Optimal Plays: Butler, Adebayo, Williamson (FD), Holmgren (DK), DiVincenzo (FD), Rozier, Schroder (DK), Lowry (FD), Ca. Martin, Okoro (DK), Niang (DK), Merrill, Fernando (FD)
GPP Plays: Sabonis, Sengun, Fox, Allen, Kuzma, VanVleet, Garland, Avdija, LeVert, Poole, Holmes (DK)
Top Game Stacks: MIA/WAS (Optimal), CLE (Optimal, no run-back needed), HOU/SAC (GPP)
Pending Injury News: Williams Jr, Suggs, Kennard, G. Jackson, Holmes, Fultz
We have a very interesting Sunday slate on our hands without a ton in the way of big injury news we are waiting upon which is unusual for a Sunday in the Association. Tonight brings us a seven-game slate that features a number of potential spots to target. Totals are pretty condensed in roughly the 220-230 range in this spot which makes discerning the best ones of the utmost importance. We are excited about this one and hopefully you are as well!
The clear optimal game ownership-wise this evening is shaping up to be the Miami/Washington affair. Like most Wizards games these days, people are simply flocking to their opponent due to how miserable they have been on the defensive end of the court. Four of the top five owned players on DK and four of the top six on FD all come from the Miami side of this one. The game features a 228.5-point total with the Heat installed as 11-point favorites, pointing to the fact there could be some blowout risk in this spot. With that being said, they still have a massive 120-point team total so some players will have to do the scoring for certain. Tyler Herro will continue to miss time for the Heat which means that it will be the Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo show per usual for Miami. Washington ranks dead last in DvP against opposing SFs meaning this could be a spot where Butler is liable to explode. If this game stays close, he has clear 50+ fantasy point upside. He sees the highest usage bump on the team sans Herro (+2.3%) and needs to be strongly considered in most lineups. The core reason to fade him here is if you are building for a blowout and think that harms his upside (which it certainly could). Washington also ranks dead last in DvP against opposing centers this season which is a superb sign for Adebayo as well. Bam has been far less likely to go bonkers of late with six straight performances of less than 40 fantasy points. The issue is that Washington very well may have nobody to guard him. Marvin Bagley has already been ruled out and Richaun Holmes was downgraded to questionable this morning which is a bad sign for his availability. If they both miss, your guess is as good as ours for who will be playing center for them tonight. Bam easily could have a field day on the Wiz in this spot and is a great piece to stack with Butler in optimal lineups as a result. Newsflash: Terry Rozier also has a matchup against the defense that ranks dead last in DvP against PGs this season…starting to sense a pattern here? The issue with Scary Terry is that he has been completely underwhelming since joining the Heat, posting just one game of greater than 38.5 fantasy points. Yes, the matchup is great. But this is not chalk we are enamored with in GPPs given how poor he has been playing and the ownership you will be eating. Finally, we get to Caleb Martin who is one of the clear best value pieces on both sites tonight. He is coming off a down game against the Thunder where he shot just 3-10 from the field. However, the key is he saw 30 minutes once again and is projected for just over 29 tonight. He doesn’t have the highest ceiling in the world but on a slate without loads of value, you should definitely look to him in most of your lineups.
On the other side of this game, a few Wizards are projected for a moderate level of ownership too, primarily because of all the injuries that they have popping up. The top option on both sites is Deni Avdija who continues to play heavy minutes for the short-handed Wiz. He is not a bad option given he scores at a 1.05 FPPM rate with the missing players off the court and has posted 40+ fantasy points in five of his last ten games. Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole both see their usage rates spike to 30.2% and 26.6% respectively in this spot. The Kuz may be forced into center minutes without Holmes tonight and has scored 40+ fantasy points in seven straight games giving him a pretty solid floor. With that being said, the matchup is brutal and we are not in love with him. However, at around 2% ownership on both sites, he is a very viable GPP option to get different with this stack. Poole has a solid matchup against a Heat squad that ranks 26th in DvP against SGs this season. He has really started to turn things on of late with 40+ fantasy points in four of his last seven games. The inconsistency makes him pretty dang hard to trust though, leaving him as more of a GPP option for us. The last man to note is the aforementioned Richaun Holmes. If Holmes plays, he is a very solid option on DK in particular where he is priced at a strong $1k discount.
