The UFC heads back to the apex for a night of entertaining fights where only two fights are favored to go the distance. Those two fights are Viana vs Lucindo and Miller vs Santos. The most notable fights that are favored to end inside the distance are McKinney vs Breeden (-1100), Buys vs McGhee (-400) and Rountree vs Daukaus (-650). The biggest favorite on the card is Fremd at -325 so we should be in for a night of competitive fights. Our goal on this slate is to identify good and bad chalk as well as finding good leverage spots in GPPs.
The fighters projecting to be above 30% owned are RDA, McKinney, Luque, Blackshear, Amorim, Rountree and McGhee. Of these fighters, we like getting exposure to McKinney, Luque, Blackshear and McGhee. McKinney has tons of upside in the first round both on the feet and on the ground, but he is taking this fight on short notice. He takes a step down in competition in this fight after two straight losses but we believe he can get the job done in this one. Luque has taken a long lay off after suffering a brutal loss to Neal. He was forced into a long lay off after they found bleeding in his brain after the fight. He has spoken in interviews about taking the time off to change up his game as he believes he was starting to become very predictable. He said he has put a lot of time into his grappling training so we could see him utilize that part of his game more often. He leads the ufc in cage time and has fought at a very high level for a long time. If he can surprise RDA with a new game plan we havent seen from him, we believe he can get the job done. In cash games we would rather play RDA, but in gpps we believe Luque is the play in that fight.
Blackshear is a RGP staple as we have been on him ever since he got into the ufc. We are going back to one of our favorite fighters as he has a favorable matchup here. We believe he can find a finish here in the first or second round. McGhee faces a guy who has been knocked down 8 times in 3 fights in the ufc. Its really a no-brainer to get some exposure to him even at his price because of the knockdown potential, but Buys does have good wrestling and may be able to take him down. If you are only playing one lineup, McGhee is fadable because he may be in defensive grappling situations not scoring any points. The leverage play would be to fade McGhee, but if playing multiple lineups we would throw him in at least one of them due to his high ceiling. Rountree and Amorim should get the job done, but we believe their DFS upside is limited, making them viable fades. They project as some of the best plays based on mean outcomes, however within their respective matchups we believe the ceiling is not what projections make it out to be. Dawodu is someone we can pivot to instead of using Rountree and Amorim.
The mid range fighters on this slate are ones that we believe should be targeted in gpps. Blackshear, Marshall and Santos are our favorite fighters here. Santos is projecting to be lower owned because it’s favored to go the distance, but we like using her on this slate. She should be the fighter who is advancing forward with her attacks, primarily with takedowns and top control. Santos looked way better during weigh-ins where Miller looked like she had a very tough weight cut.
For value on this slate we like targeting Dobson, Viana, Parisian and Buys. I want to start with Buys because it may seem like a very bad idea to roster a guy who has been knocked down so many times in the ufc already. However, if he is able to land a takedown early he can certainly finish this fight with a submission in the early going. His opponent has been submitted before in the first round. Buys is certainly only a gpp play but it feels like he has potential to be a slate breaker here. Dobson should be able to take advantage of his wrestling in this fight and his opponent also missed weight. Dobson needs a win here to keep his UFC dreams alive, similar to Buys. Viana has plenty of finishes in the early stages of fights and she should be able to grapple a fair amount in this fight. Look for her devastating arm bar during the grappling exchanges. Parisian is a guy who wins fights with his ground game. In the smaller Apex octagon we are really targeting our wrestlers tonight. Parisian is not our favorite play in this range, but he is viable if entering multiple lineups.
In conclusion, our favorite plays in the top tier of fighters are McKinney and Dawodu. In the mid range we like Blackshear, Marshall, Santos, and Luque. Blackshear, Marshall and Luque may be on the chalkier side, but if you wanted to go the Santos route she will likely be lower owned than the other three we mentioned. For value we touched upon guys like Dobson, Viana, Parisian and Buys as our gpp dart.