CPT/MVP Plays: Allen, Jackson, Henry, Flowers, Shakir, Kincaid
FLEX/UTIL: Cook, Coleman, Likely, Andrews, Hill, Bass, Bateman, Bills D/ST, Ravens D/ST, Samuel, Agholor, Hollins
We have a fun matchup here on Sunday Night Football with the Buffalo Bills visiting the Baltimore Ravens! These two teams are often very narrow in their distribution, which can mean there is a lot of uncertainty past the studs on how guys will perform. Buffalo has been willing to develop their game plan based on the defense they face, which in this game means we can expect it to lean towards the pass, as the Ravens have been looking like more of a pass funnel. Baltimore has been more dependent on game flow, and they will likely want to control the ball and keep Allen off the field, shaping up for a nice workload in the run game. Let’s get into it!
There are two guys who are far and away the most optimal CPT/MVP options, and those guys are Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Jackson would be the more optimal choice if we were to split it between these two, as he has had double-digit carries in 2 games this year, while Allen has yet to break that barrier. Outside of that, these two are very similar plays and each will have the offense heavily depend on them to have success. There’s not much else to say about either of these guys, and should be priorities for your lineups. There are options outside for GPPs in for those premium slots at the top of your lineup, Zay Flowers would be our next favorite. He has an elite 29% target share this season, over 10% higher than the 2nd receiver on the team. While he didn’t get much work last week, they got up big early and Jackson only threw 15 times. The other Raven to consider is Derrick Henry. He’d be a GPP option and not cash at CPT/MVP because he’s always been game script dependent without much of a pass-game role. As mentioned previously, we know Baltimore will want to establish the run so his floor isn’t as scary as some matchups, but early success will be key to him getting enough volume to smash, and lineups should be built accordingly if we use him as our CPT/MVP. The two other options on Bufflao would also be for GPPs only, with Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid getting that nod, as we think the Bills will skew pass-heavy against the Ravens D. Shakir leads the team in everything from a receiving standpoint (targets/receptions/yards) and has been functioning as the WR1 in this offense. With no clear go-to guy, all the pieces of the pass game are still reasonably priced which also plays in Shakir’s favor. It hasn’t been pretty for Kincaid, but he did find the endzone last week and leads the team with 3 redzone targets. His route participation hasn’t come down and he’s out there when they’re throwing, so this is a nice buy-low spot for him and could be considered for your CPT/MVP spot, but he would be the riskiest of everyone listed.
The Bills have only had James Cook on the field for 53% of snaps this year, but he has been pretty efficient. His fantasy output is boosted by having reached the endzone 4 times this year, but he does have a pass game role with 9 targets this year. The matchup is not quite as good as Henry’s, and we would prefer Henry with their ownership projections being very close, but Cook does have multi-TD upside and should be considered in the flex. The backup running back role has been split for Buffalo, and while that can be a nice spot to help differentiate in Showdown, we’re not looking there on the Buffalo side. Keon Coleman’s role in this offense is skewed by his 31% snap rate a week ago, when he was benched in the first quarter as punishment for being late, but he was at 91% the week prior. We’d expect it to be much closer to that Week 2 number, and he leads the team with a 12.3-yard aDOT. With expecting Buffalo to need to throw in this matchup, he is setup to be in a nice spot. His projected ownership is quite low too, so he could be a nice guy to differentiate with. Curtis Samuel has only been involved in 27% of the snaps for Buffalo, somewhat puzzling for a guy they paid good money to bring in this past offseason. His floor is much lower than we’d like for his price, but he is someone who will benefit when the Bills play a close game where they pass more, and can be in consideration due to that. So far Mack Hollins has been preferred to Samuel and has a snap rate of over 70% each of the last two weeks. He’s also second on the team with an 11-yard aDOT, and he comes in cheaper than Samuel. This has only resulted in 5 targets for Hollins, so he does still have a floor that can hurt you, but being on the field so much makes him usable with the price tag.
Moving over to the Baltimore side, it’s tough to figure out what is going on with Mark Andrews. He was on the field a ton in Week 1 and we chalked it up to Kansas City’s coverage designed to stop him which led to his quiet week so we weren’t concerned, but then last week ran a mere 4 routes the entire game. He still had great numbers last year before his injury, so it feels like we should still be able to expect him to be a great tight end. He is a very risky play, and last week showed he can have a 0-point floor, but when was the last time we could target Andrews when he was cheaper than guys like Shakir and Kincaid? The uncertainty around him, which is holding his ownership projection fairly low makes him usable in GPPs, but we would understand if this wasn’t a spot you wanted to go to. Rostering him would basically be a bet on talent at this point, and looking to take advantage of that before price and ownership rebound. Isaiah Likely is second on the team in target share at 18.6%. While he’s not blowing away the other receiving options outside of Flowers, he is more talented than them, and we have seen his ceiling. He would be our next favorite receiving option after Flowers from this team. We mentioned using the backup RB in Showdown has value, and Justice Hill fits the bill. He is used more as the receiving option out of the backfield as he has 12 targets this year but has a bit of a run-game role with 10 carries. While Henry would need to be used in builds built on a Ravens win while playing from ahead, Hill would be best served in rosters built the other way with them expected to chase the Bills. He can have some nice value when used this way. Rashod Bateman was finally healthy all preseason and it shows, as he’s been more in sync with the offense this year and has earned 13 targets, currently third on the team. He has been their downfield guy with an aDOT of 14.4 yards, and while you will pay for it, he has a better role than Hollins or Samuel to this point. He’ll probably need to connect with Jackson on a long bomb or score but can do that. The last receiving option for Baltimore is Nelson Agholor. He has been running routes pretty deep this year with an aDOT just behind Bateman at 12.8 yards, and while he does come off the field with they run 2 tight ends, is cheap enough to use as a punt if you need to.
When looking at the specialists for this game, none of them really separate themselves yet all four options are in play. The Ravens D/ST projects slightly ahead of the Bills D/ST because they are the favorites, but both teams have been fine at putting pressure on opposing offenses. Justin Tucker hasn’t been as automatic as usual this year and is 0/2 on 50+ attempts, but the offense should be able to generate enough scoring opportunities to give him multiple PATs and could also provide multiple FG attempts. Tyler Bass also hasn’t hit a 50+ yard bomb this year but also hasn’t had to attempt any with how efficient this offense has been, but he is also in consideration as both teams have a projected point total of over 20 points. Best of luck to everyone!