Optimal Plays: Durant, Jackson Jr., Bane, Pippen, Wells, Konchar, Kennard
GPP Plays: James (Q), Zubac, Sochan (FD), Vassell, Divincenzo (DK), Plumlee, Huff
Pending Injury News: James, Booker
Happy New Year to our RGP faithful! We have our final NBA slate of 2024 on our hands tonight featuring 4 games that, on paper, look like they should be fairly competitive. We have a couple of key pending injury pieces to monitor, otherwise, as it stands there is a pretty clear direction in front of us. With that said, let’s dive in!
Our first game this evening, sees the Los Angeles Clippers, traveling east to take on the San Antonio Spurs in a matchup that one would describe as mediocre for fantasy purposes. Both teams average middle of the pack in pace and offensive efficiency, while also being above average defensively. Still both teams are in play today where ownerships from this game are geared toward tournament lineups.
The Clippers continue to be without Kawhi Leonard which has led to a career season thus far for Norman Powell. Powell is averaging around 35 FPPG and has topped that number in each of the last 6 games. He is second in the team in usage and continues to log heavy minutes. While this is the second game of a back to back for the Clippers, Powell should continue to have a secure role and is a great option in all formats. Perhaps equally as impressive this year has been Ivica Zubac, who is also enjoying a career year, topping his averages in points, rebounds and assists, en route to averaging 38 FPPG. Over the last 6 games, Zubac has been a machine, averaging 48 FPPG. The matchup is average as he’ll have to deal with Wemby, still he remains heavily involved on both ends of the floor and deserves a look in tournament lineups today. James Harden has surprisingly taken a bit of a back seat to both Powell and Zubac in terms of fantasy production of late. His minutes are secure and we know he has 60+ FP upside, still he isn’t a priority on this slate and would reserve rostering him only when overstacking this game. Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr. are slightly overpriced on FD but look like solid value pieces on DK where they have topped 20 FPs in each of the last 3 games.
For the Spurs, that matchup with the Clippers will be challenging, as they have been tough defensively all year, ranking 5th in efficiency. Devin Vassell checks in as our top graded Spur overall, and is coming off back to back solid outings. He is in play for GPPs today but would be mindful of the tough matchup. Keldon Johnson is priced way down on DK, where he is in play for value. Victor Wembanyama, Chris Paul and Jeremy Sochan round out our Spurs targets. None of them stand out as must plays, but each has showcased a big enough ceiling at their respective price points that you could look their way if targeting a game stack here.
The next game on the slate will see the Minnesota Timberwolves travel to OKC to take on the Western Conference leading Thunder. This game could be a slog fest, as both teams rank in the top 5 in defensive efficiency. While they haven’t played yet this season, 3 of the 4 matchups last year were low scoring affairs.
The Timberwolves have been a frustrating team to pin down this season. As it stands, Naz Reid and Rudy Gobert are the only players we have much interest in on both sites. As the resident Twolves fan on the team, I am never a huge fan of Gobert, still his price and ownership keep him in the mix for large field GPPs. Naz Reid feels like someone who should be playing more minutes, yet remains capped around 25 per game. He has the ability to stretch the floor on the Thunder and could benefit from any foul trouble that Gobert or Randle might find themselves in. Finally, on DK, Donte DiVincenzo and Jaden McDaniels are in play for value. Donte has finally found a little rhythm and is coming off back to back 41+ point performances. Expectations should be tempered some for this tough matchup, still he is priced down enough where targeting his heater is a viable strategy. McDaniels has been fairly inconsistent this season, but has flashed signs of upside on multiple occasions, including 3, 30+ FP outings in his last 8 games. While not someone we are forcing into our lines, he is in play as a lower owned GPP value target.
On the Thunder side of the ball, things don’t look much better, as they will also be faced with a tough defensive matchup this evening. Cason Wallace looks to be the only piece we have much interest in for value, even then it’s limited. The stud trio of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Isaiah Hartenstein aren’t grading out too well but, given the concentration of usage and production around these 3, are in play if you wanted to overstack this game, something we’d only recommend in large field GPPs.
Our third game this evening, features the second highest total on the slate where the L.A. Lakers will host the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs are coming off a convincing win over the Warriors last night and have now won 7 straight games on the backs of their league leading offensive efficiency, while also being stout on the defensive end.
