Pitching: Snell (SP1), Imanaga (SP2), McLean (GPP 1), Perez (Deep GPP), Valdez (Value), Mitch Bratt (Punt/GPP)
Hitting: LAD (Optimal cash) KC (GPP 1), ATL(GPP 2), CHC (GPP 3), CWS (leverage GPP)
Fades/Stands: No Ohtani in Dodger stacks, Imanaga GPP fade
Weather: DET/PIT potential for a late start, but should be clear after that.
Welcome to an interesting seven-game Monday slate. This slate will center around the Dodgers at Coors Field playing against a poor pitcher in Tomoyuki Sugano. The stand for today is to fade Ohtani. He will be carrying massive ownership today in what will be a very popular Dodgers stack. Ohtani is obviously in a great spot and an awesome cash game play, but in GPPs we think one way to get unique is to stack the Dodgers without him. Sugano’s best pitch to lefties is the splitter, a pitch he throws 33% of the time and allows a .125 xISO against, and is one of the few pitches Ohtani does not have success against, which helps justify the fade a bit. If we’re drawing up a game plan against him, we’d have Sugano throw him tons of splitters and be willing to just walk him if he doesn’t bite. Given he costs so much and a walk isn’t all that useful, if they pitch around him, he could certainly bust at this price. The other Dodgers bats don’t project to be crazy chalky, and just about all Dodgers stacks will probably have him, so you could capture a unique stack with a 7-run total.
The optimal pitcher for this slate is Blake Snell. Snell will be very highly owned after dominating in his first start back from the injured list vs. Kansas City. At $9,000 on DK, Snell brings significant strikeout upside against a Rockies team that struggles mightily against left-handed pitchers. Moniak, Castro, and Tovar all have strikeout rates north of 27% vs. lefties. While the sample this season has been small, Snell still generates whiffs at over a 19% clip while allowing very little power. He is a must in cash and is tough to fade in GPPs with so few solid pitching options on tonight’s slate, but it is conceivable that a fade could work given that he’s pitching in Coors.
The optimal pairing with Snell this evening is Shota Imanaga, who has a solid point/$ projection and will carry fairly large ownership. Imanaga has been solid against righties this year but has struggled with power against lefties lately. His splitter has been his big whiff pitch at 32.5% to lefties and 23% to righties. The wind will be blowing in today at Wrigley, which will also benefit Shota. Due to his projection and so few solid pitching options today, Imanaga is a solid cash game play, but in GPPs, the damage he has allowed against his fastball gives us some pause, as he is allowing batters from both sides xISOs north of .200 against the pitch. Given that he throws it nearly 40% of the time, it could cause some trouble for him, with multiple White Sox boasting solid numbers against lefty fastballs like Munetaka Murakami (.195/.398), Miguel Vargas (.366/.361), and Braden Montgomery (.254/.407), to name a few. Overall, he has the strikeout upside to allow a few solo shots and still remain optimal, but if the White Sox were to string a few hits together and provide the big blow with guys on base, they could make for a great leverage stack in GPPs and Imanaga a great fade.
The next pitcher we like that will see lower ownership than he would on a typical night is Nolan McLean. With Snell and Dodgers hitters being popular tonight, it would be very difficult to fit McLean and Snell together. Being $800 more expensive than Snell, the path to being optimal is difficult but not impossible. This Padres lineup isn’t super intimidating, but they walk at a pretty high rate and strike out less than average, so they can be annoying to have a pitcher against. That said, McLean is absolutely dominating righties lately, and the Padres are giving him five, which is rare to see when a guy has splits like this. McLean’s sinker has held righties to a .114 xISO and lefties to a .077 xISO, so that’s working to both sides, but lefties are hitting his fastball well, while righties are not. He will have to be careful here against Cronenworth, Merrill, and Sheets. Those three are a viable mini-stack if you don’t use McLean, but if you do, we like his upside to mow down these righties. He’s got a .050 xISO allowed and .172 xwOBA to righties in the last 30 days, with a crazy 15.5% swinging strike rate and 35% K rate. All season, he’s destroyed righties, which is why he’s seen three times more lefties in the last month. The Padres don’t have much of a choice because they aren’t benching guys like Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts, or France. They just don’t really have the depth to play the matchup here, and those guys all strike out at 18% or more, which isn’t a big number, but it’s also not impossible to get them like Luis Arraez-type guys. There’s a wide range of outcomes here for McLean because those lefties could definitely tag his fastball, but that’s what makes him a good GPP play.
Providing some value at comparable ownership to Imanaga is Framber Valdez. Valdez allows the salary relief to fit in Dodger bats, but he is likely not someone who will break the slate. The Pirates have a lot of righties, and Valdez is only able to generate strikeouts in 13.5% of his at-bats vs. righties. The Pirates as a team are not terrific by any means against left-handed pitchers and have youth playing, so Valdez isn’t a bad play, just not a high-ceiling one either. You’ll need the other arms to bust for Valdez to be the nuts, but he will probably give you a decent score if you want to fade the chalk.
