Fortinet Championship Slate Breakdown
Just like that the PGA tour is back from what seemed like no break at all for the first event of the fall season! The Fortinet Championship will have two-time defending champion Max Homa returning to try to repeat again in 2023. This week is the traditional full field event with the top 65 and ties making it to the weekend. Since this tournament is the only one before the Ryder Cup in two weeks, we do not have the strongest of fields.
When looking for the best plays this week, I started with some of the key stats for Silverado. There was a high correlation for success with the golfers who can hit the ball long with good irons. Although it always makes it easier when the golfers hit the fairway off the tee, this week they can worry a little less and bomb the ball since the rough isn’t that thick. Lastly, you of course want guys that can finish the job and get the birdies, so putting becomes a relevant factor as well.
After factoring all of that in, Doug Ghim is a guy that really stands out at a great price of only $8k on DraftKings. Ghim is number 1 in the field this week in good drives and ball striking as well as 5th in App and 14th BoB. Currently we see Ghim at just less than 10% ownership, which makes him even more appealing for GPPs. Our team is in unison on this one, as we love locking in Ghim to start your lineups across all formats.
Another guy we like in the mid-tier this week is Chez Reavie. Reavie over the last few months seems to have his game in line, making 8 of his last 9 cuts. He also has the game that will fit this course. In this field over the last 24 rounds he ranks 1st in App, 6th in Good Drives, 6th in BS, and 23rd in BoB. Although he did miss the cut last year at this event he is playing better golf currently and makes for a great play. The price here is very appealing as well, as the 6k range gets very bleak on this slate as we wait for the KFT guys to join the field at the Sanderson Farms in around a month. This makes staying in the mid-tier or the low 7s a very ideal option for us on this slate.
The clear optimal stud play on this slate is two time champion Max Homa who really rounded into form to end the season. The only question with Max is whether or not he will be looking ahead to Rome for the Ryder Cup. He made each of his last six cuts to end the 2023 season, with four top-10 finishes and two top-20s. Homa is elite from tee-to-green, ranking top-10 in Greens in Regulation Gained and Strokes Gained Putting, and top-20 in Strokes Gained Approach. We also believe he is about 1k too cheap given that he has similar Vegas odds to the likes of Scheffler when he was priced way over 12k. Consider Homa an optimal option as your first man into lineups. Builds are very doable with him and he projects 10+ points better than anyone else on both sites.
The pivot for us up top would be to target one of the duo in Cameron Davis and Stephan Jaeger, who finished the 2023 season strong and both grade top-5 in our course fit model. Jaeger is the more accurate player off the tee between these two, but Cam would be the option that’s a better putter. We think Cam comes in with higher ownership between the two options, but the difference will be negligible if you start your lineups with these guys as opposed to the optimal Homa, or even Sahith just a tad below.
Speaking of Theegala, we think another route that a lot of lineups will take is to skip over the 10ks and start with Sahith for balanced constructions. If you want to target Theegala, we think the way to do this will be to get unique with the way you build up top. Given what we mentioned earlier about the 6k range being very bleak, we think the studs and scrubs construction is going to be less popular on this slate. People will try and pepper that mid-tier of pricing with so many great options available. Therefore, if you wanted to start with Max AND Theegala, and target the low 7s with the rest of your build, or even toss in a 6k play to get unique, this is a construction that allows you to employ Sahith in GPP formats. McCrilly, for one, will be using this approach on this slate. Sahith’s fatal flaw has always been being wayward off the tee, but this will matter a lot less here with the typical fairway percentage being sub 50% on this course. This means that Sahith will see much less penalty for taking a driver and getting a wedge in his hand. We know the upside Sahith can carry, and we think that in this Fall Swing he can capitalize on the weaker field and finally get that first win!
One other option up top that graded well for us and does not seem to be coming in overly chalky is Eric Cole. He profiles very similar to Theegala in that where he found the most trouble was with being inaccurate OTT last season. He is an elite iron player and putter, however, as he ranks top-10 amongst the field in Strokes Gained Approach and Putting, Opportunities Gained, and Putting from 5-10 feet. Cole comes in much lower owned than both Sahith and Max in our ownership projections, and makes for a very solid GPP pivot. I (Justin) plan to prioritize him in my GPP lineup on FanDuel, where I think he ends up as the only 11k stud at single digit ownership.
With the way builds go regardless, you will need some value options, and that range starts with Peter Kuest for us on this slate. Kuest will look to take advantage of his status in this fall swing, and he showed some serious game when given opportunities last season. Kuest ranks top-20 in opportunities Gained, Greens in Regulation Gained, and Putting from 5-10 feet, while being top-10 in Driving Distance, Proximity from 200+ yards, and Strokes Gained Putting. This is an ideal course for the stat profile Kuest displayed in his time last season, making him a great target for us in all formats.
The cheaper targets that we like on this slate include Ryan Palmer, Russell Knox, CT Pan, Nate Lashley, and Charley Hoffman. In deeper GPPs, we don’t mind Garrick Higgo or Luke List given their skillset of being long off the tee. Higgo is the preference given his recent stretch with the putter, but we have seen List find some success on courses like this in the past. You can use the projections to finalize your lineups and choose the guys that fit your contest type and how aggressive you’re trying to be with ownership.
Note that on FanDuel, List is really chalky, and most of our featured plays are projecting low owned. You can afford to swap out one of them and play a guy like List even in GPPs. You don’t have to full send the low owned squad, but you certainly can if you want to.