Optimal Plays: Davis (DK), Tatum (FD), Allen (FD), LeVert, Dosunmu, Monk (DK), Caruso, Banton, Anderson (FD), Achiuwa, H. Barnes (DK), Merrill, Pritchard (FD), Ja. Smith (DK)
GPP Plays: James, Murray, Edwards, Gobert, Reeves, Allen (DK), Simons, J. Johnson, Conley, Okoro, Hendricks (FD), Porter Jr (DK)
Top Game Stacks: CHI/POR (Optimal), CLE/IND (Optimal), MIN/UTA (GPP), ATL/LAL (DK GPP)
Pending Injury News: James, Davis, Tatum, J. Brown, Butler, Gobert, Markkanen, Cunningham, Harris, Bog. Bogdanovic, Caruso, Fontecchio, Anderson
Get ready for chaos on this Monday evening slate. The two sites decided that they wanted to throw caution to the wind and just play totally different slates than each other with DK including all three late-night games while FD excluded them. The challenge is that there is not a single game amongst all of them with a total that exceeds 225, making no one game stand out in particular from a total perspective. When you throw into the mix a robust 10 players priced above $6k that all are questionable, you have the makings of quite the wild ride. Make sure you stay close as the slate will evolve a time or six between now and the end.
Tonight’s slate brings with it two clear games that are projected as optimal from a game-stacking perspective. The first of these games is the one taking place between the Chicago Bulls and the Portland Trail Blazers. From a macro perspective, there is not a ton to love in this spot. The game has just a 214-point total and Portland is 8.5-point dogs on the road. The Bulls are hardly a team to go out of your way to target as they rank 29th in pace and 15th in defensive rating. It looks like this will be the slowest paced game on the entire slate, but ownership has flocked in its direction due to some injuries. Delano Banton is projected as the highest owned player in this game (and one of the highest on the entire slate) on both sites this evening. Portland will continue to be without Jerami Grant which will lead to a very heavy workload for Banton. He now has played 42 minutes in back to back games and is not priced for the role he will play on this team. He projects to push over 40% ownership on both sites so this is not really a spot to get cute. He provides great value for you and we would recommend playing him in most lineups tonight. Outside of Banton on the Blazers side, Anfernee Simons looks like a very viable GPP option. He is fully capable of going nuclear and has dropped 60+ fantasy points in two of his last seven games. The Bulls give up a ton of three pointers which plays directly into his hands. Deandre Ayton also has been going bonkers of late, and while the matchup is not sublime, he certainly has the upside to be played here if you wanted to take this stack in a more GPP direction, especially at his 10% ownership projection.
Flipping to the other side of this game, there is one huge piece of injury news that needs to be monitored. Coby White was originally listed as doubtful but went through shootaround so there is a possibility that he does play tonight. Our projections currently have him missing this contest so what follows will be under that assumption. Alex Caruso is also questionable himself but, if he does play, is projected to be one of the chalkier options on the slate. He has been playing 35 or so minutes each night without White on the court and has been quite consistent. The issue is that two of those games came against the Wizards and Pacers, two teams that are allergic to defense. Even with that, his ceiling is not great. With all of the question marks surrounding this spot, we don’t love him in a very slow paced game, even if White misses. We would look elsewhere in GPP formats. Ayo Dosunmu is essentially the exact same thing as Caruso. We could literally copy and paste it. He is projected for exceptionally high ownership and has a very shaky ceiling at his price. He is safe to hit value and that is about it. Look elsewhere in GPPs as well. DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic both look like solid options. But they too are fantasy projection mirages in our estimation. We just hate playing expensive players in very mediocre game scripts which this game provides. They probably will score about 40 fantasy points or so and that is that. For their price you would need more for takedowns which has us less than enthused about their prospects. In a nutshell, the only player we think you need from this game for sure is Banton. Everybody else is fully fadable on this slate.
If people are not playing players from the Bulls/Blazers game, the other game they are turning to is the one between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers. This game features a slate high 225.5 total and a 6.5 point spread in favor of the Pacers. Most of the ownership in this one will come on the Cleveland side of the ball as they continue to just be riddled with injuries. They will be without Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Max Strus, and Dean Wade once again. As a result, Sam Merrill will continue to be a very popular value option on both sites as he should play a solid number of minutes once again. He has played 28 in back to back games and is projected for 27 more this evening. The concern with Merrill is he is quite scoring dependant. If his shot is not falling, he becomes pretty useless so there is a path to looking elsewhere in GPPs if you want to. We have seen multiple sub-20 fantasy point performances when he has been given this amount of run so it is not like he is a sure thing. Jarrett Allen is a very interesting player to look to tonight as he is projected to be quite chalky on FD and exceptionally lower owned on DK (sub-10%). He has been super up and down of late but is starting to be priced at a point that is prohibitive. He has scored greater than 43 fantasy points in just three of his last fifteen games and does not have much of a ceiling to speak of for an $8k player. You can certainly take a stab at him in GPPs on DK. However, we do not love him at over 30% ownership on FD. Caris LeVert looks like a great option in this spot as he sees a strong usage bump without these players on the court. He has averaged roughly 33 minutes per game over his last eight games and should be in line for that many once again tonight. He has shown 50+ fantasy point upside which shows the ceiling we want to see from a player in his price range. We love him in all formats as a result. Isaac Okoro does have use as a GPP value option on this slate. He easily could dud but will see a ton of minutes and was quite consistently scoring 20+ fantasy points per game prior to their last two outings. Craig Porter, Jr. is a viable GPP option on DK where he is priced at just $3.3k and should see around 17 minutes or so as the backup floor general with Mitchell out once again. He looks solid in GPPs.
