Optimal Plays:
QBs: Prescott, Fields
RBs: Mason, Pollard, White
WRs: Lamb, Lockett, Bell/Conley
TEs: McBride, Ferguson, Everett
D/ST: Chargers, Cowboys
Top GPP Plays:
QBs: Taylor, Darnold
RBs: Ekeler, Jones, Rivers
WRs: A.J. Brown, Adams, Dortch
TEs: Kraft, any of the optimal TEs
D/ST: Chiefs, Packers
Top Stacks:
DAL: Dak + Lamb + Ferguson/Pollard with no run back
NYG/PHI: Taylor naked with AJ Brown run back
CHI/GB: Fields + Moore with A. Jones run back
SF: Darnold + Bell/Conley/Mason with Rivers or no run back
This is the biggest afternoon slate we’ve had all year, so a lot of this writeup will be similar to the Main Slate writeup as many of our favorite plays are on both slates.
Week 18 is always fun because we have a lot more to analyze than just the matchups and the film. We have to consider which teams might rest players, who will step up in those absences, and which players might beg for more volume to hit contract incentives. If you think that last proposition is silly, we have actually done really well pursuing the right spots with this, and we have mic’d up video evidence of multiple players asking their QBs to help them hit their incentives. Nobody on the sideline has any reason not to help their guy out in this spot. It’s money out of the owner’s pocket into their teammate’s pocket. Of course they’re on board to help with that if they can.
I think the best example of this in Week 18 is DeAndre Hopkins. He needs 7 catches and 49 yards to make $1.25 million. I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t secure at least 7 catches for 49 yards, which means betting his over on receptions is an elite move.
Austin Ekeler is another guy worth discussing as he needs 110 total yards to make $100K. I’ve seen people saying this one won’t happen because the team won’t let him. I don’t understand why there’s a belief that we can predict which team owners might ask their coaches to nerf the incentive opportunities. I doubt any of them are sweating these incentives, let alone preparing to meddle with the outcome by asking the coaches to collude with them. If people aren’t believers in Ekeler wanting this free $100K then I’m happy to buy in. He projects really well anyway as I said on the podcast, and his ownership should be quite low, so he’s all around a great play.
We’ll start with the offense that has a 30-point team total. Dak Prescott comes in as our first optimal target at the quarterback position. Detroit has been struggling against the pass, and Prescott made them pay last Saturday night, throwing for 345 yards and two touchdowns, averaging over nine yards per attempt. Prescott now gets a mouth-watering matchup with the Commanders who he shredded on Thanksgiving. On Turkey day, Dak threw for 331 yards and four touchdowns en route to 35.24 DraftKings points. Dallas needs a win to secure the division and number two seed, so we’ll likely see the starters for most of the game. Dallas will likely only pull the starters if they get way ahead, which isn’t worth worrying about, because if Dallas gets way ahead, it’s likely that Dak put them in that position with a great fantasy day.
Justin Fields is our other optimal target on this slate, as he has elite rushing upside and may want to prove himself one more time heading into an offseason where the team will consider drafting a QB to replace him. My only issue with Fields is that I don’t think that narrative is worth as much to his actual projection as it’s going to be worth to his ownership. He’s a solid option that has an easy stacking partner with DJ Moore, but I worry he could end up chalkier than people think. The matchup is solid as the Packers defense has been pretty bad lately, but they’ve really been gashed on the ground, and when the Bears are running well it sometimes kills Fields’ upside. Note that I didn’t include Moore in the header because we prefer Adams and Brown, but if using Fields then you probably want to use Moore.
In GPPs there are two value QBs that we like in Tyrod Taylor and Sam Darnold.
Tyrod Taylor draws the start again for New York, and he profiles as an interesting tournament option in a smash spot. The Eagles have allowed the most DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and Taylor looked good in relief against them on Christmas day. He came in for Tommy DeVito, throwing for 133 yards and a touchdown while scrambling for 21 yards on the ground. He built on that last week against the Rams, throwing for 319 yards and a touchdown while adding 40 yards on the ground en route to 22.76 DraftKings points.
Another cheap quarterback option in tournaments is Sam Darnold, who looked competent when we saw him in relief for Brock Purdy against the Ravens. He likely won’t have the 49ers’ full battleship of weapons on Sunday, but he’ll be going against a Rams’ defense without Aaron Donald, and likely a few other important pieces. The 49ers offensive system is still elite, Darnold is competent, and the Rams’ defense is nothing to be afraid of without their top guys. I doubt many people will go all the way down to Darnold so you should get him very low owned.
At running back, Jordan Mason, Tony Pollard, and Zamir White check in as your optimal backs.
