While we always want to be cognizant of ADP and avoid reaching too aggressively, we also like to go into the draft with a few guys at each position that we’d like to take whenever they’re available at a good price. This article is the compilation of discussions amongst our team about which guys offer the most upside at their current prices and are worth getting heavy exposure to across your drafts.
Quarterbacks:
Early: Jackson, Herbert
Mid: Watson, Cousins, Jones
Late: Howell, Tannehill, Jones, Ridder, Garoppolo
Lamar Jackson: While we are still drafting the top 3 QBs first, we like getting high exposure to Lamar Jackson. Lamar is going a round later than the other stud QBs and we think his upside is pretty much equal. He has the best supporting cast of weapons that he’s had in his career and Todd Monken as his coordinator, who loves to push the pace and pass the ball. With QBs being drafted much higher than they were in 2022, we prefer a slight discount with Lamar from the other top QBs in terms of value from draft capital.
Justin Herbert: The Chargers added Quentin Johnston with their first round pick and also added Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator. The Cowboys were always a fast paced offense under Moore, finishing top 5 in plays run every year, so we like Herbert’s upside at his ADP. Similar to Jackson, we like taking these QBs that were already great fantasy assets and should now get a bump in pace.
Deshaun Watson: Obviously 2022 was a disaster, but we’ve seen Deshaun Watson as a top 5 fantasy QB before and he has plenty of weapons this year to regain that form. He’s currently the QB9 in ADP and we think he has the upside to perform similarly to the top QBs. The downside looms larger, which is why he comes at a discount, but for Best Ball in particular we want to be drafting for upside.
Update: Watson took a designed run inside the 10 yard line in the first preseason game. We already liked his upside but seeing that play used in a preseason game is a great sign.
Kirk Cousins & Daniel Jones: These are two targets for us around pick 100. The Vikings got worse on defense this offseason and could be in a lot of shootouts. Kirk has a little bit more upside on DraftKings with the 300 yard bonus that he should hit pretty often, but we like him on any platform. The Giants added Darren Waller and should have the best group of pass catchers Daniel Jones has had in his career. We already know he has elite rushing upside, so if the passing game improves he could have a breakout season. It doesn’t hurt that we also love Waller and Slayton at their ADPs, so Jones makes for a great stacking option.
Late Round Targets: If you find yourself needing a QB in the last few rounds, we want you to be strategic in who you target. We would try to correlate these late round targets with pass catchers if possible. We would use our rankings while drafting these late targets, but keep in mind the context of your team. For example, if you have a stud QB and only plan to draft one other late QB, taking someone with less risk/slightly less upside is okay. If you miss out on the top QBs and have a duo like Kirk Cousins and Jordan Love, then you need to take a 3rd QB, and it makes more sense to shoot for higher upside with that pick. So here are the late-round QB options we’d recommend:
Sam Howell: Some beat writers have speculated that he will run away with the starting job. He has a decent group of weapons at his disposal and he’s capable of running, so he could provide some upside at his ADP. Higher risk/reward due to uncertainty on his job security.
Ryan Tannehill: The addition of DeAndre Hopkins should help ensure Tannehill keeps his starting job as long as he’s healthy. He’s a good QB2 to pair with a stud QB and he could provide some spike weeks with his rushing ability. Less risk/less upside.
Mac Jones: With Matt Patricia calling plays last year, the entire offense was a disaster aside from Rhamondre Stevenson. The Patriots brought back their former offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien, who should immediately help Mac Jones and the offense get back on track. We aren’t expecting a QB1 season out of him, but he’s often available in round 18 and he makes for a solid QB2 or QB3 depending on your build. Less risk/less upside.
Desmond Ridder: Ridder wasn’t the greatest prospect, but the Falcons seem to be handing him the keys to the offense, at least for the start of 2023. He has a great offensive line and elite weapons, so if he’s able to get the ball in their hands he could provide some upside. This is expected to be a run-first offense, but that expectation is fully baked into his ADP. Higher risk/reward due to uncertainty.
Jimmy Garoppolo: Jimmy G has never really flashed much of a fantasy upside. However, playing in the AFC West should cause the Raiders to be in shootouts if they want to remain competitive. He has some good weapons around him, so there’s always a chance he turns in a really solid season. Medium risk/medium upside.
Running Backs:
Early: Ekeler, Pollard
Mid: Montgomery, Cook, Robinson, Mitchell, Herbert, Warren
Late: Gainwell, Hubbard, Edwards, Kelley, Elliott, Fournette, Hunt
Austin Ekeler: After a brief holdout threat, the Chargers re-worked Austin Ekeler’s contract and they haven’t added any competition. We expect him to remain a PPR monster and we’re high on the Chargers offense this year as a whole due to Kellen Moore taking over as offensive coordinator.
