Update: Ron Rivera said in the pre-game show that he’d like to see Howell play “a good half” and now we’re left guessing if that’s just a figure of speech or if he’s actually getting an entire half of football. It’s really hard to say, but I think when we have information that most people don’t have, we should act on it. So I’m going to use Howell now over Brissett. I feel silly for writing so much about this slate but I think it’s going to pay off when we get takedowns. I’m also interested in pairing him with Dotson and Samuel because they played so many of Howell’s snaps in Game 1.
I have to start this writeup with a random stat because it’s absolutely mind blowing. The Baltimore Ravens have won 24 consecutive preseason games. When you consider that neither team is ever favored by more than a few points in these seemingly random games, it’s pretty unbelievable that a team would put together a win streak like this. If you want to be a part of that discussion, I put out a tweet to gauge whether people think it’s totally random or not: https://twitter.com/JustinMacmahan/status/1693758674974527656?s=20
Now on to the slate. Last night we had an easy cash slate, and tonight there’s probably a consensus cash lineup but I don’t love it like I did last night’s. The consensus team tonight would be Ravens D captain, Washington D in flex (usually I don’t take a stand on defenses but WAS is resting like every starter on defense and BAL is not), Anthony Brown, and Josh Johnson.
Not much needs to be said about why you always lock both defenses on these slates as I think I’ve been making the point every slate. The QBs are both confirmed for a half of football each, and both of them have rushing upside. That means CHALK CITY. In GPPs, you probably could get away with rolling out all four optimal plays in this game and just getting unique with the last two spots, but if you were going to fade one of them I’d fade a Ravens QB. Usually people are more inclined to play the first half starter, but they also lean towards the better runner, which in this case is the second half guy, Brown. My preference is to play Josh Johnson because he’ll get time with the best Ravens offensive players against a Washington defense that is sitting everyone good. If he can’t score in this spot then he doesn’t deserve a roster spot. There I said it. I think their ownership will be similar because people will chase the Brown rushing upside so that makes Brown our fade IF we choose to fade one of the optimal plays. You never ever fade the defenses because they are always lower owned than the confirmed QBs and they don’t project lower so it makes no sense to take your stand there. Get the best leverage available while fading the lower projection.
Ok so who do we consider for our last two or three spots to be unique in GPPs. In cash games, people will just use both kickers. I don’t hate it for this slate in cash, but in GPPs I do. They end up in the optimal lineup at a lower rate than they are owned, so I don’t like picking them. The Washington QBs will probably be overowned given how uncertain their playing time is, but I think Howell would be the “optimal” play of the bunch. Rivera said he wants to see a bunch of reps out of him, but he also said that about Fromm before the first game and we watched him hand the ball off almost every snap and see the least amount of time on the field of all three QBs. Fromm is a fade if they’re just going to run the ball in the 4th quarter when he gets in. Rivera can’t be trusted, and we know people love to trust coach speak in preseason, so Howell might be overowned as a result. Fromm will also be overowned because people love taking the young QBs, not realizing how often these games end with a dozen consecutive handoffs.
Insert Jacoby Brissett. He might be the lowest owned of the three QBs because he’s a veteran and nobody likes playing veterans, but his time out there should come before they grind the clock out in the run game, so I actually like his upside. Rivera could also see one good drive out of Howell and decide that’s enough, and suddenly Brissett plays almost two full quarters before Fromm gets in. This is a spot to take the leverage and use Jacoby. Other sites are touting him as the easy fade, and I’m here to tell you that nothing about this Washington QB situation is easy.
Now here’s where the slate gets interesting. As soon as you dive into the FLEX options, the slate is a total wasteland. This is why I think everyone will just be using QBs and kickers, and if they use a flex play it will be someone on the Ravens for sure because they have the thinner depth chart and have given us more news on who is playing. Keaton Mitchell is the best flex play on the slate, but he might be the highest owned one too since he’s literally the only flex play you could feel good about clicking. This is a backfield that might use 4 different guys tonight, but they also might remember JK Dobbins getting hurt on this field and say screw it we’re not playing Hill or Edwards. I lean towards the Ravens barely using those guys because they know exactly what they have in them. I think Keaton is a very good play and might even prioritize him in cash games over Joey Slye.
For the rest of our Flex options, let’s go off the board and try to ship a GPP with a unique lineup. I think the options to consider from Baltimore are Proche, Black, Demus and Kolar. On the Washington side, I like Pringle, Kemp, Milne, and Jaret Patterson. Jaret gets his whole name written out because he’s my favorite. I think he’ll be very low owned in a backfield that could rotate 6 or 7 guys tonight, but he’s the one I think they should want to feature. This is totally speculation because they aren’t saying anything, but it’s my estimation that he’s on the roster bubble and they want to see him get reps tonight. That makes him the most intriguing of the Washington RBs. When it comes to the 6 WRs I mentioned, they all project about the same. There’s really no way of knowing who will get the targets on their snaps, but I’m pretty confident they will all see 15+ snaps, and it’ll just come down to who gets lucky with an accurate ball from a backup QB when they’re open.
As shitty as that last sentence sounds, I think it could be a good slate if you build multiple lineups and put yourself in position to get lucky with a low owned receiver scoring a touchdown. I think having the right guy from that group is what it will take to win this slate, and most people won’t have the guts to try.