NBA Optimal Plays: Wembanyama (DK), Markkanen (FD), D. Murray, Simons (DK), Sexton (FD), J. Collins (FD), Vassell, Bog. Bogdanovic (DK), Sochan (DK), K. George, Hawkins, Hendricks
GPP Plays: Gilgeous-Alexander, Sabonis, Harden, Leonard, Sengun, Wembanyama (FD), Markkanen (DK), Monk, Dort
Top Game Stacks: UTA/SA (Optimal), SAC/LAC (GPP), OKC/HOU (GPP)
Pending Injury News: Williamson, Ingram, J. Murray, George, Powell, Caldwell-Pope
This Sunday’s seven-game slate brings with it a cloud of primary injury spots to monitor in addition to some juicy spots to target in GPP formats. As always with Sundays in the Association, there are sure to be unexpected injuries popping up throughout the day thanks to the state of Sunday NBA, so staying close to Discord will be of the utmost importance as it always seems to be!
Before diving into tonight’s clear optimal game stack, we wanted to address the injury situations that are currently known that will drive ownership towards some great options to consider. The first spot that will need to be discussed is that Trae Young will miss tonight’s game against the Orlando Magic. There are only two options seriously worth discussing in this spot against a staunch defensive opponent like the Magic. The first of them is Dejounte Murray who is priced very modestly on both sites given the role he will play for the Hawks. With Young off the court, his usage soars to over 28%, a team-high. He also scores over seven fantasy points more per game. He has now scored 50+ fantasy points in two of his last four games with Young on the court. Fading him will be a very risky proposition in this spot as a result, especially given the high degree of ownership he is expected to see. The matchup does give you an out if you want to take that chance as Orlando has been brutal to target with any degree of consistency this season. The other option from the Hawks is the player that should slide into the starting lineup in place of Young, Bogdan Bogdanovic. Bogy is a much better option on DK where he is priced at just $5.5k, $800 cheaper than on FD. That is exacerbated by the fact that his ownership is not projected to be materially higher on the site despite the cheaper price point. The reality of the situation here for him is that he will play a ton of minutes in this spot as he has averaged 35 per game over five prior games Trae has missed this season. That has not tracked from a fantasy perspective though as he has scored between 22-27 fantasy points in four of the five games. He should be very safe, but the ceiling just has not been there for him in this spot this year. We would certainly play him in optimal lineups, but with the matchup in mind, you can look elsewhere in GPPs.
The second spot to hone in on tonight is the New Orleans Pelicans who will be facing off with the Chicago Bulls in yet another game with a pretty low total (222 points currently). The issue here is that the Pels are absurdly beat up due to injuries right now. CJ McCollum will miss tonight’s game while both Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram are currently listed as questionable. Zion has been questionable in each of their last two games before ultimately playing. Ingram has been battling an illness and has missed each of their last two games. He was present at this morning’s shootaround which does bode well for his availability. However, he may be limited if he does play. We also just received news that both Jose Alvarado and Naji Marshall will be suspended for tonight’s game after the brawl that took place against the Heat in their last game. The Pels as a whole are underpriced on DraftKings and more expensive on FanDuel. The primary beneficiary of this chaos will be Jordan Hawkins. He is priced at a meager $4.2k on DK and is projected to see nearly 27 minutes with upside for more in the absence of two of the primary ball handlers for the Pels. He is one of the better value options on the slate now on the site. On FD, he is priced up at $5.4k and is not as much of a priority. Other options for the Pels that look solid on DK include Trey Murphy III and Herbert Jones who both are cheaper on DK in this spot. With Jones priced over $6k on FD, he is a bit too expensive for our liking there. We need to see how lineups shake out before addressing this situation further, just start with Hawkins for now and stay tuned.
The top optimal game to stack tonight will take place between the San Antonio Spurs and the Utah Jazz. Starting with the Jazz, they have a phenomenal seven players projected for 5.3 point per dollar value or greater on DK and five of 5.0 or greater on FD, which makes them an extremely tough spot to avoid. The primary reason for that is that the Spurs rank 4th in pace and 23rd in defensive rating on the season. One of their top beat reporters came out with a tweet within the past couple of days basically saying that there was going to be a lot of experimentation with their lineup and that the only person with guaranteed minutes moving forward would be Lauri Markkanen. That is important to note as we dive into this spot. The top value option on the slate on both sites is easily Taylor Hendricks who is priced at $3.7k on DK and $4.3k on FD. Hendricks was inserted into the starting lineup last time out and played 26 minutes, dropping 25.3 fantasy points in the process. He is projected for nearly 27 minutes this evening and is a spot where you should most likely not fade him in this spot. Keyonte George is not priced as a value play but still grades out as one of the best values on the slate, particularly on DK where he is just $5.3k. The Spurs rank dead last in DvP against point guards this season and George has averaged 38.0 fantasy points per game over the last three. In this spot, you should definitely start your lineups with both of them on DK and just Hendricks on FD. On FD, Lauri Markkanen is extremely underpriced at just $7.9k and he will be very highly owned as a result. On DK, he is a very solid GPP option at lower ownership and just $300 more expensive. Outside of these three, the trio of John Collins, Collin Sexton, and Jordan Clarkson are all really tough nuts to crack given the worry about their rotation. They would be the trio most likely to be impacted if the Jazz decide to just give more run to their youngsters which it sounds like they may. The three of them will carry significant ownership on both sites. With the uncertainty, we would most likely look elsewhere in GPPs and play them in cash games.
