Updates: Keith Stewart let slip on Mayo’s show that Cam Young may have an unreported wrist issue. Said he’s avoiding him for sure, then when he slipped about his wrist he shut up real fast like he probably shouldn’t have said it. However, after digging in further on that comment, we think he’s just ignorant to the fact that Cam always wears wrist taping. He seems to be speculating purely based on the wrist tape he saw him wearing, not realizing that’s normal for him. We’re not going to overreact to that. Koepka does seem pretty risky though since he withdrew last week with a wrist issue. I also have a source telling me Wyndham Clark is super confident and loves this course setup. He projects decently well and should be pretty low owned so he’s worth considering as well
The U.S Open has a staunch reputation for being the hardest test in golf. The Masters gets its charm as a “tradition unlike any other” that ushers in spring and the unofficial start of the season. The Open Championship carries the moniker “Forged by Nature” due to the rugged yet natural landscape of links golf throughout the British Isles, connecting the sport to its roots founded nearly 500 years ago. The PGA frankly has no identity at all, which is why it struggles to find a place among its contemporaries. The U.S Open however is defined by not only testing each player by the 14 clubs in their bag, but the 15th club sitting between their ears. This is not a week you can fake it. Forget contending, in order to make the weekend a player has to be in complete control of both his golf ball and emotions. Should they make the cut, it’ll be four days and seventy two holes of high pressure, nerve rattling strategic golf that will truly separate the men from the boys. With that being said, despite the ever tantalizing pursuit by the USGA to “protect par”, no venue stands up to that challenge more than this year’s venue at Shinnecock Hills. William Flynn’s masterpiece, which is the Shinnecock golf course we know today, was completed in 1931 and has stood the test of time ever since. Most courses that have a U.S Open bestowed upon them need endless alterations and tinkering to elevate it to the proper test that is expected (a dancing ballet of mowers and blowers around the surrounds of Oakmont to fluff up the jungle like rough for example), but Shinnecock sits on an exposed sweeping landscape of sand based, wind swept land at the end of Long Island where there is nowhere to hide until your final putt drops on 18. Accuracy off the tee and ball striking will be at a premium, as any error in either will result in a nearly automatic bogey. The course’s prime defense is its firm perched up green complexes that repel anything off the mark, and make it twice as hard to recover. Like Brooks did in 2018, the winner this week will be the player who excels at boring golf. Find the fairway, hit it to 30 feet, and two putt for par. Over and over. Par is your best friend, that is unless one or two of those 30 footers happen to fall and in that case you just gained a full shot on the field. Simply put, this week plays like an Open Championship on a US Open set up. It should be a lot of fun to watch.
From the top of the board, no one exemplifies the ability to play firm, hard, windy links land better than Rory McIlroy. Rory takes a lot of flack for the decade long major draught he suffered through, but especially in recent years, it was not for lack of ability or opportunity. His worst finish in a US Open over the last six years was a T19 last year at a soggy Oakmont, and in that time he has amassed three top 5s and two additional top 10s, including back to back second place finishes in ’23 (LACC) and ’24 (Pinehurst). Rory has been fairly outspoken about what he wants out of the remaining years of his career since completing the grand slam back in April. After his second consecutive win at The Masters, one of those things is to check off a few more big wins at some of the “cathedrals” of the modern game. Shinnecock more than fits that bill. Rory won his first US Open on a rain soaked Congressional back in 2011 to jump start his career, but that win would pale in comparison to pulling off a win here. As time has gone on, Rory’s ability to separate himself from the field when conditions are at their hardest is his best asset, and this week the course set up should play right into his hands.
Just below the top studs we have Cameron Young, a native of Westchester, New York, who is playing some outstanding golf this season with two victories already in just 12 starts. He has performed well in the majors, posting a T3 finish at the Masters and a T26 at the PGA Championship. Last year, in a difficult U.S. Open setup, Young proved he was ready for the challenge, finishing T4. One of the keys to success at the U.S. Open is the ability to grind through tough conditions and avoid the big numbers, which is something Young has done well throughout his career. Over the last 12 months, he ranks 8th in Total Driving and 5th in Strokes Gained: Total, showcasing the complete skill set needed to contend on demanding championship layouts. If he continues to drive the ball the way he has all season and limits costly mistakes, Young not only possesses top-10 upside this week but also has a legitimate chance to capture his first major championship as we saw when he won the difficult PLAYERS Championship.