While the Cavs are a fantastic basketball team, they are a tricky squad to target for fantasy purposes. On any given night Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Darius Garland and/or Jarrett Allen can go for 50+ fantasy points and yet it’s rare to see more than 1 or 2 of them reach a ceiling performance in the same night. Given their current price tags, no player stands out tonight, but in what could be a sneaky high scoring game, you could make a case to stack one or two of them and run it back with a Laker or two. If you choose to go this route, given that they all project similarly, we would recommend building the rest of your lineup first and then plugging in the player(s) that round out your roster the best.
The biggest piece of news we are waiting for in this game is the status of Lebron James who is currently questionable with an illness. If he suits up, he looks like a strong pay up option today, where his ownership should remain reasonable given his uncertainty and late start time. With DLo traded away, James could be relied on to handle the ball more and we know he stuffs the stat sheet regardless. If James were to miss, Anthony Davis would jump into the mix as a top spend up target, where we have seen him top 60 FP in 2 of the 3 games sans Lebron already this year. The tricky part will potentially be not getting this news until after slate lock, so if targeting this game, make sure to leave some flexibility for late swaps. If Bron plays, we aren’t particularly interested in anyone else but should he be ruled out then guys like Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura would jump into the mix and both see a nice bump in usage and opportunity. The rest of the players might be tough to trust given the shake up in roster recently, but make sure to check projection updates for any changes, if news drops.
Our final game this evening will certainly be the most optimal one, where the Memphis Grizzlies will visit the Phoenix Suns, featuring a slate high 235.5 total and two teams with shorthanded rosters. Both teams rank in the top 10 in offensive efficiency and this is a nice pace up spot for the Suns as Memphis runs with the most tempo in the league.
For the Suns, the big question mark is whether or not Devin Booker will make his return this evening. As of now, we have him projected to play, which if he does, we wouldn’t have much interest in him, given his price point. If he were to miss, it would be a nice boost to all the Suns players that we are targeting tonight. Regardless of Booker’s status, Mason Plumlee grades out as our top Phoenix player with Jusuf Nurkic set to miss again. Plumlee should start and see around 25 minutes, where he put up 25 FP in a similar situation last time out. His C only eligibility, should keep his ownership in check and he looks like a strong value play on both sites. Kevin Durant looks to be a popular spend up choice today, where he should benefit from this fast-paced environment, and in an excellent matchup against the Grizzlies who struggle defending Power Forwards. Raw points are always important on smaller slates and KD projects as the 4th highest scorer tonight, while his salary is significantly cheaper than the 3 players projected above him. He is a strong stud target today and would receive a bigger boost if Booker were to sit. Bradley Beal has flashed some upside games, but we would only be interested in him tonight if Booker were to sit. Tyus Jones continues to struggle with consistency, surrounded by all these high usage players, still he has showcased 7x potential on multiple occasions and will also benefit from this up-tempo matchup.
Our final team tonight is the Memphis Grizzlies and they will be without half of their team basically, including starters, Ja Morant, Zach Edey and Marcus Smart. With that said, almost all the Grizzlies are in play this evening as they grade out as the optimal team to target on this slate, where playing up to 4-5 is not of the question given their price points and upside. Jaren Jackson can be a scary click sometimes, especially when paired with a lot of ownership, still he carries a team high usage and production rate into a matchup where the Suns rank dead last against Power Forwards. It may be worth waiting to see what the Grizzlies roll out for a starting lineup as it’s possible he shifts over to Center, still he has 50+ point upside in what should be a high scoring affair. Desmond Bane checks in right behind JJJ in terms of usage and production and historically has been very effective with Morant off the floor. His minutes have been capped so far this season but have been trending up in competitive games of late and he should see a bump with the shorthanded roster today. Scottie Pippen grades out as our top PT/$ Memphis player tonight and the top overall target on the slate. While you can always make a case to fade big ownerships, Pippen is about as close to a lock on this slate as you can have. He is averaging 1.16 FPPM with Ja off the floor and should see 30+ minutes, making him tough to get away from on this small slate. The trio of Jaylen Wells, John Konchar and Luke Kennard are all in play for value today. While Wells and Konchar have the safer minutes, Kennard is the more active player when he’s on the floor. Finally, Jay Huff might not reach 20 minutes, but he is the most productive of the value pieces when he’s on the floor, averaging around 1.13 FPPM. If he lucks into a few extra minutes, he could be a low owned smash, and even so, he is a nice GPP target when looking to differentiate some off the chalky Grizzlies. Best of luck tonight and stay safe while ringing in the New Year!