Optimal Plays: Jokic (DK). Durant, James (FD), Randle (FD), Reaves (DK), Beal (FD), T.Jones, Vassell (DK), Nurkic (FD), Schroder (FD), Conley, Reid (DK), Gafford (DK), Jackson-Davis (FD)
GPP Plays: Doncic, Wembanyama, Davis, Towns, Curry, Brunson, Porzingis, Sochan, Bridges, Anunoby, Gordon, O’Neale, McDaniels, McBride, Alexander-Walker
Pending Injury News: Tatum, Booker, White, Russell, Allen, Holiday, Drummond, Payton II
Merry Christmas everyone! We are super excited for a full day of fun with everyone and we should have an amazing slate of games in store today. This slate is like Thanksgiving for football, where we get to watch every game happen before the next one locks, so be sure to take advantage of late swap situations with the knowledge each game gives us! Did you miss out on a chalky guy who went nuts? We can get a little more different and still chase a min-cash, even if it’s not sexy it’s better than coal in your stocking! Nailed a guy at 10% ownership early on that went nuts? You can block the chalk and keep them from catching you by playing more of it in the later games! If you have questions don’t be afraid to ask on Discord as the day goes, as in between games we’re planning on having a few minutes available to answer any questions on this!
First up, we have the San Antonio Spurs visiting the New York Knicks. All our games have a single-point spread which is nice, even this one at 9 points we wouldn’t put too much thought into possible blowouts when constructing rosters. For the visitors, Devin Vassell has been back to his full complement of minutes recently, and on DK at only $4.9k he is a bargain, even though he should be very popular. On FD he is usable, but not near the priority. Victor Wembanyama has been on a tear this month, having scored 60+ fantasy points in four games. He’s still bombing away from 3 and hitting them at 39%, but also has 4.8 blocks per game in December. He’s looking to be one of the least popular studs and has the potential to put up the highest score on the slate. Jeremy Sochan is usually thought of as more of a cash-game player, but he’s had 40+ fantasy points twice in his last four games. His matchup is probably going to be Hart, which is less than ideal, but he is the best pick-n-roll screener in the league who averages more than 1 possession in that role. Plus having green hair on Christmas can’t hurt, right? He is a usable piece from the Spurs. For the home team, OG Anunoby is coming off of 2 great games where he’s been over 30 fantasy points. He isn’t someone we’re super excited to play into ownership, and he’s teetering on being too popular in early projections to love. If he’s at about 17% or under, he would be fine, otherwise, we’d prefer Mikal Bridges who’s more involved in the offense and coming in at almost half the ownership right now. With everyone healthy, those 3 wing guys including Josh Hart just don’t go off very often together, so we’d play just 1 of those 3 options, and we prefer to keep it between Bridges and OG. You can play up to 2 if full stacking this game. Both studs Jalen Brunson and Karl Anthony-Towns are also in play. Brunson’s going to have to work the mid-range which he’s very good at with Wemby’s rim protection, and KAT is relied on so much for rebounding on this team that his 3-point frequency isn’t awesome, as he’s only getting up 4.7 a game in December. It hasn’t hurt his ceiling though as he’s leading the league in rebounding and is at 16.2 per game this month. Brunson isn’t scoring as consistently this year, but he still erupts for 30+ at times, giving him an attractive ceiling. At only $3.8k on DK, Miles McBride makes an interesting value play there. He’s pretty consistent with his minutes, only getting cut below 20 once this month.
Up next, we’ve got the Minnesota Timberwolves visiting the Dallas Mavericks. There are a lot of center options, and Rudy Gobert sits about where he always does: He isn’t one of our favorites, but he has a nice ceiling when he gets to a double-double, and this matchup isn’t bad for him to rack up the rebounds. We want to like Anthony Edwards as this is a stage he probably will get hyped for…but man has he struggled. He’s down to 20.2 points a game in December and has hit 50+ fantasy points once. It’s hard to really recommend him here. Julius Randle has a bit more ceiling for his price, and while he’s not super exciting with nothing here sticking out for him, he’d be our preferred choice between the two main Minnesota guys. Our favorite options from the T-Wolves are the value, starting with Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Naz Reid, who’ve both had nice roles off the bench this month. On a slate without much obvious value, we don’t mind playing either one of them, as their price-considered ceilings make it worth it. Jaden McDaniels at only $4.2k on DK is our favorite value for the Wolves there, as his minutes ceiling is quite a bit higher than NAW or Reid. Lastly, Mike Conley is a solid cash game play, but tough for GPPs because of the lower ceiling he has, however can still be used in tournaments if needing to save salary. For the home team, it always starts with Luka Doncic. While he has been a bit banged up and missed some games, he’s been great when playing, scoring 70 or more fantasy points in five of his last seven. Minnesota has been great with the best defensive rating in December, but he is matchup-proof and can break any slate wide open. Daniel Gafford, on paper, looks to be the best of the two centers with his crazy FPPM, but neither he nor Dereck Lively are in a great spot against Gobert and the Minny defense. Regardless they are probably the next two Mavs we’d consider. There’s been just enough chaos with this roster the last couple of weeks that everyone else is priced a little too high for the current roles they carry.