Like most major boards, you can pick your poison at the top, and then you can target the handful of elite players slotted a bit further down due to softer pricing. Matt Fitzpatrick sticks out here like a sore thumb. While Fitz has been a top level Tour Pro for nearly a decade, this year stands above the rest in his career as a clear peak. His one and only major came back in 2022 at the US Open at Brookline. Despite a bit of a lull in early 2025, he has been continuously ascending to the top in the OWGR. Quite frankly, Fitz does everything well. Elite iron player, world class short game (despite the pretzel your brain will be in watching him chip cross handed), maybe the best putter in the world not named Sam Burns, and his speed and distance gains off the tee over the last three years have been well documented. Among the field, he ranks top 10 tee to green, around the green play, ball striking, bogey avoidance, and is top dog in approach. Not to mention he is an incredible wind player with his ability to flight the ball through all the necessary windows in order to maneuver his way around the blustery landscape Shinnecock presents. He checks all the boxes as a potential major winner this season with three wins already in 2026 and a runner up finish at the Canadian Open coming into this week. He will be pretty popular at this price, but he’s a great selection.
Another guy who rates out really well this week but should come with lower ownership is Chris Gotterup. He’s a two time winner already this season, one to kick off the season at The Sony Open and then a few weeks later when he took down Hideki in a playoff at WMPO. Since that win, Gotterup has mixed in pretty regularly, but has not really popped up to the top of the board. So we figure he might lurk a bit under the radar, despite the fact that he hasn’t missed a cut since February. The biggest asset Gotterup brings is his prowess on the links. If you remember back to last summer, Gotterup burst onto the scene at the Scottish Open when he out-dueled Rory for his first PGA Tour win, and then backed it up with a third place finish at The Open at Royal Portrush, likely the purest links in the world. He has stolen the “Links Master” title from Spieth, but it seems many people still just think of him as a bomber. He is an elite driver of the golf ball and is great at flighting the ball both off the tee and into the green. In rewatching Brooks’s win from 2018, it is shocking to see how many irons Brooks hit off the tee, something Gotterup does very well. This week should set up perfectly for his type of game and the windier it gets the more this US Open should play right into his hands. He’s our favorite play this week and a Must-Have if building just one or two lineups.
Next up in the mid-tier we have Russell Henley, who checks all the boxes this week when it comes to the key statistics for success at the U.S. Open. Over the last five years in major championships, Henley ranks 11th in this field in Strokes Gained: Total while also ranking 3rd in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, a critical skill on the demanding setups typically seen at U.S. Opens. His recent form has been even more impressive. Over the last 12 months, Henley ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total against some of the strongest fields in golf. Looking at his recent U.S. Open results, it’s easy to see why he stands out this week. He has finished 7th, 10th, and 14th in three of the last four U.S. Opens, consistently proving that his game is well-suited for difficult scoring conditions. Henley has also demonstrated that he can close the deal, picking up a win at the Charles Schwab this season to go along with four top-10 finishes and two top-5s in just 13 starts. On a course where par will be a good score, Henley makes for an excellent building block in all formats while still providing plenty of upside for tournament-winning lineups.
In the value tier this week, we have Cameron Smith from LIV Golf, who is still regarded as one of the best short-game players in the world. Known for his elite scrambling and putting ability, Smith possesses exactly the type of skill set that can be successful in a U.S. Open setup where missed greens are inevitable and saving par becomes critical. Smith has also proven time and time again that he can perform on golf’s biggest stages. His major championship resume includes a victory at The Open Championship along with runner-up finishes at both the Masters and U.S. Open. More recently, the last time we saw him compete on the PGA Tour, he finished T7 at the PGA Championship. He followed that up with a 5th-place finish in his most recent LIV Golf start, showing that his game remains in strong form. Being able to roster a player with Smith’s major championship pedigree for under $7,000 on DraftKings makes him one of the more intriguing value options on the board. He provides the salary relief needed to fit in elite players while still carrying enough upside to help your lineups if his short game shines this week.
