Update: Berrios and Smythe are both active. I’m not really interested in Cedrick Wilson or Berrios now.
Optimal Plays: Pacheco (elite GPP captain), Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, J. Wilson, Moore (optimal punt), Chiefs D, Gray
Top GPP Plays: Watson (top GPP punt), Waddle, Mostert, McKinnon, Rice, Smythe, Dolphins D
For some reason the NFL sent one of the best games of the year over to Germany, so now we have a Sunday morning showdown between two good teams that I actually want to watch. I guess it’s kind of fun to have it as an island game, but I wish it was at night instead of the first thing I open my eyes to in the morning. But I digress. Let’s dive into the DFS plays!
Usually we start Chiefs showdowns by talking about Mahomes and Kelce, but this time I’m starting with the ground game and locking in Isiah Pacheco. Last week Pacheco never got going as the Chiefs were shockingly playing catchup as the offense struggled mightily all day. Nobody else had more than one carry, which tilts me even more that Mahomes and Kelce ruined my elite afternoon lineup. However, I think the best thing to do is not worry about last week. Mahomes was reportedly dealing with an illness, it was freezing cold throughout the game (although I doubt that did anything), so I think we can just chalk this up to an off week for a great team. The main reason we’re starting with Pacheco in this writeup is because Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out, and that basically ensures that Pacheco will have a workhorse role. McKinnon has taken just 11 carries all year, and he didn’t do anything with them. This is very clearly Pacheco’s backfield to dominate, and it’s a good matchup as Miami’s run defense is very mediocre. We’ve seen the Chiefs lean on the run game with Pacheco when it’s working, and Pacheco’s goalline role in a projected shootout could be extremely valuable. The best part about playing Pacheco is that he allows you to build without Mahomes. You can’t play all four of the top studs in this game, and Mahomes’ price tag and ownership makes him the one I’m most inclined to fade. Pacheco is elite leverage off him as he can steal a TD or two and allow the other studs to outperform Patrick. I love locking him in either at captain or in the flex.
Moving on to Patrick Mahomes, he’s obviously never a bad play. It really just depends on whether you’re willing to fade the other studs to play him. He doesn’t throw to Pacheco very often, so I think if you’re using Pacheco it makes sense to let Mahomes be the stud you leave out, but it would be very unique to run both. If you are building without Pacheco and without Butker then you’d definitely want Mahomes unless it’s a full Miami onslaught build with just one KC pass catcher. There are a lot of creative ways you can build on this slate, but if you go with a pretty logical build then I think you would want to pass on using Mahomes and prioritize Pacheco.
You’ll most likely want KC pass catching in your lineup, and it starts with Travis Kelce. He’s over his injuries as he played a season high 85% of snaps last game, and he’s averaging nearly 10 targets per game. Miami has actually been a bottom 5 team this year against tight ends, which sets up perfectly for Kelce. They’re expected to get Jalen Ramsey back, who hasn’t played much this year but he leads the NFL in coverage grade on PFF, so this should make the outside matchups even tougher. Xavien Howard is also expected to play, but he hasn’t been good in coverage so it doesn’t matter all that much if he plays or not. Travis is averaging over 20 PPG this year on DK as Mahomes’ top target and I project him to continue his dominance in a good matchup.
After Kelce, it gets ugly, but there’s some good value to be had. We need it on this slate, and KC is providing us with multiple great value plays. The optimal play is Skyy Moore, who is sneakily maintaining his role with over 30 snaps in every game this season. There was talk about him losing his role to guys like Toney and Rice, but somehow he’s managing to continue playing a lot. And he’s actually averaging 6.4 expected fantasy points per game, which is very good for his super low price. Justin Watson is in a similar boat averaging 5.5 XFP per game, but he’s the better GPP option while Moore is better for cash games. Watson plays less snaps than Moore, but not by much, and his higher average depth of target makes up for fewer opportunities. He’s got a 23.5 aDOT which is really insane, and it shows just how much upside he has. Whenever he and Mahomes connect, it has slate breaking potential. He’s exceeded 6 points this year in 5 out of 7 games while those other two games were basically zeroes. That’s a great GPP play if I’ve ever seen one, and Watson has yet to score a TD this year so if one of these long catches can go for paydirt then he’ll be a lock for the optimal lineup. You can use both of these guys if you want to go double-KC value to pay up for studs, but if you only play one I like Moore in cash games and Watson in GPPs. The last guy you can punt with, who is viable in all formats, is Noah Gray. He’s been incredibly consistent this year, getting 2+ targets in all but one game, but only exceeding 3 targets in one game. He’s just a guy who is on the field for a little over half the snaps, and that’s enough to be viable when you play for the Chiefs. I’d rather use the WRs above, but if you need to squeeze out a few extra dollars of salary, you can use Gray. If he scores a TD (he’s got one this year) then he’d probably be the optimal punt.
