Optimal Plays: Davis (DK), Young, Jackson Jr. (FD), Daniels, Wiggins (FD), Washington (FD), Edey, Pippen, LeVert, Aldama (DK), Gueye
GPP Plays: Adebayo, Herro, Bane, D. Mitchell, Thompson, Risacher, Gueye, Anderson
Pending Injury News: Morant
The final two play-in games are upon us! We will have the full 16-team bracket set, as these teams fight for the “prize” of facing Cleveland or Oklahoma City in the first round. Both of these games are great on a 2-game slate since they each have ways they can be stacked, and you’ll want to approach this slate with a heavy stack of one. It should be a nice appetizer into the main course starting tomorrow, so let’s get to it!
First we have our Eastern Conference game with the Miami Heat facing off against the Atlanta Hawks. For the Heat, their ownership projections are reasonable on FD and great on DK outside of one guy, Andrew Wiggins. Wiggins is a lock for your cash games on FD, where he’s $800 cheaper and a strong consideration there on DK. In GPPs, he can be great if you can get to him, as we love stacking up multiple Heat guys here but he would be the first casualty of the top three. Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo have awesome usage (Herro) and the nut matchup (Bam), so we want to prioritize those two first with a significantly lower ownership projection. You can get all three and Davion Mitchell easier on FD, who continues to close despite not starting. He had 15 potential assists against Chicago and this is a very similar matchup. Again, all four are in a great spot, and just getting all of them probably helps keep you the most unique, but we really like the latter three in GPPs. Ke’lel Ware got his minutes cut in favor of Kyle Anderson last game, and Atlanta could force him off the floor here as they are usually forced to play plenty of small ball lineups. While there’s a road to him rebounding well and holding down the interior, the risk is high enough for him to get 20-22 minutes again that we don’t love him. Anderson is usually a 1 FPPM-type guy, and he’s cheap enough that we like him as an option in Heat stacks to save some salary. Anderson beating his minutes projection at almost no projected ownership is a place we’d rather bet on than Ware with how well Anderson played in Chicago. Nikola Jovic could be back here, as he’s listed as probable, and that muddles up the rest of the Heat bench to where we’d avoid them. For the Hawks, Trae Young is similar to Wiggins, where he’s a lock in cash games because of how many minutes he’ll play and how much he’ll be handling the ball. However, in GPPs, he’s a tough click. He’s never been great against the Heat, and this time of year when he becomes the absolute focal point for defenses is much harder for him. Factor in his salary, and while he can’t just be “X”-ed out, he is someone we are not high on. Even at a much higher projected ownership, we’d rather play Dyson Daniels here since he can stuff the stat sheet even with minimal shots, and he’ll probably end up with the ball in his hands a fair amount as they force it out of Trae’s. Onyeka Okongwu ended up with fewer shots than some bench guys against Orlando, and the Heat’s defensive schemes are similar, where they’ll look to lock down the paint in favor of some open 3s, so he isn’t a great option either. We do like Caris LeVert and Zaccharie Risacher though, as they’ll be the beneficiaries of those shots. The trio of Daniels, LeVert, and Risacher are our three favorite Hawks, all fine in stacks or as 1-offs. The value Hawk we don’t mind, similar to Anderson, is Mouhamed Gueye. He ended up playing 26 minutes against Orlando as Snyder is desperate for any size that can play out there. He repaid that trust with double-digit scoring and some decent rebounding as well, and with the Heat playing some bigger lineups like Orlando with Ware and Adebayo, we are into him here at his price.
Moving out to the Western Conference, we have the Dallas Mavericks taking on the Memphis Grizzlies. Anthony Davis had a lot of offense running through him against Sacramento and ended up with 23 shots. He didn’t shoot well, but it didn’t matter. While he’s expensive, he’s in a really nice spot here against the Memphis bigs, as neither is a great 1-on-1 defender in the post. PJ Washington has been the de facto point guard since Kyrie went out and he plays. He had 10 potential assists against Sacramento, and there should be just as much, if not more, transition for him to take advantage of. That transition is huge for Klay Thompson too, and he should get some open looks here. They also cranked him up to well over 30 minutes, and time shouldn’t be a concern for him. Naji Marshall didn’t get as many shots with so much Klay time, but he’ll be out there a ton still, and his price isn’t nuts, so we like him enough to consider. We’d stick to these four guys for the Mavs, as even before the blowout run, they played a lot of combinations at center and with guards like Exum and Brandon Williams. We also wouldn’t rule out Dinwiddie being brought back to the rotation here in an up-and-down game. For the Grizzlies, it obviously all revolves around Ja Morant and his ankle. The report is that he got an injection and is “determined to play”, but there is significant swelling. There’s still a chance after trying that he can’t go late into the game, but you gotta think he’s going to give it what he can. He’s looking decently owned, so it’s hard to love him here. This makes Desmond Bane our preferred Memphis guy, and he had a massive game against Golden State. Scottie Pippen was in foul trouble against the Warriors and still saw 34 minutes. He continues to have a great all-around game when seeing those kind of minutes, and is great in both stacks and as of 1-of. Since Jenkins was let go, Zach Edey gets all the time he can handle. While foul trouble is a risk for him, and his price came up a decent amount, he has a nice shot to get there just on his rebounding volume and some easy putbacks. Speaking of foul trouble, Jaren Jackson Jr. isn’t much better at staying out there, and you’d think this is where AD will spend a lot of his time on defense. The matchup isn’t great, and a bet on JJJ for us is just a bet on Morant not playing, meaning he’s down the totem pole of the Grizzlies guys here. With the foul potential on these two guys, plus the Grizz maybe needing to match some big lineups, we are really into Santi Aldama. He can help space the floor as well as provide some much-needed rebounding, so we see a lot of paths for him to end up over 30 minutes. Good luck to everyone tonight!