We still want to make sure that Eli Mitchell isn’t announced as the main guy, but Jordan Mason looks like the optimal cheap back this week in all formats. Christian McCaffrey is already ruled out, and Mitchell is utilized at times with the first team, and has been fairly fragile. There’s little competition for touches in this backfield if Mitchell is out, and Mason comes in as our top Pt/$ option at the position. This matchup is nothing to be afraid of, and Shanahan will likely feed his young back in an attempt to keep the clock moving and get his guys out of there. That being said, there is clearly risk here as nobody knows for sure that Mitchell be rested. They could easily use Mitchell as the backup or go all the way to the 4th stringer Davis-Price. In cash he’s a lock but a fade in GPPs offers nice leverage. That being said, everyone projected Mason as such massive chalk right out the gate this week, so I think most content creators spent the week telling people he was fadable. If everyone is going to fade this chalk and leave him under 40% owned, then he’s totally worth using, but on the afternoon slate I doubt as many people fade him. I’ll keep monitoring it leading up to lock, but I think I’ll likely take the optimal play. I do like pivoting to Rivers in the deep value range if you want to get off the chalk and punt an RB spot with a guy who has upside to be the workhorse for the Rams.
The Tony Pollard rollercoaster has been fun for *checks notes* no one. He rarely tops 20 DraftKings points, and he struggles to get in the end zone. However, maybe this week will be different! In all seriousness, we have Pollard at a very cheap price tag in the offense with the highest implied team total on the slate. His best game of the year came on Thanksgiving in this same matchup, where he ran for 79 yards and a touchdown while catching six balls. There are plenty of other viable backs for tournaments in the same price range, but Pollard looks like a strong target in cash formats.
Zamir White figures to get another heavy dose of work as Las Vegas is playing this game straight up. White has at least 21 opportunities in three straight games, including 11 targets over the stretch. Las Vegas trailed for much of last week’s game, and White still saw 20 carries and six targets, showing he’s game-script independent. Denver has allowed the most yards per carry to opposing backs, and second-most DraftKings points per game to the position as a whole. I think people have fatigue playing Zamir every week lately, and therefore some people will be more interested in the new hot commodities and fade him, but on this afternoon slate he’s pretty clearly the top RB play so don’t expect to get him low owned by any means.
There are a multitude of options at the running back position in tournaments this week, but there are a few in particular that I really like.
Austin Ekeler is my favorite option. If you read the opening blurb, you already know he’s a strong tournament target. He needs 110 total yards for $100K, and he projects well for us. Kansas City has already ruled out some starters on the defensive side of the ball, making this matchup far easier. Some incentives aren’t worth buying into at high ownership, but that isn’t the case here. Ekeler is going to be low owned with a very realistic incentive in a plus matchup (due to Kansas City injuries/rest). He’s a strong tournament play as we also saw an interview with his coach saying Ekeler is their feature back and they plan to give him a lot of work. It feels like the field isn’t paying all that much attention to him, making him an awesome play in GPPs.
Aaron Jones is another good GPP play as he has been fed the rock since returning from injury, with 62 total opportunities over the past three weeks. He hasn’t found the end zone, but has averaged 15.13 DraftKings points over the stretch, showing his strong role. He torched Chicago back in Week 1 for 26.7 DraftKings points, and now AJ Dillon isn’t in the picture to vulture goal line touches from Jones. If Jones can find himself on the right side of touchdown variance, he likely smashes his tag and is optimal on this slate.
At wide receiver, CeeDee Lamb, Tyler Lockett, and the 49ers value WRs are the optimal targets at the wide receiver position.
CeeDee Lamb comes first, fresh off a stellar performance against the Lions. He caught 13-of-17 targets for 227 yards and a touchdown, marking his third game of 40+ DraftKings points on the year. He’s been a model of efficiency, with 20+ DraftKings points in eight different games. He didn’t do too much in the first matchup with Washington, but this is a matchup we’ve been circling all season long. Washington has allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s on the season.
Tyler Lockett burned us last week, but we have to include him in the optimal section on this slate as he’s underpriced for his role in an offense with a very high total. This offense can be frustrating to target receivers from given the inconsistent game plans, but the Cardinals are a great matchup and there really aren’t that many other mid-range options that fit the optimal build. I’m not planning to prioritize Lockett in GPPs, but he fits nicely in cash builds.
With San Francisco likely resting all of their key guys, Ronnie Bell and Chris Conley are very cheap for two guys likely playing the majority of the game. If stacking Darnold, you can pick one or both of them and surround your lineup with studs due to the salary savings. They’re both tied for the best PT/$ WRs on this slate, and are miles ahead of the other options. It’s hard to distinguish between them, but I think Bell will be more popular so he’s optimal in cash games while Conley is better in GPPs. Both are great punts at the wide receiver position.