Tony Pollard: While we do think there’s a risk of the Cowboys signing one of the veteran free agents, we’re already factoring that into our projections and Pollard still comes out as an elite play. We think Pollard has a lot of upside at the end of the 2nd round this year and has as good a shot as anyone to be a league winner this season.
David Montgomery: Even with the addition of Jahmyr Gibbs, the Lions paid David Montgomery a lot of guaranteed money. We expect them to use Gibbs all over, but Montgomery should at least have the Jamaal Williams role in a great offense and is a value where he’s going in drafts. He has additional upside if Gibbs gets hurt, but he may not even need that to be a smash at his ADP.
James Cook: Reports out of Bills camp so far are that Cook has been playing in a three down role and could see over 50% of the offensive snaps. He is the most explosive back they have and should also remain on the field in two minute situations with Hines out for the year. His upside is enormous playing in such a good offense.
Rashad Penny: Here’s a guy who has been absolutely elite whenever he’s on the field. Guys who have been labeled as injury plagued are often great picks in fantasy. There’s less predictive value to injury history than people think, and this is an extremely high upside role. It seems likely that he takes on the Sanders role, which would make him well worth taking ahead of his ADP. Penny is a potential league winner if he stays healthy.
Update: We removed Penny from the list of value RBs as we have more concerns that this backfield becomes a big time share. Gainwell moved up even more in our rankings and Penny dropped back around ADP.
Brian Robinson: This is a situation where the field probably wants more upside than they feel Robinson provides, so they’re letting him slip way too far. Washington’s offense is expected to be bad, but volume is king at running back. B-Rob was getting FED carries at the end of last season, and he could put up a lot of usable scores in fantasy if he continues to get that kind of work. We also think it’s quite possible that getting shot and missing significant time last year impacted his preparation and overall burst. He could surprise people this year with how well he plays.
Elijah Mitchell: Kyle Shanahan loves using Elijah Mitchell even though he has CMC as his lead back. We saw this last year when Mitchell returned from being out for two months and got more carries in his first game back than CMC. We like him as a zero RB target and he also has contingent (handcuff) upside if CMC goes down.
Jaylen Warren: Warren was able to take some of the work from Najee Harris during his rookie year, and we expect his role to grow this season. We like him as a zero RB target with contingent upside if something happens to Najee Harris.
Bears RBs: Unknown backfields can be some of the most profitable spots to target in fantasy. We expect Khalil Herbert to have the first shot as the lead, with Foreman potentially getting the goalline role. However, Roschon Johnson is an unknown rookie who the front office was high on. We are okay taking any of the Bears RBs this year at their current ADP and seeing how the backfield shakes out. Johnson seems like he offers the most upside at the lowest price, but he also has the lowest floor. If you take Herbert just a few rounds earlier you get the starter who could potentially have a monster season. One of the Bears RBs will likely end up looking like a steal at their current ADP. Our preference would be Herbert, then Johnson, based on the cost.
Update: We’re higher on Herbert and lower on Johnson after seeing preseason action where Herbert is clearly the RB1
Late Round Targets: In most Best Ball drafts, we like taking just 5 or 6 RBs. If you’ve already taken a few studs early on, then you can usually get away with just 5 RBs. If you’re not quite as strong at the position then we’d go with 6. You’d also want to go with 6 if you know you’re taking some high risk guys. For example, if you take a Bears RB it would be wise to add a 6th RB in case you guess wrong there. You don’t want to be down to just 4 RBs right out of the gate.
Kenneth Gainwell: We expect a rotation in the Eagles’ backfield, but we’ve already seen one front office give up on Swift. We’ve also seen Rashaad Penny’s inability to remain healthy for any significant stretch of games. We believe in Penny if he’s healthy and love his upside, but Gainwell is a cheap piece to target from one of the league’s best rushing attacks, and he could potentially benefit if either of the top two guys get injured or fall out of favor with the coaching staff. We’re very low on Swift, so it makes sense to take Penny and Gainwell at their prices.
Update: Gainwell looks even better after he appeared to be the RB1 in the first preseason game. It might be nothing, but it could also mean he’s going to be a league winner. People forget he had a massive workload at Memphis, and he can handle it if they want to give it to him.
Josh Kelley: Here’s a guy who keeps getting undervalued year after year, but the people who egregiously undervalue him get bailed out by a clean bill of health for Austin Ekeler. Eventually, Ekeler will miss a game. It hasn’t happened in two years, but we’re getting the backup running back in a super valuable offense at an ADP over 200, and he gets 5-10 carries and a couple targets even in games Ekeler plays (which has been all of them). Kelley is an awesome pick in Best Ball particularly, because he can get you some random good scores by scoring touchdowns, and if Ekeler gets hurt he’d have immense upside.
