Update 2: Drummond projects amazing when his minutes are calculated automatically, but the algorithms can’t understand his physical limitations. I dug back through his game logs and it has been YEARS since he played more than 23 minutes in a game. In games where he plays over 20 his +/- plummets as he just doesn’t have the endurance for it. I think he’s going to be overowned for how risky the minutes really are. He’s a PPM monster so he can definitely still smash in 20 minutes, but if the whole industry has him for around 30 then I think I may take the leverage and fade him. I’ll believe it when I see it that he’s physically capable of playing that much. He’d still project as a good play with 20 minutes, but he wouldn’t be worth eating the 80% ownership.
Update 1: Still waiting on ownership update but Drummond looks like he’s basically a lock tonight. It is difficult to project the back up center mins since Vuc hasn’t missed a game since 21-22 season. Our projections have Sanogo getting some backup run and not much change for Dalen Terry. Vuc OUT does also boost DDR and White who are elite plays in all formats. Williams and Caruso get bumps and are good cash plays as well
Optimal Plays: Banchero, DeRozan, C. White (DK), F. Wagner (FD), Vassell (FD), Sochan, P. Williams (DK), Nembhard
GPP Plays: Sabonis (DK), Sengun (FD), Vucevic (DK – Q), White (FD), F. Wagner (DK), Claxton (FD), Ayton (DK), Bog. Bogdanovic (DK), M. Wagner (FD), Branham (FD)
Top Game Stacks: ATL/CHI, SAS/UTA, HOU/IND
Pending Injury News: Young, Wembanyama, Leonard, Towns, Vucevic, Sharpe, Ayton, Jal. Williams, Jal. Johnson, Monk, M. Williams (D), B. Miller, Suggs, Smart, Hayes
First and foremost, we hope everyone (who celebrates) enjoyed a nice Christmas weekend! Today we follow up the festivities with a 9 DK/7 FD game slate to sink our teeth into. Unfortunately we have tons of pending injury news that could impact the direction we want to go so we will want to stay tuned into Discord for updates and remember, as always, to build with flexibility in mind as late swaps might be necessary this evening. As the slate stands, we have a few game stacks that stand out tonight so let’s dive in!
Atlanta vs Chicago
Starting in Chicago this game, featuring the Hawks and the Bulls, carries a nice 235.5 total with a 1.5 point spread. It also comes with two of the biggest pending injury news pieces on the slate.
The Hawks are led by their All-Star point guard Trae Young who is currently questionable tonight. The good news is, he was at shootaround this morning which suggests he could be trending toward playing. Young has been absolutely rolling over the last 7 games, having topped 59 DK/ 53 FD points each time, thanks in large part to averaging 33 points and 13 assists per game during that stretch. Chicago has been stout against guards this season so there is certainly more risk than usual but we know Young can pop off against anyone and he should come in unowned tonight, making him a solid GPP option when targeting this game. Given the tough matchup, Dejounte Murray doesn’t feel like a piece we need to get to tonight. While his floor has been decent, the ceiling just hasn’t popped off recently. Like Young, not many will be clicking his name tonight so if you do land on him as a last spot in and you are stacking this game, you could take the chance, but again not someone we would force into your builds. Clint Capela has been a frustrating fantasy target this season, as his minutes and production have been fairly volatile. This makes him the definition of a boom or bust target but like Murray, not someone we are forcing into builds tonight. The thing working in Capela’s favor is the matchup against the Bulls is elite, where they give up a 13% FPPM boost to opposing centers. Capela is definitely someone we would reserve only for large field GPP’s and when stacking this game. Bogdan Bogdanovic is another Hawk worth consideration tonight. Over his last 7 games, he has played around 34 MPG while averaging 39 DK/37 FD points per game and flashing a nice 53 + point ceiling. The Bulls have been vulnerable to scoring wings this season where Bogdo spends most of his time on the floor. His price is a little high on FD where we aren’t as interested, but on DK he looks like a solid option that can be used in this stack or a standalone tonight. The last thing worth noting for the Hawks is the pending return of Jalen Johnson this evening. He has missed the last 14 games with a wrist injury but was able to participate in shootaround this morning. If he suits up, it’s uncertain if he would reclaim his starting role and/or whether he would face a minutes restriction. If he starts and is not limited, He would be in consideration on both sites, however if he comes off the bench or faces any sort of restriction he will not be in play. If he missed altogether then we can look at a guy like Saddiq Bey as a final option for Hawks stacks, though he wouldn’t be a priority.