There are some interesting options in tournaments on this afternoon slate.
AJ Brown is going overlooked on the Main Slate, but he’ll of course have some ownership on this slate. It should still be a bit less than Lamb though, making him the top GPP stud pivot. The Eagles are set to be without DeVonta Smith which could lead to Brown getting peppered with targets. Philadelphia has incentive to play this game to win, as they could steal the division if Dallas was to lose to Washington. The Giants have allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers, and their style of defense profiles nicely for Brown’s usage. The Giants deploy a very man and blitz-heavy unit, and Brown is Hurts’ go to guy in both situations. Add in the fact that he may see extra targets with Smith sidelined, and Brown is an elite tournament target.
Davante Adams also figures to go overlooked in this spot despite being fresh off a 21-target game. He caught 13 balls for 126 yards and two touchdowns against the Colts, posting one of the quietest 40-point DraftKings point performances we’ve ever seen. Denver has been stout against opposing receivers, but Adams has had success in this matchup since joining Las Vegas, with 9/101/0, 7/142/2, and 6/66/0.
With so many great value plays available on the slate that weren’t there last week, people may overlook the guys who have been there for weeks. At running back, this could be Zamir White, who is in a great spot but perhaps isn’t as exciting to use now that he’s been chalk for the past couple weeks. At wide receiver, I think Greg Dortch is a great example. People are fatigued from guessing on the Cardinals value WRs, and I doubt many people will try again this week. However, the answer is pretty clear when Hollywood is out. Dortch leads their receivers in targets almost every time we get this spot, and he’s averaging 13.8 PPG over the last two weeks. He remains very cheap and should be pretty low owned as people are more focused on other WRs. .
Trey McBride, Jake Ferguson, and Gerald Everett are your optimal targets at the tight end position.
McBride has had an elite role with Kyler Murray under center, with at least seven targets in all seven games with Murray. He’s flashed an impressive ceiling as well, with three games above 20 DraftKings points, and legitimate 100-yard bonus upside. Seattle has been a middling defense against tight ends, and they’ve been crumbling as of late. If paying up at tight end, McBride is an easy click.
Washington has actually been solid against tight ends, but that has more to do with them getting trounced by wide receivers and running backs as opposed to them being stout against the position. Ferguson has seen eight targets in four of the past five games, and has a nice combination of floor and ceiling. He has double-digit DraftKings points in eight games this year, and that includes him not playing a full-time role for the first half of the year. If you can’t get up to McBride in optimal formats, Ferguson makes a lot of sense.
If you need value, Gerald Everett fits really nicely on this slate. He may carry quite a bit of ownership as a high projecting value option that fills the TE spot, but he is a good play. He’s underperformed his opportunities so far with Stick, but he’s getting nice volume due to all the WR injuries the Chargers are dealing with. He’s had 8+ targets in four straight games, and the Chiefs will be resting a few of their best defensive players. This is a really nice spot for a value TE. The only reason he didn’t make the main slate header is because I think Juwan Johnson and Johnny Mundt are better plays that are a bit sneakier for GPPs.
In tournaments, I’d probably just use one of the three optimal guys. Tucker Kraft is an option if you really want to go off the board as he’s had a nice role lately with 6 targets in four of his last five games. Musgrave is questionable though, so if he plays then you probably don’t want to use Kraft.
At defense, your optimal targets are the Cowboys and Chargers.
These two targets are pretty self-explanatory. The Cowboys get the dream defensive matchup against a Washington offense that concedes a ton of sacks. They need to win so they’ll have all their starters going against a struggling Washington offense. The Chargers will be matched up against Blaine Gabbert and the Chiefs’ backups. These are the two top defenses in terms of projected points, but the Chargers are the better option in terms of PT/$ value. As usual, defensive scoring is flukey, so looking elsewhere in tournaments is viable.
Our top tournament targets would be the Chiefs and Packers. The Chiefs are resting some starters since they don’t need to win, and that lack of motivation narrative might keep their ownership low. The matchup against Stick is a good one, as he’s been making a lot of turnover worthy plays. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the Chiefs defense score a touchdown off a mistake from Stick. The Packers are another sneaky option as people probably don’t want to target Fields when there are so many weaker QBs to pick a defense against. The fact is, the Packers D projects well. I don’t think people will follow the projections here because it feels weird targeting Fields instead of all the no-name QBs, but I think this is a good spot to trust the projections while getting leverage against a QB that will have some ownership.