Optimal Plays:
QB: Daniels, Murray
RB: Mason, Robinson, Conner
WR: Rice, Harrison, McLaurin, Tucker
TE: Bowers, Higgins
D/ST: 49ers, Browns
GPP Plays:
QB: Watson, Purdy
RB: Ford, Stevenson
WR: Samuel, Cooper, Meyers, Wilson, Dortch
TE: Ertz, Kittle
D/ST: Cardinals, Raiders
Chalk Fades: Aiyuk
Week 4’s Afternoon Slate is here and we have four games of action to round out the full slates for the week. We are excited about what it has to offer and will dive right in.
Jayden Daniels is looking like a prime version of Michael Vick in the early going of his career and he gets a matchup against an extremely exposable Arizona Cardinals squad this week. He has carried the ball nearly 13 times per game this season and ran for 3 TDs. Arizona has allowed the 11th most fantasy points to opposing QBs this year and got shredded by Josh Allen on the ground in Week 1. You cannot go wrong with Daniels as the top QB on this slate. On the other side of this one, Kyler Murray also looks elite against the Commanders. Like Daniels, Kyler has extremely strong upside both with his arm and with his legs. Daniels does stand out as the clear optimal choice here but Murray is the 1B to his 1A.
In tournaments, Deshaun Watson projects as one of the better non-Daniels or Murray values on the slate and gets to go up against a Raiders D that was just piecemealed by the Carolina Panthers and Andy Dalton last week. One of the best parts about both Watson is that he has one very clear stacking option that you can easily pair with him, making him even more appealing than he otherwise would be. Brock Purdy is facing off with the Patriots and is in play now that he seemingly has his full complement of weapons back in the fold. With both Deebo Samuel and Kittle expected to play today, Purdy can be used as a pivot off the chalkier options here. With that being said, we do feel there is a strong drop-off between the top three options of Daniels/Murray/Watson and the rest of the QBs on this slate. We would probably prefer to stick with one of the three of them when all is said and done.
Turning to the RBs, we start once again with Jordan Mason, who still grades out as the best value option, but is now much closer to the field than he has been. That makes him an easy play in cash contests, but he has shown no receiving upside to speak of, and that significantly limits the ceiling he is going to flash without sun running into two or three scores. With most of the main bodies back for SF here, we would most likely stick to playing Mason in optimal lineups while feeling empowered to pivot off of him in GPPs. While we won’t get them quite as low-owned as on the main slate, the tailbacks in the Arizona/Washington game are one of our favorite ways to get exposure to that one. Brian Robinson will be playing for the Commanders in a spot without Austin Ekeler this week. That will shoot his receiving upside through the roof and he already was getting targeted by Daniels relatively frequently. With the majority of Ekeler’s targets also flooding to him, he has elite tournament upside and is one of our favorite plays of the week. The same can be said for James Conner. While he had a poor game last week in a bad game script against the Lions, he had averaged 18.5 carries per game over the first two weeks. Benson has 16 carries for 31 yards through three weeks and 11 came when they were drudging the Rams in Week 2. In competitive games, he has a grand total of 5 carries and he is no threat to Conner’s work. We love both of these backs and they can be used in all formats, especially if you pivot off of Mason.
Jerome Ford is a super strong tournament pivot in the afternoon. He grades out quite similarly to all three of the aforementioned backs and is projected for a fraction of their ownership. After a weird Week 2, he bounced back last week to pick up 10 carries for the Browns and was targeted 4 times as well. The Raiders have given up the most fantasy points to opposing running backs for any team in the NFL this year, so the matchup is elite for Ford as well. Lastly, Rhamondre Stevenson is going to be egregiously low-owned given the dud he threw up in the last game for the Pats. Their only real path to success once again is to ride him to victory, so we shouldn’t be surprised to see a heavy workload from him once again here. He doesn’t grade out as well as the other top backs on the slate from a value perspective but there is clear upside he has already shown on multiple occasions this season that he can hit.