A sneaky GPP play that will carry next to no ownership is Martin Perez at $7,300. Perez is a pivot off Valdez that offers a little higher upside with strikeouts. Perez has been very consistent as of late and has used his sinker/changeup combination nicely against right-handed hitters. Over the past month, Perez has generated a 23% whiff rate to right-handed hitters with his changeup, up from 16% on the season. The Twins have several hitters in their lineup that whiff a lot at changeups. Where Perez carries significantly more risk is that the Twins hit left-handed sinkers well, so there’s a wider range of outcomes here than Valdez carries, but that’s our preferred type of play in GPPs.
After the top guys, the pitching is a bit of a crapshoot, with ownership consolidating on a few guys towards the top of the projections. That opens up an opportunity to target a guy with a very low floor but a high ceiling to take a stab at in GPPs. Tonight, that is Mitch Bratt. Bratt has been inconsistent in his eight starts for Arizona but is a pitcher that has shown an ability to rack up some strikeouts. Against lefties, over the past 30 days, Bratt has an xISO allowed of .069 and an xwOBA of .216. Rafaela, Duran, and Sogard all have high strikeout rates against left-handed pitchers. With such a cheap price tag and limited options on this slate, if Bratt can go six innings of 2-run ball with 5 Ks, he could more than pay off his price and end up in the optimal build at low ownership.
Moving on to the bats, the optimal stack of the slate and the team everyone will be trying to jam into their lineup is the Dodgers. Not only do they get the benefit of playing this game at Coors Field, they will also face an extremely hittable pitcher we mentioned earlier in Tomoyuki Sugano. As a result, their implied total is close to 7 runs, which is 2 runs higher than the next closest team. Sugano has given up a .291 xISO to lefties and a .212 xISO to righties. He may be the luckiest pitcher in recent memory in baseball, as he has somehow won 12 games this season despite an xERA near 7 and an xBA against coming in at .309. His strikeout rate is equal to his barrel rate, which are both in the worst one percent of pitchers. Go ahead and pick your poison here. Ohtani ($7,000) has a .259 xISO / .414 wOBA vs. righties this season. Freddie Freeman is at .200/.383, Muncy: .237/.356, and Feduccia as a cheap catcher at .151/.325. Betts and Teoscar are in play too as right-handed bats. Really the whole lineup is viable because the bullpen will then come in and pitch poorly as well. Trying to use some of the more unique Dodgers could be the move. A fade is theoretically viable in GPPs because they will be so popular, but just keep in mind you’ll probably be miserable.
For GPP stacks tonight, Kansas City jumps out as an interesting team. The Royals face right-handed pitcher Mason Barnett. Barnett, against left-handed hitters, has only a 14.1% strikeout rate and an 8% whiff rate. His .270 ISO and .377 wOBA are also concerning. Jac Caglianone has excellent numbers against all of Barnett’s pitches. Overall, he is .254/.393 vs. righties but boasts better numbers than that against Barnett’s three best pitches. Michael Massey and John Rave provide salary relief. Massey has excellent x-stats against curveballs and sliders, while Rave has crushed fastballs since joining the team. Bobby Witt is .190/.369 vs. righties, and Salvy Perez destroys fastballs to the tune of .223/.352.
Next, we have the Atlanta Braves facing Bailey Ober. Ober has been dreadful against lefties this season, as his xISO is .251 and xwOBA is .344. Matt Olson is an elite play, as his x-stats against fastballs are .394/.456, with an xISO of .216 vs. changeups, the two most popular pitches Ober throws. Drake Baldwin, Michael Harris, and Ozzie Albies all crush right-handed fastballs and are firmly in play as well.
The Chicago Cubs did not have a great weekend series against the Cardinals but look to bounce back vs. the White Sox with a favorable matchup for their lefties against Luis Castillo. Castillo has allowed them a line of .214/.352 while striking them out just 18% of the time. As a result, we love the LHH in this Cubs lineup like Pete Crow-Armstrong (.252 xISO), Ian Happ (xISO .206), Michael Conforto, and Michael Busch, who all have excellent power numbers against right-handers and Castillo’s pitch mix.
Ultimately, this slate will come down to the Dodgers. They are by far the best offense on the slate and have the best pitching matchup as well. For GPPs, having a more balanced build could be worthwhile so you aren’t automatically punting multiple positions. The idea of fading Ohtani for GPPs is strictly from a leverage spot, as obviously he’s very good, but the high price tag and ownership aren’t ideal, so fading him allows you to make a much more unique build.