Cash: Medic, Cepo, Oliveira, Rebecki
GPP: Milosevic, Klein, Grad, Valentin, Janicic
Value: Vologdin, Poppeck, Spasic, Blachowicz, Urbina, Tybura, Rodriguez, Gugnon, Todorovic, Cowan, Buzukja
Welcome to another early start for the UFC as we head to Serbia. Let’s dive into our picks for the slate!
The main event gives us Uros Medic and Daniel Rodriguez in what could be a fun fight. There’s been a lot of talk about how Medic has a questionable chin but we don’t think that’ll be an issue here against Rodriguez considering he was never much of a knockout artist. We are going to side with Medic here who tends to finish his fights early and we believe he can do so here against Rodriguez. Medic brings a fantastic striking game to go along with power and we feel that it can overwhelm Rodriguez in this spot. If you to side with the value, Rodriguez is viable because if he can survive the first two rounds, there is an unknown on how Medic can be in the later rounds and we know that Rodriguez can bring volume to the table and is a decent striker in his own right. The speed advantage for Medic is huge here though, and we believe Rodriguez will have a tough time getting into any kind of rhythm early on as Medic puts on a striking masterclass.
We are taking a stand early on as we take a shot with the value of Jan Blachowicz in his matchup against prospect Navajo Stirling. There’s been talk on the trajectory in careers of these two fighters. Everyone seems to be down on Blachowicz due to his last win being four years ago. People don’t realize that he’s taken on absolute killers in his last four fights. Stirling on the other hand has had the luxury of being spoonfed soft opponents to ascend him up the rankings. We don’t think Stirling will get the knockout because Blachowicz has proven to be durable against the killers of the division who display more intimidating power than Stirling. If a knockout doesn’t come to fruition for Stirling, this is going to be an extremely close fight. Jan Blochowicz has solid striking and wrestling in his backpocket to make this fight tough on Stirling. We think Jan Blachowicz can squeak out a decision win and make for an interesting value on this slate.
There’s a lot of talk in the next fight as Marcin Tybura takes on Aleksandar Rakic. We are going to take another shot with the value in Marcin Tybura. It is very much known that Rakic has a long reach advantage to go along with power, but we believe that Tybura is experienced enough to know he has to avoid it. The way to avoid it is by making this a clinch fest and potentially dragging this fight to the ground and the later rounds. By doing that, it’ll take away the power of Rakic and will allow for Tybura to have more success with wrestling. This is a good spot for Tybura to bounce back with a win and give us another value on the card.
Our next matchup gives us Robert Valentin and Dusko Todorovic. We are going to side with Robert Valentin in this spot because it’s a favorable matchup for him. The reason we like him is because his length and reach provide a huge help. He’ll be able to hit his opponent at a distance with his jab, which is key to the pressure that Todorovic likes to bring in his fights. In addition, Valentin has solid leg kicks as well that will give Todorovic fits. Lastly, if Todorovic wants to bring pressure it’ll only feed into the gameplan of Valentin as he can take the back and get this fight to the ground to look for a lot of control time or a submission. Robert Valentin is one of the better midrange plays on this slate.
We are going to take a crazy stand siding with another sizable underdog in Gilbert Urbina against Vlasta Crepo. It is a known fact that Crepo is going to come forward because he wants the knockout in front of his home country and that’s what he does best. That’ll play right into our hands because Urbina is a grappler. We would rather have Urbina latch onto Crepo when he brings pressure than chase after him. If Urbina were to chase, that’s where he can leave his chin exposed and dearly pay for it against a power puncher. Urbina’s best chance to win is to weather the storm and then use his wrestling because Crepo is not defensively sound in that department. Crepo also doesn’t have experience with fights that go into the later rounds at the UFC level so we believe that Urbina can take advantage of that. This is a crazy stand but one we do believe in.
The main card opens up with a close matchup between Milos Janicic and Noah Gugnon. We are going to be siding with Janicic because this is a nightmare of a matchup for Gugnon. Janicic has made a name for himself by being a dynamic striker with relentless pressure. That style of fighting is what makes him a fighter that can finish fights. Noah Gugnon fights poorly when having to fend off pressure rather than go forward. To simply put it, we believe that Janicic will overwhelm Gugnon in this spot and find a finish.
The prelims is headlined by Ludovit Klein and Tofiq Musayev. The struggles for Klein tend to come when he faces fighters that are better wrestlers than him. That is not the case here as Klein has the advantage in every aspect. Most importantly, Ludovit Klein is very defensively sound so we don’t expect him to get touched up in this spot either. He’ll likely put on a fantastic striking performance which will give Musayev fits and then mix in the wrestling at various points in this fight to really wear down his opponent. This is another solid midrange play to target on this slate.
Our favorite stud on this slate is Michael Oliveira who takes on Oban Elliot. They are basically feeding Elliot to a wolf here with his durability issues. Michael Oliveira is extremely fast and boasts massive power in his strikes. His counter striking is elite and the jab is extremely annoying to deal with because that simple punch has power in itself. Oliveira doesn’t have to rely on combinations for a finish and we expect Elliot to get finished at some point within the first two rounds.
We have a 50/50 matchup on our hands as Borislav Nikolic takes on Mark Vologdin. This is a major step down in competition for Vologdin compared to his debut against John Castaneda. Borislav Nikolic is there to be hit and that is going to be a problem against Vologdin. Our pick can counter very effectively, put together solid combinations, and generate good volume over the course of three rounds. In addition, it wouldn’t surprise us if Nikolic gets stumbled or finished considering the openings he leaves himself to get hit very flush. We have confidence that Vologdin is the rightful side here in a close matchup.
The next play we like is siding with Bogdan Grad over Dennis Buzukja. This is similar to our last matchup in terms of how hittable Buzukja is. That is going to be a problem against Bogdan Grad who is a technical striker and thrives off of these kinds of opponents. The way to beat Grad is by putting a power puncher in front of him and that is not what we have here. We wouldn’t be surprised to see Grad find a finish at some point in this fight with the sneaky power he carries in his striking game.
Our second favorite stud on this slate is Mateusz Rebecki who takes on Kyle Prepolec. People love Rebecki because he is a relentless fighter that can strike and wrestle. He may be there to get hit but that’s certainly not happening against Prepolec. This is a fun showcase fight for Rebecki who we expect to get a finish early on making him worth the price of admission.
Another stud that will get the job done in dominant fashion is Nina Milosevic as she takes on Hailey Cowan. The grappling is the bread and butter for Milosevic and they have set her up against an opponent that struggles defensively in the grappling department. In addition, Milosevic brings tremendous volume as a solid striker as well. Milosevic is well rounded and capable of putting on a dominant performance making her an intriguing play in GPPs.
We come upon another value on this slate as we side with Alexander Poppeck over Jovan Leka. The reason we are siding with Poppeck is because he is the more aggressive fighter in this spot. Leka is an opportunist capitalizing on counter strikes and capable of finding a submission if the opportunity presents itself. We don’t believe either will be in play here for Leka though because Poppeck’s aggression with his striking will be extremely frustrating to deal with. We believe that Poppeck has upside in this spot to look like the better striker and has the upside for a finish as well.
We saved the worst fight for last as Stephanie Luciano took on Marina Spasic. This is a value or pass situation, as we believe that Marina Spasic is the better striker here but not by much. Luciano isn’t worth considering because if she wins she won’t be optimal. We’d rather side with the value who will have punches followed by roars from the crowd since she is the hometown fighter which always helps if this gets to the scorecards and the judges believe the bigger impact came from Spasic.