You can currently find this bet for +292 on Tailgate. We like it to +235.
The Argentines have shown throughout this tournament that they are a paper tiger. They create a ton of expected goals by putting guys in great position because of the system they run, but just don’t have the quality to finish at the rate we’re used to seeing from this South American power, and if they don’t get a moment or two of Messi Magic, they’re in trouble. While they held down the fort in group play, they’ve given up multiple goals in each knockout game, and this Swiss team is probably the best offensive team they’ve played, great at flooding the middle of the pitch and hitting you quickly once they get possession, not a strength for the Argentines at defending. We think this price just doesn’t account for how leaky Argentina has become, and we think Switzerland is the team disciplined enough to finally see them out of the tournament, creating a shock semifinal participant in the Swiss. Lock in on Switzerland!