The only other KC players to consider are Rashee Rice and Jerick McKinnon. Both are viable options, but I don’t love them. Rice is probably a little overhyped right now, averaging just 9.3 XFP and still not playing a significantly larger portion of the game than the other group of WRs. He’s their best WR right now, but I don’t think it’s enough that I want to pay the higher price for him and eat the ownership. McKinnon is viable in a game script where the Dolphins take a big lead. I think I might include him in some lineups where I fade Pacheco and play Mostert. On FanDuel, he’s really underpriced at 6.5k and could be used in just about any build as he doesn’t need much to pay off that price.
On the Miami side, we have the surprising MVP favorite Tua Tagovailoa averaging over 20 fantasy points per game. The Dolphins haven’t played in a game with less than a 14-point margin of victory since Week 2. They lost badly to Philly and Buffalo, and they beat up on the Broncos, Giants, Patriots, and Panthers. Their first two games were close wins against the Chargers and Patriots. This game will be an interesting test for them as they’ve yet to prove themselves against a competent opponent. The spread is pretty much even here, but my lean is towards KC. Until I see Miami’s creativity fooling a good team, I’ll be backing good teams against them. Their defense couldn’t stop Buffalo or Philly at all, and they couldn’t stop the Chargers either, who I would consider the only other good offense they’ve seen. All of those teams put up 30+ on them, so if Miami’s offense struggles at all I’m expecting KC to hold a lead in this game. Regardless of whether I’m right or not, I think Tua is a smash in pretty much any game script. He’s scoring just as well as Mahomes this year, but he’s priced lower and projects for lower ownership. I have to give him a lower overall projection because his floor is lower than Mahomes, but I think his upper quartile games are elite and that makes him a terrific GPP play. He’s also a QB playing in an expected shootout, so that makes him a lock in cash games as well.
Another stud on this slate that’s hard to fade is the Miami WR1 Tyreek Hill. He’s been by far and away the best fantasy wide receiver this year, averaging an absurd 28.4 DraftKings points per game. He hasn’t faced his old team yet, and while this narrative will be pretty interesting, I doubt it really impacts the game. Miami’s plan is surely always to get Hill the ball, and for defenses it’s always to try and prevent Hill from getting the ball. He’s pretty much uncoverable, and you can’t overcommit to him with three guys because you’ve gotta deal with Waddle on the other side. I could see some people thinking maybe KC has a secret sauce to contain their former star WR and fading Hill, but he’ll no doubt be chalky even with so many studs on the slate. I think he’ll have success against this secondary just like he’s done against nearly every other team, but playing him comes at a cost. Even in builds where you assume KC dominates, you can still use Hill as he had 11 catches on 15 targets in their recent loss to Philly where the offense struggled. He’s a good play in all formats. The only thing that makes him not a lock is that Jaylen Waddle might be an ever better play.
Jaylen Waddle is averaging just 5 fewer expected fantasy points per game than Hill, but as we know Tyreek is always going to exceed whatever a league average player would do with the same volume. That being said, Waddle is no slouch either, and the fact that he’s underperforming his XFP is pretty surprising. I think he’s run bad this year to have as few points as he does. He’s been coming on a bit lately after three mediocre games to start the season, and it seems his injuries are behind him as he’s no longer listed on the injury report. After not being that involved in those first three games, he’s up to 17.1 XFP in his last 4 games, with Hill averaging 18.8 in that same stretch. That’s not much of a gap at all. Their actual fantasy scores differ by 8.6 per game, but there’s no way Waddle is that far behind in skill. He’s getting unlucky while Hill has been pretty fortunate. I’m not arguing against Hill’s dominance here. He’s been elite and will probably continue smashing. I’m simply making a case that in the same matchup, Waddle could easily have the bigger game. He’s going to be lower owned and costs a lot less to put in your lineup, so it’s tempting to make the pivot to Miami’s WR2.
