You can find this at -124 on DraftKings currently, and we’re fine eating the juice to -130 to get the hook. We think Pittsburgh is an overrated team, and we think the market has overreacted to Baltimore’s players that are sitting. Based on past betting lines, these teams playing in Baltimore when fully healthy would likely have the Ravens as about a 10-point favorite. They’ll be without a few key players for sure in Lamar, Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham Jr, and Kevin Zeitler. Kyle Hamilton and Brandon Stephens are questionable for this matchup as well. The important thing to remember is that this is the NFL, you can’t sit that many guys. In College, 25 guys can opt out for a bowl game and it’s alright because they have an endless number of players. Even though a few key starters will be out, this will be mostly the Ravens’ first team against an overrated Steelers team, in bad weather in Baltimore. Mason Rudolph looked good against poor defenses in Seattle and Cincinnati. Even if a few players are out, this is still a Mike Macdonald-led unit, against Mason Rudolph in what is essentially a playoff game for Pittsburgh. We also get to fade a team in a must-win game, which has been historically profitable. Teams in must-win situations are 39% against the spread, and that number drops to 33% when the team is laying more than a field goal. We’ve also consistently seen the underdog cover in this rivalry. To add the cherry on top, getting the hook in a game with a total in the low 30s is very valuable.
