Optimal Plays: Durant (FD), Barnes, D. Murray (DK), J. Williams (DK), Mobley, Vassell (FD), Quickley (FD), Garland, Ty. Jones, Podziemski (FD), Gordon (FD), Coulibaly (DK), O’Neale, Goodwin (FD), Eubanks
GPP Plays: Davis (FD-Q), Gilgeous-Alexander, Wembanyama (FD), James (FD), Young, Holmgren, Kuzma, Avdija, Poeltl, Trent Jr
Top Game Stacks: TOR/ATL, WAS/OKC, SAS/LAL (FD)
Pending Injury News: Mitchell, Ingram, Williamson, Herro, Barrett, J. Walker (FD), Batum, Caldwell-Pope (FD)
Welcome to another Friday night in the NBA where the two sites have decided to go bonkers and deviate the slate size from one another entirely. DK has a six-game slate and omitted the four late games while FD decided to throw all ten together on one slate. As a result, strategy between the two sites will differ and we will do our best to break it all down for you as always! What is very interesting about this slate is that there are a TON of games just sitting in the mediocre 220s range outside of the ones we are honing in on, with a couple even trending below 220.
Before diving into our game stacks tonight, we did want to call out a couple of the spots projected for higher ownership that we felt should get some attention. Starting on DraftKings, it does appear like a number of the Cavs will be pretty highly owned tonight in their matchup with the primary culprits of Evan Mobley, Darius Garland, and Jarrett Allen leading the charge, all projected for 20%+ ownership currently. Both Cleveland and Philly are playing the second half of a back-to-back this evening and this game holds a decent total of 229 and a 4.5-point spread. The big decision that will have to be made here centers on the status of a particular Spida, Donovan Mitchell. He holds the keys to a ton of how this slate plays out as these Cavs are projecting well, even with Mitchell projected to play. If Mitchell does play, we think that you can probably feel just fine avoiding this spot as their projections are accurate but it would substantially harm their ultimate ceilings. If he does not play, it will be a much tougher spot to feel great about avoiding. Staying close to Discord in the lead-up to lock will be of paramount importance as a result.
On FD, there are a few value options that are projected for heavy ownership that will need to be decided upon. Two of them come from the Phoenix Suns in Eric Gordon and Drew Eubanks. With Bradley Beal expected to miss tonight’s game again, Gordon should get the start. He played 35 minutes last night and is priced below $5k, making him a very solid value option to consider. He doesn’t have the highest ceiling in the world at this point but should be a safe option with his workload. Eubanks should be pressed into a higher workload as Jusuf Nurkic is currently doubtful for tonight’s contest. However, his minutes are not set in stone as we have seen them fluctuate in this spot in the past. Guys like Azubuike and Bol Bol easily could vulture minutes from him and harm his upside. He is a solid option to be clear, but is not as safe as he may appear at face value. The last man to call out on FD is Jordan Goodwin. Ever since he arrived in Memphis, Goodwin has been quite solid. He has seen 24 and 29 minutes over their last two games, scoring 24.1 and 27.9 FanDuel points over those contests. He is priced a full $1k cheaper on FD than on DK, making him one of our favorite value plays on the site.