On the other side of this one, the Spurs also have a great matchup as their team total is 4.9 points above their season average in this spot. One of our favorite plays on the entire slate is Victor Wembanyama who will be highly owned on DK where he is a wild $2.0k cheaper than he is on FD. The minutes limit is gone and he has been unleashed, averaging 61 fantasy points over his last three games. The matchup is impeccable as the Jazz rank 28th in DvP against centers this season. He’s even talked about how the minutes limit coming off makes him feel like he can play more freely, and it’s showing in the results. We think he is an auto-lock at his DK price and is an amazing GPP play on FD at 6% projected ownership. Jeremy Sochan is far too cheap on DK as well where he is a full $1.0k cheaper than he is on FD. He has played 36 and 34 minutes over his last two games, scoring no fewer than 32.5 fantasy points. He will be highly owned but is another strong option in this spot. After these two, we get to Devin Vassell who has been great of late, averaging 21.6 points per game in the month of February while scoring 1.05 fantasy points per minute. He is a great optimal play at elevated ownership in this spot. However, his ceiling maxes out around 41-42 points so he is unlikely to torpedo you if you do fade him in GPPs for more upside. The last option to consider from the Spurs is Tre Jones. He really is in the same boat as Vassell as somebody who does not really have a ceiling to kill you. He should be safe in a good matchup but we would once again rather search for higher upside.
One game that is not attracting nearly as much attention as we’d expect is between the Houston Rockets and the Oklahoma City Thunder. It currently sits with a healthy 233.5 total, and no one on DK is projecting for over 10% ownership, with only two players doing so on FD. For Houston, Fred Van Vleet looked his old self last game out. He played 37 minutes, so appears to be back to his usual workload after missing time from injury. He is priced at one of his lowest points of the year, sitting at $6.9k on DK and $7.8k on FD. Alperen Sengun will be in a good spot, even if the matchup is pretty neutral for centers against OKC. This should be a faster-paced game, and is excellent for his skillset, as he hits his ceiling when being able to rack up the peripheral stats. He will look to hit the offensive glass hard against an OKC team that’s 29th in defensive rebounding percentage. Amen Thompson is priced a bit too high to play on FD, carrying a crazy $8k price tag, but is still at a manageable $6.4k on DK. He closed the last game instead of Brooks, and has seen 28 and 33 minutes in the two games since Van Vleet has returned. While in extended minutes, he is still performing at a great FPPM rate: 1.26 in those two games. When he is projected for 5% ownership, this is a spot we like shooting at that ceiling. Looking at someone who is more preferred on FD than DK, Jabari Smith is in a favorable matchup. With OKC’s subpar rebound rate, and their only big guy in Holmgren being locked up with Sengun, this is a great spot for him to rack up some rebounds. For Oklahoma City, a lot of their interest congregates around their big 3, but everything still starts with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He continues to be on a huge run, scoring at least 30 points with at least 5 assists in his last four games. Last time out against Houston, he had a game in that range with 33 points, 6 assists, and added 6 steals. He has top score of the slate potential. Chet Holmgren is preferred on FD, where his block upside can be taken advantage of. He’s also coming off two straight double-doubles, and he’ll be busy on the boards today against Houston’s size. Jalen Wiliams is the more preferred play on DK, as he’s been shooting 3-pointers more often in February, averaging 4.2 attempts a game, and has hit multiple in four of his last six games. Even though Williams and Holmgren are more preferred to one site, they are in play on both. Lu Dort has seen 30 or more minutes in five of his last seven games, and the other two were both blowouts. He is someone who can be considered as a cheaper piece in GPPs, as he’s shown upside for 30 fantasy points when getting his full minutes.
The last game of the night features two teams in the heat of the fight for playoff position in the Western Conference, with the Sacramento Kings visiting the LA Clippers. This is a matchup of two good offensive teams, giving us a 239-point total, and also teams that tend to have their fantasy scoring condense around a few players, which can be great for game stacking. For the Clippers, we want to point out that Paul George showed up late on the injury report. He’s questionable with knee soreness. If he misses, this makes it the Kawhi Leonard and James Harden show. Harden gets the biggest bump without George, getting a +4.3% bump in his usage rate, and averages 6 more DK points a game without him. Leonard also sees a bump, although not as big since he has more usage when Geroge is in than Harden, with his bump being +1.6%. If George plays, we would not play more than two of these three in the same lineup, but any of them are viable. Ivica Zubac has 27 or more minutes in each of his last three games and has posted a double-double in each game. If you are playing a center in this game, it’s most likely the guy on the other team, but Zubac is coming in under 10% projected ownership on both sites and can be a way to differentiate at that position. Speaking of the Kings center, Domantas Sabonis is that guy. He still seems to be on the All-Star snub express, having scored no less than 50 DK points in his last seven games while going for a triple-double in four of his last five. Needless to say, he is a prime option for tonight, especially coming in at under 15% projected ownership on both sites. De’Aaron Fox has also been on a tear. In his last 3 games, he has scored no less than 53 fantasy points, while having no less than 6 assists. This should be a game played at a higher tempo, which would benefit his style and recent uptick in play. Malik Monk is a streaky player, and for February, he is on a hot streak. He’s averaged 20.4 points this month, and while he’s carrying a modest ownership projection on DK, on FD it is 2.4%, and he could be a good midrange differentiator.