CPT: Gilgeous-Alexander (optimal), Edwards, Randle (GPP), Nickeil Alexander-Walker (GPP Value)
UTIL: Jalen Williams, Holmgren, Reid, DiVincenzo, Conley, Wallace, Wiggins, Dort (GPP), McDaniels (GPP), Joe (GPP)
Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals tips off tonight, after the Thunder handled business in Game 1 behind another stellar night from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and strong team defense. The Timberwolves will look to make adjustments offensively after struggling to find rhythm for most of the opener, particularly down the stretch. Let’s break down the DFS angles heading into tonight’s showdown.
At Captain, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the optimal choice. He led all scorers in Game 1 and continued his playoff trend of stuffing the stat sheet. With 30+ points in four straight games and elite usage, he’s still the best raw point ceiling on the slate. Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle are still viable in tournaments, but the Thunder defense gave them fits in Game 1 by clogging up the paint. Edwards’ efficiency continues to dip against elite defenders, and with his ankle injury lingering it’s harder to love him in the captain spot. He’ll need a cleaner offensive night to pay off at CPT and we think Shai just makes more sense considering Edwards will carry quite a bit of ownership. Randle is viable too, but he struggled with the same problem Ant faced, which is that they love to drive to the basket and the Thunder were having none of it. Ant said after the game “They clogged the paint… every time I go to the rim, it’s like four people in the paint.” Given how much they won the game by, I would expect the Thunder to continue with the same strategy. I’m actually glad that Randle shot so efficiently in game one, because I think people will be less wary of him now. In reality, it’s bad news that he and Edwards are taking the same amount of shots as a bunch of cheaper role players. This defensive scheme will force them to kick it out for open threes from role players and they have no choice but to hope that those guys start making the shots. Both are viable captain plays because they are capable of getting hot and taking shot after shot and running up a huge score, but in most scenarios, I think I would rather have the OKC studs. For prop site users, I love parlaying Edward and Randle assists overs with three point overs from guys like NAW, Donte D, and Reid.
That brings us to one the best value Captain pivots tonight in Nickeil Alexander-Walker. He was a bright spot for Minnesota in Game 1, logging big minutes off the bench and chipping in across the board. His defensive role is secure, and if his shot is falling, he has a clear path to 25+ DK points. He was just 2/9 in Game 1 from deep, but I think he has tons of upside if the threes start falling. He should get tons of open looks when the defense collapses on the drivers.
Moving to the utility spots, Jalen Williams is a strong option. He started slow but came on late, showing his usual well-rounded contributions. He’s slightly overpriced, but still in play as a nice high floor flex option. If you’re building for lower scores from Randle and Edwards, then he fits well.
Another guy that would apply to is Chet Holmgren, who had a quieter Game 1 but was solid all around and put up a respectable score. If the Wolves keep driving but try to force the issue instead of passing it out, he could rack up blocks. Jaden McDaniels played heavy minutes guarding SGA and continues to get solid three-point opportunities thanks to all the defensive attention on Ant and Randle, but as we saw in Game 1 this defensive assignment is very dangerous. He fouled out in just 24 minutes and is a very risky play tonight.
Naz Reid offers excellent upside again tonight. Despite an off Game 1 going 0/7 from deep, he continues to be their best shooter this postseason. If Minnesota plays from behind again, his role should only grow. That reduces interest in Rudy Gobert, who struggles to stay on the floor alongside Reid in small-ball matchups. The way Oklahoma City is clogging the paint makes it even harder for Gobert to score and increases the need for a shooter on the perimeter, so we really have no interest in Gobert in this matchup.
Mike Conley remains an important piece for the Wolves. He helps settle the offense and had a decent outing in Game 1. At his price, he’s still a solid floor play with a decent ceiling if the threes are falling. Donte DiVincenzo didn’t do much in Game 1 but the minutes were there and he attempted 12 threes. He’s a riskier option but well worth considering because he could go off if the shot is falling. This slate will probably come down to picking the right Minnesota role players who knock down their shots, and Donte has as good a chance as anyone to hit a ceiling game.
Lu Dort remains a defensive stalwart, but the offensive woes continued in Game 1. If he can knock down a couple open looks, he can stick in the upper 20s for minutes, but he’s a volatile piece. He only got 4 looks in Game 1 and it sometimes feels like his role is diminishing to nothing, but then suddenly he’ll have a game where he’s raining down threes. It’s really hard to time those games though, making him a GPP only option. We think you’re better off guessing on the Minnesota mid range than using Lu.
Meanwhile, Aaron Wiggins has emerged as one of the sneakiest value plays on the slate. His minutes have fluctuated, but when he’s on the floor, he contributes in every category. He was efficient again in Game 1 and could see more run if the Thunder need a scoring boost from the second unit. He’s a high-risk, high-reward GPP value play with a path to slate-breaking upside. He or Isaiah Joe could earn extra minutes at any point and provide a very useful score for a cheap value play.
The last guy to mention is Cason Wallace, who is coming off a 33 minute game in which he was in the closing unit over Hartenstein. He was playing absolutely fantastic on both sides of the floor so it isn’t a shock at all that the coaches would leave him out there. The question now is whether we think that carries over into game 2. I think the ownership boost for sure will, and the minutes are uncertain. In cash you definitely just play him, but in GPPs I think there’s merit to playing or fading. The public may overreact and make him too chalky, but the coaches may also like what they see again tonight and give him extra run once again.
That wraps up our Game 2 breakdown. Good luck in your contests tonight!