Moving over to the Bulls side, they will be without Zach LaVine yet again tonight and could also be missing Nikola Vucevic as well, who is currently questionable for this contest. If Vuc suits up, he makes for a solid choice on both sites tonight as the Hawks have really struggled defensively this season. Without LaVine on the floor, Vuc is second on the team in usage and could look to take advantage of his positive matchup this evening. Our next Bull in play tonight is DeMar DeRozan. With or without Vuc on the floor, DDR looks like a strong play tonight and grades out as our top Bull on both sites. As mentioned, Atlanta has struggled defensively all year and if this game is close down the stretch, it’s likely DeRozan will have the rock in hands often with his team leading 28% usage rate. He will be one of the more popular plays on the slate but for good reason and is a strong option in all formats. The third player that has really shined for Chicago this season is Coby White. White has cooled down some from his recent 9 game heater, still with LaVine off the floor he has seen a solid boost in usage and production this year. He is averaging around 43 FPPG with LaVine out of the lineup and tonight gets a Hawks team that ranks 5th in pace while also ranking 27th in defensive efficiency. Like DDR, he will be a somewhat popular option on this large slate, but one who is very much in consideration in all formats. Patrick Williams’ minutes have been really encouraging of late, having topped 30 in each of his last 9 starts but given his low FPPM production and projected ownership tonight, feels more like a play suited for cash builds and single entry GPPs. The same can be said about Alex Caruso, who’s minutes have not been as secure but his production has been strong when on the floor. He is projecting to see a decent amount of ownership this evening and think you are better off keeping in your cash/SE player pools only. The last two players worth mentioning for the Bulls are Andre Drummond and Dalen Terry. If Vuc were to miss tonight we would have interest in both players. The assumption is Drummond would start but still the minutes would be uncertain. Regardless, in a starting role Drummond would be a strong play in an elite matchup. He averages close to 1.35 FPPM and while he hasn’t played a game without Vuc yet, we know he can do damage even in limited run. Dalen Terry, would also be in play for the fact that he is priced near the minimum on both sites and currently projected for 17 minutes. If Vuc sits, we could expect that number to increase by a couple minutes and thus he would be a viable source of salary relief on a slate that lacks anything strong currently.
San Antonio vs Utah
This matchup has the highest total of the slate at an over/under of 241.5 and a 3.5 point spread. We’ve got some pending injury news with Wemby which would drastically shift things if he ends being ruled out. We’re currently projecting for him to play, but we’ll certainly keep you updated if that changes.
For the Spurs, Wembanyama makes for an interesting GPP stack piece as he’ll likely be low owned and has a game environment that presents massive upside. Jeremy Sochan and Devin Vassell rate out as the top two guys on both DraftKings and FanDuel and should carry healthy ownership on both sites. Vassell is $600 cheaper on FD making him our favorite of the Spurs over there. With Wemby in, we like a stack of Sochan, Vassell (especially on FD), and Wembanyama. Sochan can be used in cash games on both sites, Vassell can be used in cash on FD, and Wemby is best reserved for GPPs.
Next we have Utah’s side of the stack. The Jazz get a great matchup here with a Spurs team that likes to play fast and doesn’t like to play defense. This part of the stack is best for primarily a game stack or deep GPPs as Jazz players will be very low owned on this slate. Markkanen, Clarkson, and Kessler rate out the best for us in that order. On DK all three of them will be at less than 5% making them great GPP pieces for your game stack. On FD Markkanen should be around 15-20%, Clarkson will be under 10%, and Kessler will likely be sub 5%.
Houston vs Indiana
This game has the second highest total of the slate at 238.5 points with a spread of 3.5. This game should be high paced with little to no defense.
The Pacers are looking to get back into the win column as they’ve lost two straight. Andrew Nembhard is the best play on both sites as he offers some salary relief and should see 30+ minutes. He’ll see 40% in ownership on both sites, so he’s viable for cash contests and GPPs. He rates as the top PT/$ play on FanDuel and 4th on DraftKings. Buddy Hield is the next guy we like in this stack as he’s just over $6K on both sites. He should see ownership around 15-25% between both DK and FD. Next we have Tyrese Haliburton who is coming off of a 60+ fantasy point performance in his last outing. Haliburton has had a breakout year and as he’s averaging over 24 points and over 12 assists per game. Haliburton possesses massive upside as he’s gone for over 60 fantasy points on six occasions since mid November. On this slate he’ll likely be below 5% on both sites. The last couple of weeks the floor has been unsteady for him as he’s gone below 50 fantasy points in 7 of his last 10 games with those 3 occasions being 60+ fantasy point outbursts. At sub 5% the risk may be worth the upside, especially in the context of a game stack. Jalen Smith is a viable game stack piece if you really need salary relief. It’s a volatile play as his minutes have fluctuated greatly. He has posted above 15 fantasy points in five straight games, so it’s worth noting him as an option.
Houston is coming into this matchup having won two straight games. This team has looked solid so far as they currently have a winning record and have shown some promise. Alperen Sengun is the first one we’ll mention here as he’s rating out really well for us in the projections. He’s coming off of a massive performance in which he went for 60+ fantasy points against the Pelicans. Considering the tight spread and high total, this might be another opportunity for a ceiling game for Sengun. His floor has been unsettling as of late, but there’s no denying the upside at sub 9K especially with lower ownership than usual. He’s projecting for less than 10% on both sites which makes him a great GPP play. Next we have Fred VanVleet who is seeing massive minutes. He’s seen at least 39 minutes in 5 of the last 7 non-blowout games and has had two ceiling performances in those five games. He’s done for 60+ fantasy points in 2 of his last 4 games. Ownership will likely be low due to the two back to back duds we’ve seen, but this is a good opportunity for us to jump back in at low ownership. I could see a ceiling game here for FVV with this game environment. Jabari Smith and Jalen Green are noteworthy mentions if you’re needing other stack options, but we would prioritize getting Sengun and VanVleet in your Rockets stacks.
Conclusion: Santa dropped some coal in the NBA DFS stockings this year as our first slate post the holidays is littered with pending injury news, all of which could alter the direction we are steered in tonight. The three matchups we like targeting the most this evening are between ATL/CHI, SAS/UTA and HOU/IND. Make sure to stay close to Discord as the updates could be flowing like eggnog this evening.