The Pacers side of this one is far less exciting. The primary option to consider is Jalen Smith on DK in particular where he is just $4k. He won’t play more than 18 or so minutes which substantially caps his ceiling. With him projected for over 20% ownership on the site, he is a great cash option that won’t kill you with his high floor. However, we would not advise using him in GPPs. Tyrese Haliburton can always be used, however he has seen his upside absolutely neutered since the acquisition of Siakam and we don’t love him in this matchup.
The next game we want to dive into is a matchup between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Utah Jazz. The injury concerns we have here are Rudy Gobert, Kyle Anderson, and Lauri Markkanen, all who carry a Q tag so be sure to be alert on Discord for any updates. We start with the Timberwolves side of things as they will be without KAT. With KAT off the court, Anthony Edwards sees an insane 36% usage rate which makes for a great spot to target against a Jazz team that ranks 29th against his position. Projecting for only 7% ownership, this makes for an excellent GPP play as the shot volume should be amazing to help give Edwards a safe floor as a 1.26 FPPM producer. The next spot to talk about is Rudy Gobert who will be making his return to Utah. He makes for another great GPP play at around 11% where he should have another double-double and perhaps a little added motivation going against his old team. With KAT out of the lineup, Gobert sees his REB % increase to 21%, and with how undersized Utah is, he should have no problem feasting in the paint against a team that ranks 18th vs. Centers. Kyle Anderson is the next guy worth mentioning as he carries 20% ownership as he fills in for KAT in the starting lineup. He is someone that can be faded with value potentially opening up as he has failed to show us any upside for ceiling games. He has gone over 30 FP ZERO times in his last seven games where he has played over 28 minutes. The last three guys to touch on are Naz Reid, Mike Conley, and Nickeil Walker–Alexander. Ever since KAT has been out, Naz Reid has seen himself rise to a 1.29 FPPM producer and this spot against the Jazz who rank 18nth vs Centers makes for another great spot. He is currently getting no ownership so this can be a great spot for GPPs. Mike Conley is in a matchup against a Jazz team that ranks 28th vs Point Guards, so with an assist rate of 24% and usage at 18% with KAT off the court, he makes for a decent piece at $5.8k that will also garner only 6% ownership. Lastly, Nickeil Walker-Alexander makes for a nice value play as he projects for 26 minutes and will only benefit if Anderson gets ruled out.
We move on to the Jazz side of things where Lauri Markkenen could make his return from a six game absence. Looking into DVP data from the last 14 days, while Minnesota ranks top 10 vs the PG position, they rank near the bottom in APG & steals vs PG’s. This could be a matchup for Collin Sexton and Keyonte George to take advantage of as we have seen them playing great lately and with both projecting for less than 3% ownership, they make for interesting GPP options. For as good of a defensive team as Minnesota is, the one position they have been playing poorly against the last two weeks are against centers. With that being said, John Collins also makes for an interesting play at no ownership. He has gone over 38 FP in three of his last five games against teams that also struggle vs C’s. The last guy to touch on is Lauri Markkenen, who with his current projection could make for a fade candidate especially if he is going to have a minutes restriction.
The final spot to target is a DK-only game between the Atlanta Hawks and the LA Lakers. There are only two players projected to carry greater than 10% ownership in this game despite it featuring a total of 225 which is one of the highest on the entire slate. This has all the makings of being one of the fastest paced games on the entire slate with the Lakers ranking 6th in pace and 18th in defensive rating while the Hawks run at a blistering pace as well. Starting with the Atlanta side of things, they will continue to be extremely injury-riddled and will once again be without Trae Young, Onyeka Okongwu, Saddiq Bey, and AJ Griffin this evening. One of our top plays on the entire slate tonight is Dejounte Murray who has put the team on his back and been absolutely going berzerk without Young. He has posted performances of 45, 57, 56, 44, and 65 fantasy points in his last five games and the Lakers cannot stop a nose bleed at the guard position, ranking 25th in DvP against PGs this season. He is projected to carry around 5% ownership which is absurd for the upside he holds in this game. Jalen Johnson is another phenomenal pick that will be higher owned than Murray but still nowhere near the ceiling he has shown of late for this shorthanded Hawks squad. With 50+ fantasy points in two of the last thre games he has been healthy and hasn’t left early, he has been posting exceptional games filled with tons of peripherals. We love him in GPPs as well.
We move on the Lakers side of things where Anthony Davis and LeBron James carry Q tags, but with playoff implications on the line, we should see them give it a go. The only person seeing any notable ownership on this team is Anthony Davis at 17%. As a near 1.50 FPPM producer, AD makes for an excellent stud to pay up for going against a Hawks team that struggles vs the Center position ranking 27th. AD didn’t play in the last game they faced Atlanta, so he should look to take advantage this time around if he plays. LeBron James on the other hand did play, and he put up a 20-9-8 line vs. the Hawks. The Hawks struggle vs the SF position as well ranking 27th. As a 1.42 FPPM producer, this makes for a prime spot to play LeBron as he is getting only 7% ownership. Not to mention, LeBron has gone over 50 FP in 11 of his last 13 games! So this is as safe of a floor as it can get with a stud that is worth paying up for. The last two guys to touch on are D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves both who are in the $7k range. Russell could look to bounce back here against the Hawks as he shot horribly last time he faced them. On the season Russell is a 1.06 FPPM producer , so with a projection of 35 minutes going against a Hawks team that ranks 21st vs. PG’s, it makes for a nice spot in GPPs to target at 1% ownership. Austin Reaves, on the other hand, went off for 28 points and 6 assists last time he faced the Hawks, so they could have trouble containing him once again. Looking into DVP data, the Hawks rank near the bottom in 3PM and APG against the SG position, so this could make for a spot for Reaves to have another great game. He also projects for only 1% ownership so he makes for an excellent target in GPPs as well.