Optimal Plays: Sabonis, Monk (DK), Zubac, Simons (DK), DeRozan (DK), C. Anthony (FD), White (FD), S. Sharpe (FD), Coulibaly (FD), K. Murray (DK), Grant (FD), Camara (FD), Banton (DK), Lyles (DK)
GPP Plays: Davis, James, Fox, Banchero (FD), LaVine, Vucevic, Jal. Williams, Reaves, Carter Jr. (FD), Hachimura, Lopez, Christie, Kispert
Blowout Plays: Council, Edwards, Hollins, Wiggins, McLaughlin, Butler
Pending Injury News: Jokic, Davis, Gilgeous-Alexander, Harden, P. George, Johnson, Powell, Zubac, Avdija, Gordon, Brogdon, Ayton, Yabusele, Martin, Ball, Ellis, D. Sharpe
Welcome to Sunday NBA, where we have a 6-game slate on FD that included the 6 PM ET game, and a 5-gamer on the DK where they excluded it. Most eyes will again be on football as the Divisional Round concludes, but there are still contests and money to be made in the NBA! As always, we’ll have injuries covered in Discord up to tipoff so keep your eyes peeled. This slate has also got several spots for potential blowouts. Keep in mind as we suggest some guys for that scenario, we don’t want to go crazy and get tons of these guys in, they are just meant to be sprinkled in with 1, or maybe 2 if you want to get really creative, to take advantage of the possibility, and all still have a floor of 0 if the game is close. With all that in mind, let’s get into it!
The FD-only game features the Denver Nuggets and the Orlando Magic. Not much is standing out for Denver with everyone projected in and prices inflated from injuries. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray have shown great ceilings this year and are both projected for almost no ownership, but with Orlando being so good defensively, we would only play 1 of them. For Orlando, Wendell Carter has had to play a lot with all the injuries to the frontline and is the best point-per-dollar play on FD with under 20% expected ownership. He makes an excellent GPP play. Cole Anthony is playing a ton with all the point guard injuries so he makes a good cash game target, but his ownership is high enough we’d start to shy away in GPPs. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a dangerous target in our estimation, as his current minutes projection hasn’t been hit in his last 3 games as he nurses an injury. Lastly, Paolo Banchero hit 29 minutes last game where they started pulling guys with seven minutes left due to a blowout, so he could be ready to hit the low 30s. That minutes range has come up enough that as his current price, can be a GPP play, but at 21% projected ownership he won’t be sneaky, so you just know you don’t have that going for you, and fading him will still have plenty of merit.
Next up we have the Philadelphia 76ers and the Milwaukee Bucks. This is our first of three games with a double-digit spread, but the lowest of those at 12.5 points in Milwaukee’s favor. Philly isn’t a picture of health yet, but they are projected to have a couple more guys. This is a team we need to keep an eye on for injuries, but as it stands now, Eric Gordon at only $3.3k on DK would be our only play of real interest. If this game goes the blowout way, Ricky Council and Justin Edwards have been ending games and being fairly productive in it, while probably getting a few minutes in the normal rotation. We’ll want to be aware of injury news on this team as it could change their status to being great value plays. For the Bucks, Brook Lopez is down to $4.8k on DK and is an excellent value for GPPs. Giannis Antetokounmpo won’t have anything to deter him in this matchup and is firmly a very good stud option here, with only reduced minutes to a blowout being of concern. If this game does go the way of a blowout, Bobby Portis becomes quite fragile, as he’s in the tough spot of the rotation of not getting enough minutes to matter without his 4th quarter time, and also doesn’t get garbage time. He was at 18 minutes the last time that happened. Doc really likes to rotate his end-of-the-bench guys in blowouts, but Ryan Rollins would be our choice for this team.
Our next game has big blowout potential if everyone plays, and features the Brooklyn Nets visiting the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are whopping 16.5-point favorites. Brooklyn can be avoided if there isn’t anyone ruled out for them, as they’d have a full rotation minus Cam Thomas available for the first time in a while. If this game turns blowout, the biggest problem is how priced up their guys are from all the injuries. The best target would be Day’Ron Sharpe, who’s had 36+ fantasy points in his last two games where he got over 20 minutes. He popped up questionable late on the injury report, so we’ll want to keep an eye on that. For OKC, Jaylin Williams has had 17 and 31 minutes since the Hartenstein injury but had a double-double when he was on the floor long enough. He’s still playable on DK at $4k, just be aware of how volatile he is. The value on this team is much better on DK all around, and the low prices of Cason Wallace and Lu Dort make them usable, both have been closing in close games but getting no blowout minutes. If SGA misses due to injury again the likelihood of this game staying closer goes way up, and they can be played together in that scenario then, but are an either/or with him in the lineup. Jalen Williams will probably be very popular if SGA misses, but he will be the go-to guy. He took twice as many shots as the next person on the team when SGA was out against Dallas, and this is a much better matchup. Aaron Wiggins has been getting blowout run and would be our favorite target here for that scenario.
