Today is the unofficial start of the European soccer season with the UEFA Super Cup between PSG & Aston Villa at 3pm ET. This bet is +240 on FanDuel and we like it to +200. This line is +165 on DraftKings so there is great value here. Aston Villa lost 3 key starters from their squad last season, & their high profile off-season acquisition Johan Manzambi will not be in the lineup today. PSG has an expected squad value of almost $600 million more than AV today, expect them to control the game & launch plenty of shot attempts. These two teams faced off in April 2025 in the Champions League, PSG had 75% possession, 29 shot attempts, & 10 shots on target, leading to 8 goalkeeper saves for Aston Villa. PSG is essentially the same team they were back then, while the AV squad today has a value of almost $300 million lower compared to April 2025.
The books are often unsure how to price these niche markets for soccer matches, leading to large discrepancies between books like this where we can capitalize.