Optimal Plays: VanVleet (FD), Jal. Green (DK), Kuzma (FD), Gobert (FD), Vassell, Smith Jr., Poole, Thompson (DK), T. Jones (DK), Gafford (DK), J. Champagnie, Brooks (FD), Butler (FD)
GPP Plays: Doncic, Wembanyama, VanVleet (DK), Jal. Green (DK), T. Jones (FD), Gafford (FD), Lively, Brooks
Top Game Stacks: HOU/WAS (Optimal), DAL/SA
Pending Injury News: Edwards, Kuzma, Gobert, Reid, Mann
Welcome to a generally quiet Tuesday slate! Both sites have included all the games, so we are looking at five games for DK and FD. The pending injury report is pretty calm as far as the number of players, but all the Minnesota guys are in the last game of the slate, so be sure to have some flexibility built in if you are looking to use anyone in that game. We have a good number of people out for Washington and Houston that will make that the optimal game for us. Not a ton today stands out for a game environment outside of the Dallas/SA game, so it does feel like a slate that going for bigger stacks of 4-5 guys in a game could be the way to go, looking to hit the game that goes off. Let’s dive right into it!
The game between the Houston Rockets and Washington Wizards currently has a 228 total, with the Rockets favored by nine points. These teams just played five days again with a 135-119 win for Houston, so we know they can put up points together. These teams are 2nd and 3rd in the league in pace in their last ten games, so we expect another up-and-down affair. For Washington, if Kuzma sits out, all of their guys are going to be priced under $6k on both sites, meaning we’ll probably have to look at some of these guys in all formats, so keep an eye on Discord as we get the injury news rolling in. Justin Champagnie has played 25 and 36 minutes the last two games with all the Washington injuries and played very well in each game. Avdjia is already out, so most likely he will draw another start and have a big role. He was priced a bit higher on FD than DK, but he’s still very playable on both sites. He will be popular for good reason, and we shouldn’t overthink it and plug him into our rosters if he does draw the start. Jared Butler is optimal on FD, and while he is fine for cash games at his price, he isn’t great for GPPs since he has never shown much of a ceiling. We don’t mind looking elsewhere. Jordan Poole is once again grading out well in this matchup and is looking very chalky. He was ok in the last game between these two teams and will see enough minutes for cash games as long as this game isn’t a blowout (he saw 32 minutes in that last game). He can get hot and have a great GPP score, but we understand if you’d want to look elsewhere when he is projected to be heavily owned. Kyle Kuzma has played quite well when he’s been at the center spot but seems to have lost a bit of ceiling with the return of Holmes. He is another one who’s a good cash game play, and while he is usable in tournaments just due to the pace we’ll see here, isn’t someone you’d have to prioritize. On the Houston side, they have been carried offensively since Sengun went down by Jalen Green and Fred VanVleet. Both had very good games against Washington last week and are both in a great spot here tonight again. We do prefer Jalen more, as shooting guards have a +10.34% FPPM boost against Washington, and while the numbers don’t look quite as strong for point guards, they don’t take into account that Coulibaly and Avdjia are missing for Washington. We would choose one or the other tonight in GPPs, and not look to play them together, as they’ve both seen their price come up a decent amount. Jabari Smith Jr. disappointed in the last matchup, but he’s been starting at center since the Sengun injury, and centers get a +20.55% rebounding boost against the Wiz and a +8.15% FPPM boost overall. He’s only drawing a modest ownership projection, and he isn’t someone you should be afraid of using in this matchup. Amen Thompson had a double-double against Washington last time out and continues to be under $6k on DK. He is very much in play there in GPPs as he has 40 fantasy point upside in this matchup. Dillon Brooks has picked up some scoring slack with the Rockets injuries. While his overall fantasy point average is up, he is more of a cash game play than GPP usually, and we would look to fade him in GPPs.
Onto our other game stack of the night, we look to San Antonio, where Dallas will be paying a visit. Starting on the Mavs side, we start with superstar point guard Luka Doncic. Doncic is the best player in DFS, and it’s not close. The Slovenian point guard leads the league with 66 DraftKings points per game while establishing a 50-point floor. Since the All-Star break, Luka has averaged 70 fantasy points per game and should have success against San Antonio, whom he has dominated this year, averaging 33 points, 11.3 rebounds, 9.3 assists, and 1.7 steals in their three matchups. It is also worth noting that the Spurs are surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing point guards, putting Luka in a great situation tonight! The next guy we really like here is Daniel Gafford, who is loving his role on his new team. We only like him on DK tonight as he is priced way too high on FD. This guy was $7k on both sites when he played for Washington, but his limited role with Dallas dropped his price. His workload is on the uptick now though, and he has scored at least 35 DK points in four of his last five games. The thing that makes him even better tonight is his matchup, as San Antonio sits 27th in total defense while surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season. Derrick Lively II also looks solid due to the great matchup we talked about above with Gafford, but he holds some risk as he hasn’t seen more than 23 minutes since January. Though he hasn’t been getting a lot of minutes, he has been very efficient in DFS over the last few nights, scoring 25+ DK points in three of his last four games, and at $4k, we would be thrilled with 25 DK points, making him viable tonight. We only recommend one of Gafford and Lively II as a path to a ceiling game for one of them could come from the other one getting in foul trouble, affecting their minute splits as they never see the floor at the same time.
Onto the San Antonio side, we start with the “French Phenom” Victor Wembanyama. Wembanyama has been very consistent of late, scoring at least 40 DraftKings points in 13 straight games, posting a 61-point average in that span. That directly correlates with his minute restriction being lifted, and he should destroy Dallas. The Mavs rank 21st in defensive efficiency, and Wemby was great in this matchup last time they played, scoring 53 DK points. It is also worth noting that Wemby has unreal stock upside tonight as Luka is towards the top of the league in drives per game and should give Victor plenty of shots around the rim that he can block with his 8-foot wingspan. It’s hard to understand why Tre Jones remains so cheap. The Spurs starting point guard has averaged 32 DraftKings points per game since the promotion while establishing a 25-point floor. He’s also scored at least 32 fantasy points in four of his last five games and shouldn’t have any issues against a Dallas team that has struggled immensely versus opposing guards. Jones seems like a very safe play tonight, and we really like him as a part of this game stack for some salary relief. The other guy we really like in this matchup is Devin Vassell, who gets a great matchup versus a Dallas team that ranks 28th vs guards in DFS. Vassell projects as the best Spur tonight but we would look to play Jones over him as he is much cheaper, and in three games versus Dallas this year Vassell is only averaging an underwhelming 26 DK points, making us like Tre Jones more in this spot, especially with a discount.