CPT/MVP Plays: Gibbs (Optimal), Prescott, Jam. Williams, Jav. Williams, Lamb, Kennedy (GPP value)
FLEX/UTIL: Goff, Pickens, Ferguson, Montgomery, Aubrey, Bates, TeSlaa, Cowboys D/ST, Turpin (GPP), Kennedy (optimal value), Dwelley
Week 14 kicks off with what feels like a must-win game for both the 7-5 Detroit Lions and the 6-5-1 Dallas Cowboys. Vegas has the Lions as slight 3-point favorites at home while the game total is set at a monstrous 54.5 points. Worth noting that our team is betting on the Cowboys to win this game, and a build favoring the Cowboys will probably be more unique, so keep that in mind as you contemplate your builds.
Jahmyr Gibbs has dominated all season long, putting up 118 all-purpose yards a game while tacking on 13 touchdowns (10 rush, 3 receiving) through 12 games. Since Dan Campbell has taken over play-calling in Week 10, Gibbs has seen his weekly touches go from 17.7 a game to 21 a game, and while there is the chance that he does not hit that number of 21 touches in this showdown, it shows us that Dan Campbell wants the ball in Gibbs’ hands as much as possible. If you needed any more reason to play Gibbs, Lions WR1 Amon-Ra St. Brown is considered a game-time decision for tonight’s game, and looks to be on the wrong side of questionable. With Sam LaPorta already on the IR, Jared Goff will be working with a receiving corps he isn’t accustomed to, and we expect him to take advantage of still having his RB1 on the field, feeding him the ball frequently. He was already taking over a lot of the usage LaPorta was getting, and it’d make sense for them to continue to use him in the short passing game. We expect Gibbs to have a big game today with this passing role, as on the ground, the Cowboys come in as the 20th-ranked rush defense in the league, but they have been better since the trade deadline. He is projected to be highly owned, and there is good reason for that with this expected role, but there are a lot of higher-priced guys we like in this game, especially on the Cowboy side, so we get it if you want to look elsewhere and bet on the Lions struggling to move the ball.
Coming into this one, Dak Prescott has the second-most passing yards and second-most passing touchdowns in the league. While the Cowboys’ defense has struggled this season, the offense leads the league in total yards as well as passing yards on the shoulders of Dak. Dak has been extremely consistent this season, as he has only thrown for less than 250 yards twice on the season, and he looks to keep this streak alive against a mediocre Lions defense. With the game total sitting at 54.5, we expect this game to be a high-scoring one, and we love playing the QB on the best passing offense in the league. Dak makes a lot of sense as a GPP captain for a team we expect to score a lot of points, and seems to be forgotten in projected ownership for that spot.
Jared Goff comes into this game averaging 252 yards a game through the air and adds on 25 touchdowns as well. However, Goff might be working with a depleted receiving corps today as his #1 WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is looking unlikely ahead of TNF. Unfortunately, this is not the only injury to the Lions offense as TEs Sam LaPorta and Brock Wright will also miss this one, along with WR Kalif Raymond. With all of this said, how do we feel about Goff? Well, it is obviously not ideal to play a game with half of your skill position starters not on the field, but we feel that Goff still has the tools to put up good numbers in this one. We do have a slight worry that Dan Campbell will game plan to run the ball excessively in this matchup, taking the ball out of Goff’s hands and letting his WRs do the work. If this game is a shootout, we feel that Goff is a viable play, but do express caution simply based on the injuries to the rest of the offense, and there are paths to failure here. We would avoid him as a CPT/MVP choice, but he can be a flex play in builds for this game to stay close.
Javonte Williams is in the middle of a career season, working as the true workhorse back in Dallas, playing 76% of offensive snaps and putting up 90 all-purpose yards a game. Williams has been fed the ball all year, taking an average of 16.5 handoffs a game, but this number has increased even more to 19.6 handoffs a game in the last 3 contests. Ironically, despite the workload increase, there’s some concern out there that Malik Davis is cutting into his role. This really isn’t true at all, but Davis just so happened to house a long touchdown last week, and in his limited carries, he’s found quite a lot of room to run lately, giving people the impression that he’s more involved than he really is. The reality is, he’s taking 3.3 carries per game over the last 3, which is nothing to worry about at all. The Lions have had a middle of the pack run defense this year, letting up 103.7 yds/g (11th), and they are pretty banged up defensively, so we expect Williams to have a solid game against them. He’s probably one of the lowest priority plays for most people because of all the exciting studs on this slate, so he could end up pretty low owned even though he’s a workhorse in a projected high-scoring game. He makes for one of the best GPP options on the slate.