Also down in the value range sits an Aussie from the sand belt that is no stranger to firm fast windy golf in Min Woo Lee. Min Woo for years was very much a bomb and gauge maven with his supreme distance off the tee and top end short game, but this year he really made the jump to being more of a proper player as he has fine tuned his iron game to be able to contend on the biggest stages. While he has yet to win this season, he has shown he has been able to regularly contend in Signature Events, specifically from his performances at API and Pebble, two places that present a lot of the same elements that Shinnecock will possess. What really sticks out from his season thus far though is how he handled the course and elements at the PGA Championship last month at Aronimink. While Aronimink and Shinnicock have very little in common, the challenge they both present are oddly similar. Both require smart positioning off the tee because angles truly matter, no up and down is guaranteed with penal bunkering surrounding the green complexes, and with the wind we saw in Philly, complete and total ball control is paramount. Min Woo has shown enough this year to believe he has made the leap from ball speed imposter to contender, and a course like Shinnecock that plays as close to Australian golf that you will find in The States is a perfect setting for a true coming out party.
To round out a lineup, there’s a bevy of has-beens and no-names at the bottom of the board that make your stomach turn when you click their names, so any inkling of confidence you can find down here goes miles. Andrew Putnam is that guy for us. Putnam turned pro way back in 2012 and has flirted between that 75-125 range in the OWGR for the last decade for no reason other than he is rather short off the tee. But what he lacks in distance he more than makes up for in iron play and short game. Think Aaron Rai with the ability to putt at an elite level. This season Putnam ranks 3rd in around the green play, 9th in putting, and 2nd in overall short game. The guy can get up and down from anywhere. While US Opens always get billed as long hard tests, this one is unique. Distance certainly helps, but it’s more about keeping the ball in play and making pars instead of bogeys. As a professional, Putnam has made four US Open starts and has yet to miss a cut in any of them. He’s the perfect value play with his bogey avoidant style.
Lastly, I want to add some thoughts on some guys who really stand out in the projections and Vegas odds. Personally, I think that Kurt Kitayama can be avoided because he just doesn’t have the touch around greens to survive here. Maverick McNealy is a really awesome play as he projects as one of the best PT/$ plays while not carrying much ownership. The field never seems to love him because his game is boring, but in the last 6 months he’s #1 on tour in Strokes Gained: Short Game, which combines chipping and putting. His touch around the greens allows him to avoid bogeys really well, which should be the key here. He’s one of the better GPP plays on the board. Si Woo Kim and Sam Burns are just outrageously mispriced with Top 20 odds up around the 10k guys. In lower stakes, they are very strong plays even at 25-30% ownership. In high stakes, they may exceed 50% and that makes them a bit less appealing. Si Woo is probably going to be the chalkiest, and his short game is the most suspect, so he’s the chalk fade we’d rather make while Sam Burns probably has what it takes to thrive here and therefore we’re less inclined to fade him. Lastly, Patrick Cantlay and Adam Scott standout as the other top guys in their pricing tier, where many people will be looking for multiple targets to offset their expensive studs. Both are acceptable plays, but neither is a high priority as they’ve both been mediocre on the greens and around the greens. However, if either can nail it on their approach shots and avoid leaving themselves too many tricky putts, they definitely are capable of contending here.
When it comes to a potential weather advantage, the early morning tee times on Thursday should have less wind than everyone else, and it’s no coincidence that Scottie and Rory are teeing off early as the USGA surely wants them in contention. We don’t think you should worry too much about prioritizing a specific wave, but one GPP strategy we do like in general with crazy conditions is to stack a wave. Even if PM looks worse than AM right now, things can easily flip if conditions change or a delay occurs. Years ago we had a PGA Championship where 30% of lineups had six from the morning wave, and only 1% had six from the afternoon wave, and then a rain delay pushed everything back and essentially flipped the wave advantage to the PM group. Things like that can happen, or the morning could have an edge as predicted. In either case, you need your whole lineup to do well to win a GPP, so correlating them makes sense if it fits. Don’t force in worse plays to make it happen, but if you notice your lineup is already five guys in one wave, then it might be worth swapping out the other guy to have a full wave stack.