Chuba Hubbard: Hubbard was a very efficient runner last year in this offense and should have the backup role behind Miles Sanders. We expect him to mix in on early downs so he has a chance to provide some standalone value, with additional upside should Sanders miss games.
Gus Edwards: J.K. Dobbins is currently holding out due to contract disputes and has missed most of the last two years with knee injuries. While we don’t ever expect Gus to be in a workhorse role, we still expect him to be efficient in this offense and provide some spike weeks at minimal cost. He’s a Best Ball target only as you’d rarely use him in season-long redraft.
Free Agent Running Backs: With over a month remaining before the regular season, we like targeting free agents Leonard Fournette, Ezekiel Elliott, and Kareem Hunt late in drafts. The market tends to react quickly when someone signs with a team, so we’d expect to get some solid closing line value on these backs if you draft them before they sign somewhere. We think they are a better bet late in drafts than an unknown young RB that’s penciled in as an RB2 right now. We can be pretty confident these guys will have a role wherever they sign, and that role could increase as the season goes on if they’re playing well.
Wide Receivers:
Early: St. Brown, Ridley
Mid: M. Brown, Burks, Osborn
Late: Mims, Valdes-Scantling, Parker, Slayton, Atwell
Amon-Ra St. Brown: For a year and a half now, fantasy analysts have made arguments against St. Brown. Last offseason people said he was forced targets because everyone was injured. He dominated targets all season and they traded T.J. Hockenson. Now his competition for targets is a rookie TE and Jameson Williams (if and when he returns from a 6 game suspension). St. Brown is going in the early 2nd round and we think he is worthy of a first round pick. His advanced metrics are great and Goff loves to check down to his slot receiver. We think he’s about the safest pick on the board at his ADP and he has just as much upside as anyone as he’s playing for a team that surprisingly has top-10 Super Bowl odds.
Calvin Ridley: Ridley’s ADP has come screaming up into the top 30 in best ball sites, but we think he still has elite upside at this price. He goes at a range in the draft with running backs who are threatening to hold out, and WRs like Metcalf/Cooper/Allen. Those guys are good, but they’re really not in contention to be the overall WR1. Reports out of Jaguars camp are that Ridley is really showing them what a true WR1 looks like. Last time he played with Atlanta in 2020 he was a WR1 and we think he has the talent to finish that way again this year. The sky’s the limit for Ridley and you get to pick him in Round 3.
Marquise Brown: Last season, Hollywood was elite without D-Hop and was a WR1 through 6 games before suffering a foot injury. He’s currently not even being drafted in the top 30 WRs, which we think is an extreme mispricing. We are expecting Kyler Murray to miss some time, but this is causing Hollywood to be drafted way lower than he should be, and we want to take full advantage of that. When Kyler comes back, he should make Marquise a very strong weekly play at WR.
Treylon Burks: Burks adp has slipped into the 90s and we think he’s a value there. Sure, DeAndre Hopkins is the WR1 now, but him signing there makes the offense better and increases the likelihood of Tannehill starting most of the season. We expect an efficient season for Burks with spike week potential as the team’s main deep threat. Having more defensive focus going towards the WR1 could help him in his role. We think he’s perfect for Best Ball where you don’t have to know which weeks he’ll go off.
K.J. Osborn: Osborn is being overlooked this year because the team drafted Jordan Addison in the first round to replace Adam Thielen. What people don’t realize is that Thielen was 2nd in the NFL in routes run with 711. That’s a huge role to expect a rookie to walk right into. Osborn already has chemistry with Kirk Cousins and will at least play the same WR3 role he had last season, where he had some huge spike weeks. The defense got worse, so we expect the Vikings to be playing in a lot of shootouts, which should really benefit Osborn as the WR3.
Late Round Targets: There’s less of a separation in ADP between the mid-range guys and the late-round guys as we have WRs we want to be taking throughout the draft. Overall, there’s good options all over the place at WR and therefore you never need to reach too far. We’re ok with going 5-10 spots ahead of the ranking to grab these guys when they fit your build though.
Marvin Mims: We loved Mims as a prospect and didn’t love the landing spot at first due to his target competition. With Tim Patrick out for the year and KJ Hamler also out with a heart condition, Mims is already looking like the WR3 to start the year. He has elite speed and is a perfect fit for Russell Wilson, who loves to throw the deep ball. Mims’ ADP has been rising quickly, but we are still targeting him where he’s going now.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: This is a boring name to write up, but we expect MVS to lead the Chiefs WRs in snaps & routes. He has a unique skill set that the rest of the WRs don’t have, so he’s locked into his role. We don’t expect more than 4-5 targets per game, but they will be from Mahomes and they will likely be deep targets, and that’s exactly what we want in a best ball format.