TOR/ATL
The game between the Raptors and Hawks is the one that is projected to draw the most ownership, and thus is the most optimal to stack. This is a prime spot for both teams to go bonkers offensively as Atlanta ranks third in pace and 29th in defensive rating while Toronto has also been horrid defensively since trading Anunoby and Siakam. As a result, Toronto has a team total that is 5.6 points higher than their average while the Hawks have one that is 4.5 points above their average. There are not many injury concerns for either team with RJ Barrett the only player listed as questionable for this one. It does look like the majority of the ownership for this game is going to flow through on the Toronto side of things. Scottie Barnes is their main man and he has a PRIME matchup tonight as Atlanta ranks 29th in DvP against SFs on the season. He has scored 45+ fantasy points in four of his last five games and is an excellent option in optimal formats tonight. He does have a rather low floor as he scored less than 40 fantasy points in three of his prior five before that. That should give you some comfort in your ability to fade him in GPP formats if you want to dodge his ownership. Immanuel Quickley is also projected to draw solid ownership, particularly so on FD where he is projected to carry the most ownership on the entire slate. The Hawks struggle to defend point guards, ranking 23rd in DvP against them. However, this is a spot that does not make all that much sense to us. Quickley really has not flashed any kind of ceiling at his current price point, eclipsing 40 fantasy points three times in his last fifteen games and maxing out at 44.5. We would rather dodge his ownership here. Jakob Poeltl looks like a solid option in the center position as the Hawks have been quite poor defensively against centers, ranking 28th in DvP against them. Clint Capela will be back tonight and will be operating on a harsh minutes restriction meaning that Poeltl still should get a solid number of minutes against Fernando. He is usable in both formats on both sites at around 15% projected ownership. The last Raptor to consider is Gary Trent, Jr. who looks like a terrific value option on both sites at sub-$5k price tags. He is more so of a GPP option as he is quite scoring dependent but he has played 30+ minutes in back-to-back games and should be in line for nearly that many again tonight.
On the other side, Dejounte Murray is far too cheap on DK in particular where he is just $7.5k. He has not scored fewer than 32 fantasy points in his past 14 games, making him one of our favorite plays on the entire slate. And lastly, Trae Young continues to go under-owned. He is projected for sub-10% ownership on both sites and this is a spot where he should excel against a player like Quickley who is not interested in playing defense. Before their blowout win over Charlotte the last time out, he had scored 40+ fantasy points in nine consecutive games. We love him in GPPs as a result.
WAS/OKC
This game is the definition of GPP. We have the second highest projected game total of the night at 242.5, aided by Washington ranking first in the league in Pace and 27th in Defensive Efficiency along with OKC ranking 3rd in Offensive Efficiency. This formula adds up to a potential for a lot of points and fantasy production. The caveat is that it currently carries a 16.5 point spread, which means we also have a high blowout risk. With that said, should this game stay competitive, there are some really solid lower owned pieces we can attack.
Starting on the Washington side. They will have a tough matchup as OKC has been strong defensively still Kyle Kuzma has been a usage monster all year soaking up around 30% and already put up a good effort against OKC a month ago topping 46 fantasy points. Kuz isn’t afraid to chuck the rock either and is coming off a 25 shot outing last time out where he hung up almost 60 fantasy points. His price has dropped to the mid $7K range and his ownership should stay in check making him a nice GPP target in this stack as the Wizards will need a productive night from Kuzma if they wanna keep this game close. Tyus Jones has arguably been the most consistent player for Washington of late having topped 33 fantasy points in each of his last 6 games and went for 38 against OKC in their previous outing. On DK he is projected to carry some big ownership which is always a little concerning with such a large spread but on FD he looks like another solid GPP target. Deni Avdija came back down to earth last game but prior to that was on a mini heater, averaging 51 DK/47 FD over his last 4 games before the All Star break and that stretch included a 71 DK/65 FD outburst against the Pelicans. Deni has shown a nice ceiling in competitive games this season and despite the tough matchup this evening, he’s worth a look in GPP stacks hoping that the Wizards can keep this game close. Bilal Coulibaly moved into the starting lineup last game but wasn’t overly impressive. Still if he starts again in this game, he should see around 31 minutes and is priced at a nice value point on this slate. The caution again is that he is projected to be fairly chalky but he did play regular minutes until about 4 minutes left in a blowout last night so his minutes may be safe regardless of the score. Marvin Bagley’s production has been somewhat up and down during his short time with the Wizards, still he’s averaging close to 1.18 FPPM over his first 12 games and the question mark is always his minutes. OKC has given up 1.20 FPPM to opposing centers over their last 10 games and if Bagley can stay on the floor he could have a chance to chase that nice 48 point ceiling he has already showcased in the Wizards uniform. He’s another high risk, high upside play that we can consider only if stacking this game.
