Optimal Plays: McCaffrey, Purdy, Samuel, Moody, Mitchell
Top GPP Plays: Jones, Breida, Kittle, Slayton, Campbell, Robinson, Bell
Week 3 finally gives us our first scheduling dud, as the 49ers are 10.5-point home favorites over the San Francisco 49ers. We saw the Giants get trounced to open the season on SNF against the Cowboys, and then lay an absolute egg in the first half against the Cardinals. Was that second half comeback enough to galvanize the team and rally the troops to pull off an upset in San Francisco? Probably not. How do you get the doors blown off in a season-opener at home against your most hated rival, and then turn around and have an embarrassing first half against a team that is legitimately trying to lose football games? Probably because you stink.
Anyway, we’re here to talk about the DFS slate, which should feature a lot of 49ers onslaught builds since the Giants have virtually nobody outside of Daniel Jones that can be relied upon for fantasy. The chalk build of course starts with Christian McCaffrey at captain. He comes in with an absurdly high price tag, but it’s well warranted. He’s parlayed 48 touches into 304 total yards and two touchdowns over the first two games. He’s currently -220 to score a touchdown, which are incredible odds. Kyle Shanahan has said that the running back rotation so far has been a mistake, indicating that he wants less of a workload on McCaffrey. While there is likely merit to these statements, it doesn’t change the fact that McCaffrey has an elite workload in a plus matchup. Opposing backs have had their way with New York so far, as Tony Pollard totaled 82 yards and a touchdown against New York, while James Conner had 106 yards and a touchdown last week.
We have to sift through coach speak every NFL season, but I truly think there’s merit to Shanahan’s interest in getting Eli Mitchell more touches. We saw Mitchell split work with McCaffrey in games last year when he was healthy. McCaffrey has had a very large workload to start the year, so it makes sense to scale back on him in this spot and get Mitchell more involved. Even if the 49ers lean on McCaffrey early, Mitchell is only $2,400, and could easily just handle work in garbage time to salt away the game if SF has a big lead. Mitchell makes a lot of sense as an optimal value play, and could also be a large-field option at captain if you want to get really contrarian, although our hesitation with value captains on a slate like this is that you’re likely to end up duped. There just aren’t enough studs to pay up for with the salary you save, so you’ll end up on one of just a few builds. This makes Mitchell an optimal flex play, but probably a suboptimal captain. If the Giants’ offense falls on it’s face and can’t keep up, Shanahan could put McCaffrey on the shelf and let Mitchell run wild. Even if the game is closer we’d expect Mitchell to be a part of the rotation tonight. Rostering McCaffrey and Mitchell together in your lineups is optimal, and highly suggested if you go for an onslaught build where the Giants offense can’t hang. If you have the guts to fade CMC, which I do think is viable, then you of course want Mitchell for the added upside of an injury to the megachalk RB which would make Mitchell optimal for sure.
Daniel Jones had a complete turnaround in Week 2 compared to Week 1, posting 34.74 DraftKings points in the comeback victory over the Cardinals. The absence of Saquon Barkley could lead to New York deploying a more pass-heavy approach, while utilizing Jones as a runner as well. Jones may be under duress tonight though, which isn’t great for his outlook. He’s averaged just 4.0 yards per attempt while throwing two interceptions against pressure this year. However, everyone has the Week 1 drubbing against Dallas in their minds, which has led to the SF D/ST being priced up, and they’re expected to see a good bit of ownership. The increased pressure could just give Jones more opportunities to scramble, which could increase his upside. Obviously his poor numbers under pressure aren’t ideal, but based on where ownership is falling, the edge would be to side with Jones as opposed to the SF defense. Paying up for expensive, chalky defenses is historically a very poor choice. And anytime we can get a running QB at reasonable ownership, I think we have to do it.
For Jones’ weapons, Darren Waller is his top option, but he has a tough matchup. His role is elite, as he led the team in routes run and team target share last week. This 49ers’ defense has been shutdown against tight ends for years now, allowing just 6.2 and 6.5 yards per target to opposing tight ends in 2022 and 2021, respectively. They’ve allowed a combined 15 yards and a touchdown on four catches to Tyler Higbee and Pat Freiermuth on the year. Waller is more talented than those two, but this still isn’t a good matchup, and it’s not like he’s going to be super low owned because he’s the only reliable stacking option for people who play Jones.
The trio of Isiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton, and Parris Campbell make up the mid tier, and aren’t exactly the most enticing options. Last week the targets were basically split between the three, with Hodgins seeing five, and the other two seeing six. Hodgins is the most expensive, and he runs 87% of his routes on the perimeter. Slayton also spends a lot of time on the outside with 59% of his routes from the perimeter, and that has been a somewhat attackable spot for offenses against San Francisco. They’ve allowed the third-highest catch rate to opposing boundary receivers, but are in the middle of the pack in yards per catch. Campbell runs about 82% of his routes from the slot, where SF has been exploitable as well. They’ve allowed the third-most DraftKings points to opposing slot receivers on the year. With Jones potentially dealing with pressure, we could see some quick, low aDOT passes to campbell.
Without much conviction, I’d rank the trio (price included) Slayton → Campbell → Hodgins, with Slayton and Campbell being somewhat of a toss-up, but Hodgins firmly in third. So what does this mean? Waller has seen a lot of volume, but has a difficult matchup. The receivers look like the path of least resistance, but none are talented enough to instill confidence, and none command a far greater target share than the other. We could see Jones spread it around, and we know his upside is largely due to his legs anyways. Using Jones without any of his pass catchers is certainly a viable strategy on this slate. He can even be captained without any of his pass catchers as he could easily run his TDs in or throw TDs to completely random, unowned players.