After the top two studs, the Dolphins lack usable receiving options for fantasy. If Braxton Berrios plays, I wouldn’t be interested in any of these guys. If he’s out, then Cedrick Wilson would become a viable value play. When he’s received enough routes to get targets, he’s been pretty solid. I think he’d be a really nice low owned value play if Berrios is out, but if you don’t want to get up early tomorrow to check for news you can safely fade this group of Miami WR3 options.
Durham Smythe is a nice punt option at $800 on DraftKings. He’s viable on FD too but would probably have to score a TD to be worth using. After receiving 10 targets in the first two weeks, that volume has rightfully shifted to Waddle, leaving Smythe with just 4 targets in his last 4 games. However, he’s still playing most of the Miami TE snaps. He’s questionable as of Saturday night, but if he plays it’s certainly possible that the targets start going away again. He’s a nice punt option and stacks well with Tua as a TD dependent play.
In the run game, Raheem Mostert was crushing early on in the season, but he’s had a couple dud games in a row. The narrative I’m reading on other sites is that Jeff Wilson’s return is to blame, and Mostert is a bad play now, but I don’t think the numbers back that up. Mostert’s snap share has hovered in the mid-50s for six straight weeks. The volume has never been there to make Mostert elite, but due to the creativity in how Miami uses its running backs, he’s managed to finish as a top 3 fantasy running back on three separate occasions. Whenever the efficiency is there, people love using a guy like this, and as soon as they have a few bad weeks everybody starts saying that there’s not enough volume for him to be worth using. I like to play high efficiency, low volume players only when they are unpopular. The same people that played chalk Achane when he was getting a dozen touches now have no interest in Mostert getting about 15 touches. He’s still the goal line back and he still has home run upside, so we know the ceiling game is there for him. He’s never going to project as optimal without more volume, but that will keep his ownership lower. He’s a GPP only play, but one that I like quite a bit. The only issue is that I like Pacheco more, and while using them both is viable, it requires a pretty specific game script for both of them to be getting carries throughout the game.
Jeff Wilson Jr. is definitely viable as it’s quite possible his role expands. He played 14% of snaps in his first game and 25% in his second game, so we know what the floor is for him, but we really don’t know what his ceiling is. My projections like any Dolphins RB getting touches because of how well they scheme for them. That even makes Salvon Ahmed viable, although I can’t say I’ve put him any lineups as I think if Jeff Wilson’s role expands it will come at the expense of Ahmed. I like Wilson’s upside in a script where KC dominates. I think he’ll eventually own the passing down role in this offense, so this would be a good week for him to dominate that role. He doesn’t need much to hit value at his price.
Here’s a section of the writeup you probably weren’t expecting. In a projected shootout, both defenses are great plays on DraftKings, and they’re viable on FanDuel. The reason is simply the pricing, as both defenses have been lowered too much. Even if the shootout materializes, points allowed aren’t really the driver of D/ST scoring. Once they allow 14 points they’re down to 1 fantasy point. It’s all about sacks, turnovers, and the holy grail: defensive TDs. These are high variance plays, and both of these offenses skew pass heavy, which creates more opportunities for defenses. The Chiefs are the preferred option as we expect them to win, Tua took 4 sacks in each of their losses, and the Dolphins turned it over in both games as well. That being said, the Chiefs turned it over 5 times last week against a horrible Broncos defense. So both defenses have potential and probably won’t be as owned as they should be with people expecting a shootout. We prefer the defenses to the kickers, although using a kicker is viable in builds without their QB as it correlates well.
Conclusion: I love using Pacheco and Kelce as my KC studs and passing on Mahomes in my primary build. Moore is the best value play for cash games, while Watson is the best value play in GPPs. It’s a fun slate to make multiple GPP lineups, and you can include some Mahomes builds with guys like Rice and McKinnon. In those builds I’d be fading Pacheco unless you’re anti-correlating on purpose to be unique. On the Miami side, Tua seems like the best play at his price. You should of course pair him with Waddle and/or Hill. I think Waddle and Mostert offer the best leverage on the Dolphins side, but you don’t need to use both. You can also potentially use both of the stud Miami WRs without Tua, banking on those two getting all the volume and outscoring their QB. This slate is loaded with good value plays, including both defenses. They will be underowned as people look to correlate value plays with their QB instead of rostering a defense in a game with a 50 point total.