Kicking off our three latest games at 9 PM ET will be the Washington Wizards and Sacramento Kings. This game somehow has a bigger spread than Brooklyn and OKC, with Sacramento installed as a 17-point favorite. This game is tricky, as it has a ton of great plays that will be popular, but will everyone get enough minutes to get there? Malik Monk, Domantas Sabonis, and DeMar DeRozan are all optimal on one of the two sites, as Washington loves to get up and down the floor but has no one who could even stop a grandma going down the street with a walker. We would only play one of these guys in GPPs unless building for a closer-than-expected game. De’Aaron Fox would land in the pool of “only 1” in GPPs too due to the blowout risk. Keegan Murray should get plenty of wide-open 3s here, and he’s shooting them at a 47.7% clip in January. Trey Lyles is only $3.4k on DK so he’s coming in as an optimal play, but we would throw a bit of caution there since he’s like Portis, where he’s important enough to the rotation he won’t play in garbage time, but really needs those extra 3-4 minutes in the 4th to reach his value. Particularly in GPPs, we can find some better options. If this game goes the way of a blowout, Jordan McLaughlin is our favorite guy to play into that, just bear in mind Sacramento doesn’t have anyone to fit the mold of a guy who gets a sprinkle of minutes in the normal rotation and also garbage time, so seeing 0 minutes is a possibility. On Washington’s side, Bilal Coulibaly continues to be underpriced on FD and his huge minutes load gives him a ceiling at $5.5k. On DK, Corey Kispert is interesting with the bonus points we get for 3-pointers, as is Kyshawn George as his price should be over $4k for the amount of time he is playing. Jared Butler is the garbage time king here, and he could even see a few minutes sprinkled into the early rotation.
We have the battle for LA, as the Los Angeles Lakers visit the Los Angeles Clippers. Max Christie is an interesting value piece for the Lakers. He’s getting 33.4 minutes a game this month as their only real defensive guy on the perimeter, and while he’s only hit 30+ fantasy points once (a whopping 43!), he has had plenty of games in the high 20s. On a day like today where a lot of starters could see their minutes cut, it lowers the possibility we get the 30+ point game needed to win tournaments from a non-stud starter, and that 26-29 point game becomes quite valuable in GPPs. He won’t be sneaky on FD, but his projected ownership is still modest where he’s $300 cheaper than DK, and we really like him in a game projected to be close for both sites. Anthony Davis and LeBron James are in an either/or situation but will be in the running for the highest score of the slate since there is a high likelihood they need to play full minutes here. Even with that, they are projecting very low ownership. If either of those guys misses, Austin Reaves then profiles as a high-ceiling stud and he can be stacked with the one of AD/LeBron who are playing. Even if all three are in, with him having 8+ assists in four of his last eight games, he is an interesting stacking partner for the one you choose to include. Because Redick is riding his starters so hard, Rui Hachimura is also an excellent option for game stacks, as he will round out the closing group including all five guys we have now mentioned. As good as this game should be, less stands out for the Clippers with some inflated prices with recent injuries. If anyone sits out, that could all change, but Ivica Zubac is in an excellent spot no matter what, that only becomes better if AD surprisingly sits out here. Even with him in the lineup, their rim defense has been soft, and Zubac racks up the boards when the opposing center doesn’t have to be chased out to the perimeter very much. It’s hard to know who could end up closing here for stacking with pending injury news, but keep an eye on the starting lineup, as Lue has most often stuck with that group recently to end games.
Closing out the night we have the Chicago Bulls and the Portland Trail Blazers. This features two teams in the bottom 10 on the season for defensive rating, and the Bulls still speed the game up at 2nd in pace. With this combination, a ton of Blazers are in very strong spots on paper. Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe lead the team in usage rate and will have the ball in their hands plenty as the starting guards. Both of them are seeing their highest scoring average in a month during January, while Simons has his highest assist rate and Sharpe his highest rebounding rate this month as well. Speaking of scoring, Toumani Camara has hit double-figures in 7 of 9 games this month, while playing the most minutes of the year at 33.4 over that span. Jerami Grant saw his price come down enough due to injury layoff that even if he’s limited to 25 minutes again, he can put up a score worth having in this game environment. Without any real rim protection to speak of for Chicago, DeAndre Ayton is in a great spot to rack up the points and rebounds, giving him a nice ceiling at his price. While he most likely won’t close with guys getting healthy, Dalano Banton is still only $3.5k on DK, and with his rate of 1.1 FPPM, can be a nice value play there. For Chicago, Coby White will be popular with his $6.5k price tag on both sites and has rebounded from his December shooting slump this month, hitting 41.9% from three. If Zach LaVine can go, this game environment is the type that he can crush as he loves to play in transition. Lonzo Ball won’t close, but he has been excellent in his minutes and is up to 25 or more in his last three games. His price hasn’t quite come up enough to erase the ceiling he has with that load. Nikola Vucevic is in a great spot just like Ayton, as neither is a great defensive stopper, and he should see plenty of his 3’s be wide-open when he ventures out to the perimeter. Good luck to everyone this evening!