Wan’Dale Robinson is $200 on DraftKings and expected to make his season-debut tonight. His role is entirely up in the air, as he’s coming off of a torn ACL in the middle of last season. He saw 13 targets in the game where he got hurt, so we know he has the ability to earn targets. It’s unclear how much he’s going to play, and he very likely could be a 0. However, at $200, he doesn’t need much to pay off. Also, with how condensed these offenses are, playing Robinson allows you to fit some extra studs (likely from SF) who boasts probably the most condensed offense in the league.
The Giants’ backfield is pretty disgusting tonight with Barkley out, but Matt Breida leads the way with Gary Brightwell likely working in as well. Breida and Brightwell have 18 and 13 snaps on the year. In one game where Barkley missed last season, Breida saw eight targets, catching seven balls for 12 yards, and had four carries for 28 yards. Breida is a viable pairing with Jones as we know he runs a lot of routes when he’s out there. He’ll be lower owned than the other mid-tier options, which makes him a nice GPP play. We’d still rather play Kittle without a question, but Breida is a viable pivot play. Brightwell is pretty expensive, and he’d need an actual role to pay off his salary, so we aren’t too interested given that there’s a good chance he has a tiny role and you’re immediately drawing dead if you played him.
Brock Purdy salvaged his score last week with a rushing touchdown, posting 14.74 DraftKings points. He didn’t find the end zone through the air for the first time in the regular season as a starter. Purdy is likely to find success here, as the Giants are the only team in the NFL without a sack and are 20th in pressure rate. Brandon Aiyuk is going to miss this contest, which dings his outlook a little bit. However, he still has elite weapons at his disposal in McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle.
Samuel caught six of nine targets for 63 yards while running for 38 yards and a touchdown on five carries last week. He finished with 22.1 DraftKings points, and it would’ve been more if Purdy hadn’t missed him for a walk-in touchdown. Samuel is honestly the bane of my existence, as he consistently outperforms his expected fantasy points every year by a wide margin. However, we should see a heavy dose of him tonight. With Aiyuk off the field since 2021, Samuel has been targeted 36 times on 90 routes run, good for a 40% rate. It’s unclear how much of a passing attack will be needed, as the 49ers are double-digit favorites. However, Samuel doesn’t need much volume to pay off as he is a big play waiting to happen.
Kittle has seen an uptick in usage with Aiyuk off the field as well, with a target on 27% of his routes with Aiyuk off the field since 2021. The Giants have allowed the second-most targets to in-line tight ends this year, which is where Kittle runs over 50% of his routes. Things are brewing for a Kittle explosion week on Thursday night, and his price tag is very affordable. We absolutely love him in this spot and think he should be in all lineups.
Jauan Jennings has primarily been San Francisco’s slot receiver but will likely see an expanded role tonight with Aiyuk out. His price is a little too expensive in my opinion, as he’s simply not heavily utilized in the offense. He likely needs to find the end zone to pay off, and I can give you a free bet here: RGP is taking the under on his receiving yards at 31.5.
Another overpriced receiver I forgot to mention before is Jalin Hyatt, who costs $5,200 despite seeing just three targets on the year. He’s somehow third on the team in air yards share, but he’s not on our radar tonight. Most of those air yards were just balls that Jones chucked in the air. Credit Hyatt for making some great plays, but he’s never the first read and doesn’t have enough of a role to justify this price tag. On FanDuel he’s cheaper but we still wouldn’t play him because rookies with hype like this are always overowned early in the season despite having minimal roles.
Ronnie Bell is $200 on DraftKings tonight and we think he will see an uptick in snaps with Aiyuk out. Bell ran a route on 25% of the dropbacks in Week 2, with all of them being on the perimeter where Aiyuk has run nearly 76% of his routes. It’s unclear how this will shake out. Jennings could see an uptick in routes, or he could stick primarily to the slot while Bell takes most of the outside routes. Regardless, Bell should have a far greater role, and he’s just $200. We don’t know much about his ability to earn targets, and it’s unclear how much San Francisco will need to pass the ball, but at this price he’s a very intriguing play. With Mitchell at just $2,400 and looking like a very strong play, and Robinson also the minimum price and a viable option, Bell is nowhere near a lock, but all those other options could keep his ownership in the single digits. He makes a lot of sense in GPP builds and even in optimal builds if you need someone that cheap.
Jake Moody has had a great start for San Francisco, with back-to-back 14-point performances. He’ll likely be a popular option tonight, and he makes a lot of sense in optimal builds as San Francisco should have many scoring opportunities. Graham Gano will be far less owned, and makes more sense in GPPs if opting to use a kicker.
Conclusion: Most lineups will start with Christian McCaffrey, and that is totally fair, as he is the top projected option on the slate and has had a monstrous workload. However, we think Eli Mitchell sets up great tonight, and there’s a ton of appeal to playing them together or fading CMC to be unique. If the Giants fall flat on their face and SF goes up 21-0 from guys who aren’t McCaffrey, they could just shelf him for the rest of the game and let Mitchell handle the bulk. George Kittle and Deebo Samuel both get a bump with Aiyuk out. We love Kittle tonight, but both options are viable. Ronnie Bell is a viable punt option as well to free up some salary. We could see Daniel Jones use his legs more and spread it around a bunch through the air. It’s certainly viable, and probably optimal, to use him without any of his pass catchers, but you can pair him with one or two in GPP builds.