We now arrive at the pass catchers for this afternoon’s slate. Rashee Rice is an obvious optimal selection once again. He has 29 targets through three weeks and has either 100+ yards or a score in every game so far. Without Pacheco and with Kelce looking old as dirt now, he is the featured man in this offense and carries elite upside on every slate he is on. He’s a lock for cash games and very solid in GPPs as well. With Davante Adams out for the Raiders, Tre Tucker will look to build on his explosion from last Sunday when he caught 7 balls for 96 yards and a touchdown. He is egregiously cheap and is mispriced for the starting role he is going to hold for Las Vegas, making him a top-value option in all formats once again. Marvin Harrison, Jr. continues to impress in the early going this season after a massive dud in Week 1. He does have 3 TDs on 10 total receptions through three weeks and we do expect that rate to regress negatively as the season wears on. However, the Commanders are quite possibly the worst defense in the league against opposing WR1s dating back to last season, so this does not project as the spot for it to happen. He is yet another elite option here. Finally, Terry McLaurin does project pretty highly-owned here as the primary receiving weapon for Daniels. We are not super high on him, simply because he has not been getting peppered by Jayden thus far. He had a big game last week but it was just 4 catches for 100 yards. He certainly can be used, but he does come in a bit behind these other optimal options for us.
Before getting to our top GPP options, we do want to address Brandon Aiyuk. He continues to project as one of the higher-owned receivers with all of the injuries for the 49ers and we do not think that is chalk we would like to eat. He has metrics that keep telling people he is gaining a ton of separation and is wide open…and yet his QB is not getting him the football. Jennings was the target of choice last week and we would much rather play these other optimal options this week than try to time an Aiyuk breakout game when he’s chalk.
For GPP purposes, Deebo Samuel is projected for egregiously low ownership in comparison to his teammates in Aiyuk and Jennings. He is the clear alpha here and we think you can get great leverage on this spot by deploying Deebo rather than some of the others. Most people won’t get there because they want to play Rice and Harrison. The spot is far less optimal than those two to be clear. However, he projects as very similar value to Harrison in particular and makes for a great GPP pivot. Amari Cooper had been ripe for positive regression as we had been calling out prior to last week, and we got it and then some with his 27.6 fantasy point effort that saw him catch 2 TDs and receive 12 targets from Watson. The Raiders just were shredded by Diontae last week and a similar game from Amari could be in store. He is an excellent stack with Watson. With most people flocking to Tucker’s value, Jakobi Meyers can be used as the pivot off of him on his own team. We have seen big Jakobi games in the past and he certainly could have another in store here. Lastly, we wouldn’t play both of them together, but deploying one of Michael Wilson or Greg Dortch is a great way to get exposure to the Cardinals in tourneys. With McBride out, a ton of targets are going to open up for the other options and both of them have plenty of value upside here.
Tight-end-wise, people will continue to flock to Brock Bowers week after week it seems, and we just don’t see it. The Raiders changed signal callers to AOC last week mid-game and Bowers did nothing after that. With Mayer looming to eat into his snap share as well, we think there are better options. The issue with this afternoon slate is that the options are quite limited. We will call him optimal, but we are not super keen on eating his chalk. Elijah Higgins is filling in for McBride and projects as the top value here. He will be the second-highest-owned tight-end option. We haven’t seen much of anything from him historically, so it seems like people are just banking on him soaking up some of McBride’s role. We would most likely prefer to pivot to the GPP options. Speaking of them, while the field keeps throwing darts at a dart board that have a legit 1-2 point floor, Zach Ertz is as safe as they come in the Washington offense right now. He is not going to blow your mind with what he has done so far but he has averaged 4 catches per game and 42.7 yards per game, both numbers that would combine for a very serviceable fantasy performance from a TE. He has not yet found the end zone, but if he were to do so, those serviceable scores would become just what the doctor ordered. He is a great way to get cheaper exposure to this game at low ownership. George Kittle is the final GPP option here as he is always viable to explode on any slate. When you can get him for low ownership, it is always worth taking a stab at his upside. He is a direct pivot off of Bowers price-wise, making him even lower-owned.
In terms of defenses, the SF D/ST is the clear optimal choice in their matchup with the Patriots. Jacoby Brissett has not been able to do much at all this season and they should be able to hold them in check. With that being said, we question their ultimate upside because the Pats are going to skew very run-heavy. As a result, their chances to house one drop significantly. The other optimal choice is the CLE D/ST. They are our favorite option on this slate as they are going against a Raiders squad that is undergoing a QB controversy and is without their alpha receiver. In GPPs, you can deploy either the ARI D/ST or the LV D/ST. Our favorite of this bunch is probably the Cardinals simply because Daniels is liable to come back down to earth at some point. However, as mentioned, the Cleveland defense is the top dog for us. Best of luck!