, though he did not do much from a fantasy score perspective. He did not score a point and finished with only 13 DK points. His impact is made on the defensive end and doing things that won’t show up in the box score. He did have 7 shot attempts including 2 three-point attempts, but he did not connect on any of his attempts. If McDaniels can be more efficient he can be serviceable, especially with his minutes upside. With not much being offered in terms of salary relief, McDaniels makes for a fine option. The last player to consider on the Minnesota side is Nickeil Alexander-Walker. NAW played 23 minutes in Game 1 but finished with only 4 DK points. We saw him have a huge impact in the first round, but that did not continue into this series. With Edwards getting the Jamal Murray assignment and Conley playing as well as he did, NAW was not needed as much. Maybe that changes for Game 2, but it’s difficult to get behind. He isn’t projected for much ownership if you do want to take that chance in GPPs, but it feels a bit thin.
On the Denver side, it starts with Nikola Jokic who still finished with 60 fantasy points despite the Nuggets struggling as a whole. He is a nightly triple-double and the scoring opportunities will be there for Joker in this series. We would consider him in all formats and he offers the highest ceiling of any player on the slate. Jamal Murray was a big letdown in Game 1 and it’s fair to question his health as he finished with 25 DK points in 34 minutes after he was playing about 40 minutes a night against the Lakers. He also gets tough defensive matchups with Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. It’s a tough spot for Jamal and if he is not 100% we would expect the struggles to continue into Game 2. He does however project for under 20% ownership so if the field is uneasy about playing Murray after Game 1 then we want to get some exposure to Murray. He is a GPP option who can obviously break a slate when he is right. Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon are two secondary Nuggets to consider. We saw MPJ pick up where he left off in the Lakers series as he finished with 38 fantasy points in 40 minutes played. He has been excellent this postseason and that should continue into Game 2. Gordon struggled in Game 1 thanks in large part to the excellent rim projection of the Timberwolves. Gordon relies on inside scoring and hustle plays such as second-chance rebounds, and the Wolves are great at limiting both. Gordon is not known for his outside shot so we could see similar results for Gordon in Game 2. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope didn’t have his most impactful game and only took 4 shots, all being three-point attempts. He did play 37 minutes and we have him projected for similar minutes in Game 2, so if you are looking for a value piece in your lineups you could do worse than KCP, particularly on FanDuel. He does offer a ceiling when he is hitting his outside shot, but that may be hard to come by in this series.