At this point in the season, I’m writing these articles assuming you probably need two picks per week, maybe even three.
If you’re in a contest where you just need one team, and the Seahawks are somehow still available to you, then pick them. I doubt that’s the case though. The next best team in single entry is the Chargers, who very well might be available to you. In any new-ish contest, you should have them, and they are clearly optimal. The Chargers and Seahawks have almost no future value and are this week’s biggest favorites, which makes them clear and obvious top plays if you can use them.
The next tier of plays includes the Patriots, Dolphins, Eagles, Rams, and Jaguars. Some of these teams you’re more likely to have available than others. If you can play the Patriots, they are a priority as they have minimal future value. The Rams could be valuable in Week 18, but I don’t like saving teams for Week 18 because I expect to get some random big spreads with playoff teams resting starters. So I’d love to use them here if I have them.
The teams I would think most of you have are the Dolphins Eagles and Jaguars, and that’s the order that I like them. I don’t anticipate using the Dolphins again and this is a spot where they have the same odds to win as many other teams on this slate. The Jaguars have surprisingly just as many good matchups remaining as the Eagles with similar expected odds in all of them, including this week. I would anticipate them to be much higher owned this week because the Eagles have a worse record than the Bears, so people will probably be uncomfortable using them here. Who do you feel better about targeting? The 8-4 Bears or the 1 win Titans? The fact is, the Eagles and Jags have the same odds to win (because the Bears are frauds), and they have the same future utility, so this is a tailor-made opportunity to capitalize on ownership leverage.
In Loser’s pools, we’ve done great so far, but all the big underdogs have gone down so we haven’t gained much ground on the field. The clear optimal pick this week is the Vikings. They’re starting an UDFA QB and the team is just not very good. They are the biggest underdogs of the week and this is the last time the Vikings are likely to be huge underdogs, so it’s definitely the time to use them. The next best pick is the Panthers. Even though they’re playing decently well, the Rams are elite and the Panthers are very unlikely to be bigger underdogs at any point in the future. The next best team to use is the Giants, as they may not even be more than a field goal underdog again with their super weak schedule. At New England is a brutal matchup even though they’re playing pretty well, so we definitely want to use them now. No other teams are clearly best to use this week. Others are big underdogs, but will be again in the future.