Captain: Brown (Optimal), Alvarez (GPP), Smith (Value)
Flex: Pena, Parades, Walker, Altuve, Trammell, Diaz, Varsho, Donavan, Canzone, Raleigh, Young, Naylor, Hader, Ferrer, Munoz
Fade/Stand: Bryan Woo
Welcome to a fun showdown slate as we have a fun one in Houston as the Astros host the Seattle Mariners for the rubber match. We have a huge stand, one that Jmac is going to like since he was on the Bryan Woo fade last week against New York. Bryan Woo got very lucky in that game with a lot of hard hit balls straight to players. We don’t believe that same luck will continue here and we want to fade him at his likely mega ownership.
Let’s start with our optimal captain options which is Houston ace Hunter Brown. He has strikeout rates of 25% to LHH and 23% to RHH. He’ll get to face six batters with strikeout rates above 21% which feeds into his upside. The X stats look good for Brown as he holds LHH to a rate of (.184/.339) and RHH to a rate of (.071/.242). This is the ideal captain option in cash game contests.
Since we are fading Bryan Woo, let’s dive into the bats that we want for the Houston stack. The fastball is the primary pitch for Bryan Woo so that is what we want to target. Jeremy Pena, Yordan Alvarez, Isaac Parades, Daulton Varsho, Christian Walker, Taylor Trammell, Cam Smith, and Yainer Diazhave had success against the fastball this year. Jose Altuve is viable due to the hot series he is having against Seattle. Our favorite options are Yordan Alvarez as the top stud and Cam Smith as the value piece.
If you are looking for Seattle one-off’s, we would either go to the LHH or relievers which we’ll cover in the next section. We want to fade Seattle RHH since Brown has been dominant against them. When Brown does struggle, it tends to come against lefties so Brendan Donovan, Dominic Canzone, JoshNaylor, Cole Young, and Cal Raleigh are viable options to consider.
If you are looking to free up salary, we like Andres Munoz and Jose Ferrer for Seattle. On the other side of things, the only reliever we would touch for Houston is Josh Hader.
Good luck everyone!