Moving on to the arguably best WR room in the league, we want to highlight the following players from the Cowboys: Ceedee Lamb, George Pickens, Ryan Flournoy, and KaVontae Turpin. Ceedee Lamb is coming off a monster game on Thanksgiving, where he caught 7 of his 9 targets for 112 yards and a touchdown. Even with the emergence of George Pickens in this Cowboys offense, Lamb has not missed a beat this season, averaging 83 receiving yards a game while seeing an insane 28% of the target share. When we look at air yards, Lamb is seeing 42% of the share, making him an excellent candidate to come down with a deep ball for lots of yards and a potential score. We feel confident playing Ceedee as one of the best studs on this showdown. George Pickens is having the best season of his career as he sits second in the NFL with 1142 receiving yards (95 yds/g) and third in the league with 8 receiving touchdowns. Pickens is facing an ideal matchup tonight against a Lions defense that plays man coverage more than anyone else in the league (42.8%), and Pickens has feasted on man coverage this season, leading the league with 463 yards against it. It’s hard to find anything to dislike about the Cowboys’ passing stack in this matchup. We recommend staying away from Ryan Flournoy in this showdown simply because his usage in the past 6 games has been so low, seeing only 1.5 targets a game. This, paired with his high price tag for someone seeing so little usage, makes us prefer taking a shot with KaVontae Turpin. We like Turpin in this one as a GPP play only, but given his recent usage, he has real upside to pop tonight. In the last 4 games, Turpin has averaged 3 touches a game (6 rushes, 6 catches) for 32 all-purpose yds/g. While we don’t expect him to be touching the ball 10+ times in this game, he has the chance to break away for some good points, making him a great value for GPPs and a better punt play than Flournoy.
The last Dallas skill position player we want to mention is Jake Ferguson, who has cooled down after his hot start to the season. Over the last 4 games, Ferguson has averaged 4.75 catches for 40.5 yds/g and 1 touchdown. Given Ferguson’s output as of late, the higher price tag he carries into this matchup is not very appealing. We feel as though Ferguson is a touchdown-reliant play in this one and caution playing him due to his low floor.
Moving back across the field to the Lions pass catchers, we want to highlight: Jameson Williams, Isaac TeSlaa, and Tom Kennedy. Jameson Williams is expected to step into the WR1 role for the second straight week. Last week, Williams caught 7 of his 10 targets for 144 yards and a touchdown, filling into the WR1 role extremely well. Williams saw his target share jump from 17% on the season to 37% last week, and we expect this number to stay high with the rest of the receiving corps banged up. We love Williams in this showdown as the Lions’ WR1. Because he is underpriced for the role he could see, he’s going to be very popular, especially at captain, so make sure to keep that in mind and find a spot or two to get unique in your builds if using him in your premium roster spot. Isaac TeSlaa saw a season high 92% (season avg. 25%) of snaps last week when ARSB and Kalif Raymond left the game. TeSlaa made the most of the extra opportunity as he caught both targets for 35 yards and a touchdown. If ARSB remains sidelined in this matchup, we love TeSlaa and feel he is a viable play. Tom Kennedy is a great value play on both sites. Last week, he was thrust into his first game of the season, getting 65% of offensive snaps, which he made the most of. Kennedy caught all 4 of his targets for 36 yards, and if ARSB misses this game, he will most likely be their #1 slot option in tonight’s game, and acted the most like a direct replacement for Sun God’s route tree. While his usage will plummet if ARSB is cleared, we feel he is viable if he remains sidelined. One more guy to mention is Ross Dwelley, as he took over the TE1 role for Detroit last week, but he was hardly used. They may change the plan a bit this week and get him more involved, and he’ll certainly be lower owned than Kennedy and TeSlaa, but he’s an inferior play. You’ll really be hoping he catches a touchdown, which is definitely possible given the way the Lions like to use their TEs in the red zone. He’s a risky pivot, but worth a mention.
David Montgomery is the last Lions skill position player that we want to highlight in tonight’s showdown. Montgomery has been cemented behind Gibbs this season as the RB2, but this has not stopped him from racking up 58 all-purpose yds/g this season while tacking on 6 scores. As we mentioned earlier, there is a world where Dan Campbell chooses to run the ball more than usual in this game because the receiving corps is so injured. If this does happen, Montgomery could be in line for more carries than his usual 10 a game to help save Gibbs’ legs. With all this being said, Montgomery has been a touchdown-reliant back in DFS, and with the high price tag he’s carrying for that role, he is a very risky play in this showdown. We are not saying to stay away from him completely, but be cautious in the kind of builds you use him, keeping him on rosters that are built for the Lions to play from ahead.
The Lions’ defense is averaging 2.7 sacks a game while also having 1.1 takeaways per game this season, but we don’t think they are a strong play for this game. They are incredibly beat up, and the injuries have been taking their toll, so with how good the Cowboys are on offense, we’d just stay away. The Cowboys D/ST has been getting better pressure since the trade deadline, and with how bad Goff is at handling pressure, it makes them a viable play. For our kickers, Jake Bates has gone 40/42 on extra points this season and 16/20 on field goals. Brandon Aubrey has gone 37/38 on extra points this season and 22/24 on field goals. With both kickers hitting at a high percentage and teams having high-powered offences, and each being allowed to bomb often from long range this year (Bates has attempted seven 50+ yarders, Aubrey has eight), both are viable to play in this showdown.
Good luck tonight, and as always, if there are any questions, we will be in Discord to answer them!