DeVante Parker: Parker re-signed with the Patriots this offseason, which likely locks him into 2 WR sets. We like buying low on him after a down year for the Patriots offense under Matt Patricia last year. We like Parker over Tyquan Thornton who goes ahead of him in drafts. We don’t expect that to last as we get closer to the season and people realize Parker is their top outside receiver. Bill O’Brien seems like he could really get Parker going again, which would make him a steal at his ADP.
Darius Slayton: Similar to DeVante Parker, Slayton is the Giants starting outside wide receiver and he’s the 4th Giants WR off the board in drafts right now. We expect the offense to take a step forward with the addition of Darren Waller, and Slayton is a cheap piece currently available in the last two rounds of drafts. He led the Giants WRs in most countable stats last season, so it’s pretty surprising to see the market have no interest in him.
Tutu Atwell: It’s pretty shocking that Tutu is going at the very end of drafts (if he gets picked at all) when you consider that his speed gives him upside for some massive weeks. Reports out of training camp say that he’s really diversifying his route tree. The coaches have been saying he couldn’t play that many snaps last year because the other team knew he could only run a few different routes, so it ruined the element of surprise for the offense. If the reports are true that he’s now able to run all kinds of routes, then we could be looking at a guy who plays over half his team’s snaps and brings huge weekly upside. He could be the steal of the draft.
Tight Ends:
Early: Andrews, Hockenson, Waller
Mid: Dulcich, Everett, LaPorta
Late: Henry, Ferguson, Musgrave
Mark Andrews: Andrews is getting drafted near the same ADP he had last season. However, with the new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, we love targeting Lamar’s top weapon. The increase in target competition can be offset by more plays run in a faster paced offense, and hopefully more passing touchdowns.
T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson’s usage was fantastic after the trade to Minnesota last season. We expect the Vikings defense to regress, leaving them in a bunch of shootouts this season. Hockenson should benefit as the #2 option in the pass game after Justin Jefferson, at a significantly lower ADP and a more valuable position.
Darren Waller: Reports out of Giants camp have been great so far, and Waller is currently being drafted in the mid 70s. We expect his ADP to creep up as we get closer to the season and he’s the clear top option for Daniel Jones. We think he could be a big time league winner.
Greg Dulcich: Sean Payton has always utilized his tight ends throughout his career in New Orleans. He’s already had good things to say about Greg Dulcich and we expect him to keep the starting TE job. He was putting up some really solid expected numbers last season and was due for positive regression. We think he has big upside and is a steal at his ADP.
Gerald Everett: The TE role has always been valuable in Kellen Moore’s offenses in Dallas. We expect that to continue for the Chargers and think Everett is a great value at his current ADP. He was already very solid last year so we know his floor is high, and he could keep improving and boost his ceiling. Injuries within the offense could also increase his target share.
Sam LaPorta: We know the narrative on rookie TEs is that they take time to develop, Detroit has already lost Shane Zylstra so they’re going to need LaPorta out there right away. They don’t have many receiving options after Amon-Ra St. Brown and we expect LaPorta to have a good season. There’s more risk here than with Dulcich and Everett, but there’s a high ceiling.
Late Round Targets: We like targeting some of these tight ends late in drafts as they are likely going to be the TE1 on their team and that’s a better bet than taking an unknown WR or RB this late. We recommend having 3 TEs on every Best Ball roster, even if you take a stud early on, because you can always use the second best score in the Flex spot.
Hunter Henry: Henry is our favorite late TE target. Reports out of Patriots camp are that he’s been the top target so far. He is getting drafted after Mike Gesicki as of now, but we expect that gap to get smaller as camp reports remain positive. We’re very low on Gesicki and very high on Henry.
Jake Ferguson: Ferguson should have the starting role in Dallas and is solid all around. We like taking a shot on him late in drafts in hopes that he fully takes on the Dalton Schultz role from last year.
Luke Musgrave: Musgrave has been named the Packers starting tight end early in camp. The receiving options after Christian Watson are relatively unknown, so there’s hidden upside here for Musgrave if he’s able to emerge as a favorite target for Jordan Love.
Trey McBride: This Cardinals offense isn’t expected to be very good, but they weren’t very good last season and Zach Ertz averaged the third most expected fantasy points per game among all tight ends. There’s a very realistic scenario where McBride becomes the #2 option in this offense. When Kyler returns, the offense should improve, and if McBride has established himself in that role, he could be a league winner.
Update: Ertz is already returning, ahead of schedule, which drops McBride back down around his ADP.