After we get past this game, the next spot people are going to target is the injury-riddled Cleveland Cavaliers squad. The Cavs are facing off with the Brooklyn Nets in a game with a vomit-worthy 207.5 total. Cleveland will be without Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Max Strus, and now Dean Wade this evening which will leave them quite shorthanded. Sam Merrill looks like he will be extremely high-owned on both sites and is the top-value option on the slate. Brooklyn ranks 25th in DvP against opposing SGs this season and Merrill is projected to see nearly 30 minutes this evening. Priced in the low $4k range on both sites, he is one of the better pieces to consider in this price range. The only thing to note with Merrill that is scary for a chalk player is that he is very scoring-dependent, averaging just 1.9 rebounds per game and 1.5 assists per game this season. There is a route to fade him if you want to risk it in GPPs and hope he has a poor shooting game here. While they both have been priced up on FD, both Georges Niang and Isaac Okoro are still sub-$5k on DK. Niang looks like one of our favorite plays on the slate as he had been going back and forth with Wade and now Wade is out. Niang played 36 minutes in their last game and posted 37 fantasy points. We have him projected for 32 more minutes tonight. He will be highly owned but is worth the price of admission in our opinion. Okoro is just more expensive but he also will see a few more minutes in all likelihood. You certainly cannot go wrong with playing both of them, but if playing just one, our lean would be Niang as his ceiling is higher. On the more expensive end of the spectrum, we have the trio of Jarrett Allen, Caris LeVert, and Darius Garland. The challenge here is we are fighting the game total when playing these guys that are this expensive. All three of them did have big games against a staunch Minnesota defense. You could do far worse than taking stabs on these three in GPP formats, especially Allen who just dropped 69 in his last game and Garland who is projected for sub-10% ownership.
HOU/SAC
Our favorite GPP game stack takes place in Sacramento tonight as the Houston Rockets will head west to take on the Kings. The 234.5 projected total sits 6 points higher than every other game on the slate with both teams sitting in the top 14 in pace. While the Kings have been the better team on offense, the Rockets have had the edge defensively this season, and as it stands, not one player is projecting for over 20% ownership on either site, making this an elite GPP game stack to target.
For Houston, their production starts with big man Alperen Sengun. Sengun has now topped 42 fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 games, including two monster explosions of 70 and 84-point games earlier this week. His 27% usage rate leads the team and the matchup against the Kings isn’t one of concern this evening, making him a top GPP spend-up. Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green man the backcourt for the Rockets and have each flashed nice ceilings throughout the season. While Green soaks up more usage, FVV has averaged more minutes and has been slightly more productive. Both players are capable of 50 point upside and this is certainly a game environment that could produce a high-scoring affair. Jabari Smith Jr. has been a roller coaster of production lately but he is projected to go unowned this evening and has reached 9x of his current salary multiple times this year, making him another great GPP option in this stack. The final two Rockets we are looking at are value plays on DK only in Cam Whitmore and Amen Thompson. Whitmore has topped 23 DK in four of his last five games while Thompson is coming off a 44-point outburst in his last game. With each priced below $5k on DK and projected to play around 23 minutes, they are viable salary savers that have nice GPP upside that we can target in this stack.
Over on the Kings side, we also start with their big man, Domantas Sabonis. Sabonis sits 3rd on the team in usage at 23% but leads them in production, averaging around 54 DK/ 50 FD points per game. He is a triple-double threat every time he touches the floor and while the Rockets held him in check in two matchups earlier this year, he has been playing on a whole other level of late and looks like another strong spend-up option to target in this game and on this slate. Moving on, De’Aaron Fox is the floor general for the Kings, and he leads the team with a usage rate of around 32%. He and Sabonis have been the 1-2 punch all year for the Kings, and Fox has been on a tear lately, having topped 50 FP in seven of his last eight games. He is projecting to come in less than 7% owned on both sites, making him an elite GPP target. Malik Monk has been balling for the Kings lately, and although he comes off the bench, he still carries a 25% usage rate and is typically on the floor to close games. His reduced price tag on DK is causing him to see some ownership, albeit moderate, and he is another great option in this stack. Keegan Murray is coming off back-to-back duds following a nice stretch where he topped 30 fantasy points in four straight games. His floor is certainly not exciting and the lack of recent production is concerning, still, he is playing heavy minutes and has 7-8x upside at his current price, making him a viable GPP target at minimal ownership this evening. The last three players we can consider from the Kings are the trio of Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, and Trey Lyles. While none of them breed much confidence in the way of production, they are all cheap enough and have showcased upside at their current prices to be viable value plays if you need salary relief. We would not prioritize any of them by any means, but should you need the savings and/or land on any of them as your last spot in, they could be worth a flier given the projected game environment, relative to the rest of the slate.