The middle game of the day features the Philadelphia 76ers visiting the Boston Celtics. Not much for the visitors is great here, as they’ve been more a sum of their parts, as they get everyone healthy, rather than one guy carrying them. Caleb Martin should draw the start here, and while he’s unexciting, he is a steady presence where this slate is just small enough, he can be useful as a salary saver. Tyrese Maxey draws the biggest minutes projection of the slate, as he just hasn’t come off the floor this month, averaging 37.9 a game. His biggest ceiling has been when one of George or Embiid isn’t in, so while he’s intriguing at almost no ownership, be aware of that floor here. Joel Embiid is too expensive on FD, but he can be an interesting contrarian stud here on DK, as he got himself ejected after just 14 minutes in his last game, so he should be plenty rested for this marquee matchup. For Boston, Kristaps Porzingis has been back to full-go the last couple of weeks, and he is another solid center option. He isn’t shooting the ball great yet, but his low enough price paired with his 2.7 stocks a game are making up for that. Jayson Tatum is our favorite stud option for the Celtics, but he is questionable with his illness, as are Jrue Holiday and Derrick White. A lot can change if any of those three are ruled out, so this is a situation where if you want to try and take advantage of some late news, we can leave a lot of roster slots and salary available for the final three games, and see what ends up unfolding, but it’s going to be hard to pin down anything else from Boston before knowing their status.
Our two smallest spreads and highest totals reside in our last two games, the first of which has the Los Angeles Lakers visiting the Golden State Warriors. For the Lakers, LeBron James’ price has come down as he’s missed some time, and it looks like he’ll be quite popular. Those few extra hundred dollars can make all the difference to your lineup, and his ceiling isn’t much lower, evidenced by putting up 56+ fantasy points in his last two games. Austin Reaves hasn’t seen his price come back up to pre-injury levels, especially on DK where he’s $6.1k. He’s shooting the ball better, while averaging 5 assists and rebounds in December, where he looks to have regained his early season form but is now cheaper. He’s in play for both sites. Anthony Davis has a great matchup specifically on the boards, where he should feast against the Dubs, but their rim defense has been very good. Rui Hachimura could also be a beneficiary of the rebounding against Golden State, but his scoring numbers are not great as he’s struggled this month shooting the 3. He could be used if it helps save salary, but doesn’t need to be a priority. On the Warriors side, Trayce Jackson-Davis is drawing a lot of ownership in projections on FD due to his multi-positional eligibility. He is a pretty easy fade in GPPs on DK with so many centers we like at his ownership, but PF is not pretty on FD, so he can be used there to save some salary if needed, but don’t prioritize him. Dennis Schroder got up to 30 minutes last game as he gets acclimated to the Dubs, but he is still shooting the ball terribly since being acquired. The Lakers are terrible in transition defense and that is where Schroder really shines and could boost this Warriors team, so he is intriguing if that floor doesn’t scare you off. Steph Curry has had 2 pretty bad games in his last three, but the other game in there was 31 points against the T-Wolves, so we know he still has it in him. The Lakers don’t have anyone suited to stop him, and this is a nice spot for him to get going.
Our last game on Christmas has the Denver Nuggets visiting the Phoenix Suns. We’ve talked a lot about how deep the center position is on this slate, and Nikola Jokic is the best of the bunch. Phoenix doesn’t have the interior defense to deal with him in any way, shape or form. This is a great spot for him. Jamal Murray sat out their last game on a back-to-back but played 40+ minutes the night before, so should be good here. He continues to look stronger and stronger, and you can tell his confidence is back as his jumper is dropping at rates we’re used to. Aaron Gordon thrives in these matchups with no rim protection, and he’s a great option under $6k and is coming in at sub-10% ownership on both sites in projections. On the Phoenix side, a lot can change if Booker suddenly plays, but it is not looking very likely at this point. Kevin Durant is the leader of the pack without Booker, and he is leading the team in touch time without him. He only played 31 minutes when these teams squared off Monday and while he wasn’t great, this should be a nice bounce back spot as he isn’t the kind of player you can hold down over 8 quarters when he’s seeing the same defense. Bradley Beal led the team in shots that game, and will likely have to take a ton here again. He’s still shooting lights out from deep as well, at 40% from 3 for December. Tyus Jones did see only 23 minutes against Denver last time out, as Bud opted for more on-ball defense with Ryan Dunn. Jones isn’t a bad play and becomes a very good one if he gets 30 minutes, just be aware that the minutes might not be as secure as we’d hope. For Dunn, even if he gets a boatload of minutes, he doesn’t really do much fantasy-wise that makes us want to target him. Add Jusuf Nurkic to the list of center plays. He sticks out particularly on FD where he’s $100 cheaper, but he’s also a candidate to get cut down on minutes if they go more to the bench guys. Royce O’Neale looks to be safer on minutes, as he’s played at least 26 in every game this month. We like Gordon more, but he’s another mid range forward option that is usable. Good luck and Merry Christmas everyone!