Tonight we’ll get to see the Little League Classic in Williamsport, Pennsylvania between the Phillies and the Nationals. The game will be played at Historic Bowman Field which plays a little bit smaller than most major league stadiums with left-field being just 323 feet. The history of the games played here by major league teams is small with just five, but eight or more runs have been scored in four of them. This gives the bats (especially right-handed) a slight bump, but nothing crazy like we saw in Mexico City or at Coors.
Pitching (DraftKings only):
Zach Wheeler gets the ball for the Phillies tonight in Williamsport. Wheeler has dominated right-handed hitters all season holding them to a .075/.230 line while striking them out at a 32.3% rate. Over the last month he’s had some struggles against lefties with a .187/.377 line allowed to them and just a 17.8% K rate. This K rate could improve though as his swinging strike rate against lefties over the last month still sits at a solid 12.6%. He will see six lefties from the Nationals, but his numbers against them aren’t that bad and only Dominic Smith and Keibert Ruiz have good numbers against his slider, which is the pitch that lefties have been hitting hard. Wheeler projects as by far our highest-scorer on the slate and is even the top pt/$ option despite being the highest-priced player on the slate. He’s the optimal captain on DraftKings tonight and is the best choice in GPPs as well. We’d rather see you get different with your bats than pass on Wheeler at captain. The top value reliever options from the Phillies tonight look to be Gregory Soto, Matt Strahm, and Craig Kimbrel.
Trevor Williams will start for Washington tonight and his outings against Philadelphia this season have not gone well for him. He’s allowed nine earned runs, including five home runs, in 9.2 innings against the Phillies this season. He’s gotten hit hard all year, but his numbers have gotten worse over the last month. Lefties hold a .295/.385 line against him over the last 30 days and righties have hit him even harder for a .336/.443 line. We project Williams to get outscored by multiple hitters and his pt/$ is the 2nd-worst on the slate. He isn’t a viable play unless you are trying to go super contrarian and play a barely owned pitcher. Jordan Weems, Hunter Harvey, and Jordan Weems are value reliever options from Washington tonight, but we prefer to use the Phillies’ arms if you’re going to use a reliever.
Hitting:
The highest-owned value bat on DraftKings projects to be Jake Cave who has solid numbers against righties on the season with a .203 xISO and a .231/.380 line against their four-seam fastballs. He’ll see some ownership on FanDuel as well, and we like him in all formats. Garrett Stubbs projects to be the highest-owned value bat on FanDuel with a little bit of ownership on DraftKings. His numbers are extremely uninspiring and even in this solid matchup he’s nothing more than a punt if you need it to save salary. Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, and Bryce Harper all unsurprisingly look great in this matchup and will see similar ownership on DraftKings as the highest-owned stud bats. On FanDuel, Schwarber/Harper in some order as MVP and STAR looks to be optimal with Castellanos being a great GPP option. Harper is starting to see his power stroke come along and now has a .206/.394 line against right-handed pitching while Schwarber holds a .237/.351 line against them. Schwarber has owned Williams in his career with a .392/.417 line against him in 45 career plate appearances. These two can be considered GPP captain options on DraftKings since Wheeler is clearly the optimal choice. Castellanos also has great career numbers against Williams with a .239 xISO against him in 33 career plate appearances. Brandon Marsh and Bryson Stott are two cheaper bats that rank near the top of our pt/$ rankings tonight. Marsh projects to be higher-owned on both sites with a much larger gap on FanDuel. The guy we haven’t mentioned yet that seems to be going overlooked tonight is Trea Turner. It’s been a tough first season in Philadelphia for him but he’s starting to turn it around including two home runs in one inning yesterday. Over the last 13 games he has a wRC+ of 209. He doesn’t project to see much ownership on either site tonight and comes in as our 4th-highest projected bat and our top pt/$ play on FanDuel. He’s yet another Phillie who has great career numbers against Williams with a .313/.417 line against him in 22 plate appearances. He’s a fantastic GPP play on both sites, especially as he’s been moved up to second in the order on a night where Philadelphia should put runs on the board. He’s a GPP option in the MVP or STAR slots on FanDuel as well and could be the biggest edge on this slate in GPPs.
Dominic Smith projects to be the highest-owned Nationals bat on both sites tonight, but with most of the attention on the Phillies, he still won’t be high-owned in general. Wheeler’s slider is what’s been giving him some trouble against lefties over this last month and Smith has hit this pitch for a .205 xISO. He ranks as a solid pt/$ play on the slate as one of the few lefties that could get to Wheeler. CJ Abrams and Keibert Ruiz are two of the highest-upside bats for Washington and neither are projecting to see much ownership on either site because people would rather pay for Phillies bats. Ruiz has stronger hitting numbers against right-handed pitching with a .183/.346 line overall and a solid .266/.426 line against their sliders, but Abrams has great stolen base upside with 33 on the season and no JT Realmuto behind the plate for the Phillies. Blake Rutherford is another value option from this lineup that on DraftKings projects as one of our top pt/$ plays but also projects to see much less ownership than someone like Cave or Stubbs. On FanDuel he doesn’t grade out as nearly the same value.
Conclusion: Zach Wheeler is the optimal captain on this slate and is probably the best option in GPPs as well. You can differentiate by playing him in the flex with someone like Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, or Trea Turner as your captain, but we wouldn’t recommend fading Wheeler unless looking to go extremely contrarian. On FanDuel, the combination of Schwarber/Harper in the STAR and MVP slots will be optimal, but mixing in someone like Turner or Castellanos along with one of them will help you differentiate.