Optimal Plays: Scheffler, Morikawa, Cole, List, Davis
GPP Plays: Homa, Cantlay/Schauffele, Henley, Theegala, Glover, Kirk, McCarthy, Poston
Just like that the golf offseason is over! We are back with the first tournament of 2024 in Kapalua. Although we are back, this tournament is a no-cut event that will see a record 59 golfers playing this week. We are expecting another birdie fest once again this year after we saw Jon Rahm (now on LIV) put up a score of -27, which bested Morikawa by 2 strokes.
Since we expect another birdie fest we are looking for the golfers this week that are able to consistently put themselves in position to score with their irons as these greens are some of the biggest on tour. When you talk about great iron play it’s hard to not think of Collin Morikawa who ranks 7th in the field in approach to go along with 11th in BoB and 5th in BS. Over his career here at Kapalua he has produced an impressive 65 under par. Even with his stats and course history, he is only priced at $9,100 making him a great way to start your lineups this week as he looks to avenge a brutal collapse in the final 9 holes from last year at this very event.
Another piece in this price range that has more appeal in GPP formats will be Max Homa, who has steadily improved his play at this event over the years, reaching a new best with a T3 last year. Max Homa has one of the most balanced games of any golfer in this field, being rock solid from T2G, while also being ranked top-10 in Strokes Gained Putting. Homa’s ability to roll putts combined with improved wedge play makes him very live at this event, and we expect him to continue his success at this course this week if you want to take a more balanced approach and skip the studs in the 10k range.
The next guy that stands out is, to no surprise, Scottie Scheffler, who comes in as the highest priced golfer this week but also ranking on top of the model. Scheffler is 1st in Approach, 1st in BS, 3rd OTT, and 10th in BoB. Last year he also was pretty impressive here finishing in a tie for 7th at -21 where he picked up 4.7 strokes on the field. The obvious pivot from Scottie could be deemed as Victor Hovland, but this course hasn’t really been his cup of tea over the years for some reason. His improved short game could make this the year he turns the corner, but we would actually prefer jumping a bit down the board and starting lineups with a Max Homa, or even one of the disgusting brothers (Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay). These two grade very similarly for us, as both have balanced games. If there was a lean, we would probably go slightly towards Cantlay because of how hot we know he can get with the flat stick. Scottie is an optimal start, but if you find yourself wanting to employ a balanced approach with 2-3 9k guys, these are great options to start with.
One of the most optimal value plays on this slate is going to be Eric Cole. Cole will benefit from the fact that his biggest weakness is keeping the ball in play OTT, which will not be a problem at this course where one can go as wayward as they desire with massive fairways and minimal penalty. Cole also has the tendency to get red hot with the putter. He is priced down way too cheap for the abilities he showed last season, which will draw a ton of attention to him as a value piece. Cole ranks top-10 in Strokes Gained Approach, Birdie or Better Gained, Opportunities Gained, and Strokes Gained Putting. We would employ him in optimal formats this week. If you want a much lower owned pivot that profiles rather similarly, Sahith Theegala is the McCrilly special of the week. Theegala, similar to Cole, really benefits when there is a ton of room to operate off the tee and you can rely on your irons and short game to score. This is why we saw him find success in his first trip around Augusta, and even at LACC last season. The stats will not lead anyone right towards Sahith versus some of these other plays in the value tier, but that is why we think he sneaks in very low owned despite his high ceiling. Theegala has a great short game, ranking top-5 in Strokes Gained Putting amongst the field, and as improved his wedge play over the course of his young career. If you feel frisky, we believe Sahith is a great way to differentiate yourself this week.
If you are going to play some of these higher priced guys you need to find some value this week. One guy who stands out as a great GPP play is Luke List. He is priced near the minimum at $6,200 and as we have seen he is a guy who can make birdies in bunches when he gets his putter going. List ranks 7th in the field in BoB and 9th OTT. He played here last year and he finished 11th despite losing 2.1 strokes on the green. Even if he can repeat his performance from last year he will easily hit value this week and provide flexibility with his discounted price. If he can get hot with his putter he can provide tremendous upside this week!
Some other good value options we like to round out your lineups are Davis, McCarthy, Poston, and Henley.
One more player I want to address before wrapping this is Ludvig Aberg. I project him as one of the highest owned players on the slate, but we’re not really a fan of using him. This course tends to not be as kind to newcomers because of all the massive undulation changes and green slopes. In theory his game makes sense here if he gets the putter rolling, but I’d pass if he’s chalk, which I believe he will be. Stick to the studs we wrote about as there are plenty of good options that won’t be as chalky.