Over on the Thunder side of the ball, they have arguably the best matchup of the evening. As mentioned, Washington plays at a lightning fast pace while refusing to defend anyone. Starting at the top, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has slate topping potential tonight in terms of fantasy production. Washington has given up the most points, rebounds and assists in the league this year and SGA excels in all three categories. The big risk is the blowout but if somehow this game stays tight SGA should feast in this matchup and even if this game gets out of hand he can do damage in just 3 quarters. Jalen Williams looks like he will be a popular play tonight and for good reason. See the above mention about Washington giving up the most PRA in the league this year. Williams is averaging 24/6/4 in February and it’s possible his ownership could come down if people are worried about the outcome. Chet Holmgren continues to have a monster rookie season and now gets a Wizards team who ranks dead last defensively against opposing centers and one that he hung nearly a 50 spot on back in January. His ownership should be reasonable on both sites this evening making him another strong GPP target in this game. Lu Dort is the last player worth mentioning for OKC. He has now topped 30 minutes in 5 of his last 6 games while exceeding 33 fantasy points in 3 of those contests. He is priced cheap enough that rostering him allows some additional flexibility but we don’t think you need to prioritize him in this stack as he is a low usage guy and the aforementioned blowout risk looming.
SAS/LAL (FD)
This game is only on the FanDuel slate this evening but carries the third highest projected total on the board at 240.5 and their two previous outings this season topped 241 points. Both teams push the pace ranking inside the top 6 and neither particularly excel at defense, meaning we could see another high scoring affair between them.
For the Spurs, all the attention is centered around their rookie phenom, Victor Wembanyama. Wemby torched the Lakers in his first ever matchup, going for 70 FD points and is fresh off another 70 point outing last night in his first action since the All Star Break. He is averaging an insane 3.2 blocks per game this season and has 8 in his two matchups against LA. He is projected for sub 10% ownership tonight making him a strong GPP option with his minutes now fully unrestricted. Devin Vassell has been really solid in the month of February averaging around 37 FD points and torched the Lakers in their last matchup to the tune of 53 FD points. The Lakers rank 28th in DvP against SGs and despite Vassell looking like he will be popular on this slate, he is a solid option in all formats. Jeremy Sochan is projected to be moderately owned yet he hasn’t really flashed that exciting of a ceiling of late. He feels like a better play in cash games but is viable as a last piece in when stacking this game. Tre Jones, like Sochan, has been a bit up and down with his production of late. The Lakers have provided a 15% assist boost over their last 10 games which does add some additional appeal here but still we wouldn’t prioritize him in this stack. Instead, he is better suited as a final spot in or if you need his price discount off the more expensive pieces, to make the rest of your build work.
For the Lakers, Anthony Davis is currently questionable coming into the second leg of a back to back. If he suits up, he is certainly in play as a high ceiling stud option and the Spurs have struggled over the last 10 games against centers, giving up around 1.21 FPPM. Lebron James is set to return after sitting out last night. Bron leads the Lakers in usage but his fantasy production has been held somewhat in check of late, where he has only topped 50 Fantasy points once in his last 17 games. Still the Lakers need to start missing games to make up ground in the standings and if AD were to miss it would be a significant boost to his outlook. Projected to be virtually unowned on this slate, Bron makes for a solid GPP play in this stack. Bron’s lighter production could be in large part to the play of D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves. Both the Lakers’ guards have been playing really well over the last month and change contributing to a balanced attack overall for LA. The Spurs have struggled defensively against guards this season and neither player is projected for over 4% ownership in this one. If this game stays competitive both carry high upside appeal putting them squarely in the mix when stacking this game. Our last Laker is Rui Hachimura. His minutes have increased significantly since entering the starting lineup where he is consistently over 30 per game but his production has been a mixed bag. Still he has showcased 40+ point upside and is another player who shouldn’t carry any ownership tonight. He isn’t a priority when targeting this game but his reduced salary can allow you to get to some of the other studs in this matchup.